Twins vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Sunday, August 13 (Twins Hit Lefties Now)

The Twins and Phillies have split the first two games of this three-game weekend series in Philadelphia.
Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers (27)
Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers (27) / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Both of the first two games of this weekend series between the Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies have been lopsided ones. In Game 1, the home team took a 13-2 win at Citizens Bank Park and then yesterday the Twins responded with an 8-1 win behind two homers from Joey Gallo. The Twins are now 61-58 and the Phillies are 65-53.

Gallo may not even be in the lineup today because Ranger Suarez will take the mound for the Phillies against Sonny Gray. Gray is 5-5 with a 3.18 ERA in 23 starts this season while Suarez is 2-5 in his 16 starts with a 3.96 ERA.

The Phillies are very slim home favorites despite how great Sonny Gray has been on the mound this year. 

Twins vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Twins vs. Phillies prediction and pick

This is an interesting matchup for the Twins because most teams should be excited to face a pitcher like Suarez. He has a 4.49 xERA along with a 16th percentile xBA and a 31st percentile strikeout rate. That last part is especially important because Minnesota has struck out the most of any team this year. From the sound of that this is a great chance for the Twins to take the rubber match.

However, the Twins have been one of the worst teams hitting lefties this year. They are 26th in team OPS, but have improved to a wRC+ of 91 which is 24th. That improvement has come over the last 30 days because in that stretch they are ninth in team OPS at .789 with a wRC+ of 117. They are even second in home runs off lefties in that span with 15.

Michael A Taylor and Ryan Jeffers each have three of those 15 homers and over that span Jeffers leads the team with 1.438 OPS. Carlos Correa has also improved greatly against left-handers. So, do you take what has happened for the first few months of the year, or this recent success to mean more against Suarez today?

For me I’ll lean on the recent success and back the Twins, but it’s easier to do that when Sonny Gray is on the mound coming off a 10 strikeout performance. So let’s ride with Sonny and Minnesota. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change