Twins tiebreaker scenarios: Which teams does Minnesota hold the advantage over?

It might feel like the sky is falling for the Minnesota Twins, but the Doomsday clock hasn’t yet struck midnight.

We’re dangerously close to that happening, though.

Just 37 days ago the Twins were in control of not only a playoff spot but were on the cusp of potentially earning the best record in the American League. Things have gone so poorly since then that Minnesota is now on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture and missing the postseason.

The Twins have cratered so hard that the surging Detroit Tigers have pulled even with them in the AL Wild Card standings. Cleveland has clinched a playoff spot, the Royals are close to doing the same, and if things continue the way they’re going then Detroit will get the final spot.

For as bad as the AL Central has been over the last few years, and for all the fun that was made at the division’s expense, three teams have flipped the script and appear to be playoff-bound. The Twins didn’t get the memo and are playing to the low standards that everyone typically holds the Central.

Minnesota Twins tiebreaker scenarios for 2024 MLB Playoffs

Despite how hard the Twins have tumbled down the standings, they still hold an important advantage over every other team fighting for the final Wild Card spot. Unless Boston surges back over the last nine games, which is very possible considering they play the Twins this weekend, it’s looking like a four-team sprint to the finish line.

Here's how the tiebreaker scenarios work, with the Twins owning the edge over every remaining team other than the Red Sox.

Minnesota can lock up a final tiebreaker with just a single victory over Boston. Even though that would still mean the two teams could finish with the same record, the Twins would hold a tiebreaker by way of a better divisional record.

Of course, the Twins’ easiest path to a tiebreaker is to win two came and clinch the season series over Boston. The only way Minnesota loses that is by getting swept, but in that scenario they’d likely fall out of the playoff picture anyway and the tiebreaker would be essentially useless.

Subjectively the tiebreaker over the Tigers is massive as it could give the Twins an edge and stave off the surge. Objectively that’d be a bit of a bummer as nobody outside of Minnesota would likely be happy to see the Twins get in over a team as exciting and fun as the Tigers have been over the last month.

No matter how it happens, if the Twins clinch a playoff berth it would mean punching a ticket to Houston for the AL Wild Card. It’s a favorable matchup given how banged up and down trodden the Astros have been over the last month, but it’s a potential nightmare scenario as well.

For as much as the Twins could surprise and win a Wild Card series, they could be the reason Houston once again propels itself onto a World Series run.

Minnesota still controls its destiny, but the margin for error is razor thin. If the Twins go 9-0, they’ll clinch a playoff berth — and in that scenario it would be proven worth. They can also get some help from the Orioles beating the Tigers and the Rangers playing spoiler to their division rivals in Seattle.

It’s going to be a white knuckle ride to the finish line, and the Twins are very much still alive even if thigns feel as dire as they’ve ever been this season.

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