Making the case for trading or keeping Twins top trade chips
The Twins have options, but what are some pros and cons of flipping their top trade chips this winter?
It’s no secret that the Minnesota Twins have a big offseason ahead of them, and the margin for error is as slim as it’s been in a while.
That’ll happen when you snap a 19-year postseason losing streak and set an expectation among fans that competing for a World Series is in the plans for next season. Most fans are under than impression, but already the Twins have sunk back into their old ways and are trying to skirt paying the price of being a winning club.
Slashing the payroll was the first official move of the offseason, something that already has caused frustration throughout Twins Territory and is putting the front office in a tough position. It seems like trades are going to be the way the Twins add to the roster with some valuable trade chips being used as currency.
Flipping one of their top three trade chips isn’t a foregone conclusion, though, and there are pros and cons attached to each guy.
Pros and Cons of Twins trading a top trade chip this winter
Jorge Polanco, 2B
Why keep him: He's still a nice power hitting second basemen by MLB standards. When things are going well and Polanco can stay healthy he's an impact player at his position. His defense is still the best option the Twins — while healthy, which is a major sticking point.
Why trade him: His value is thanks to a relatively in a thin infield free agent market. The Twins are stacked with options at the keystone corner. Kyle Farmer, Eduoard Julien and Nick Gordon are all options for the Twins to replace Polanco, not to mention rookies like Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Yunior Severino.
Another potentially more important reason — especially given the payroll situation — is that the Twins would free up about $6 million in salary. Polanco seems to be the hottest trade piece heading into the winter, and I’d be a little surprsied to see him survive the winter considering the plethora of options the Twins have.
Approximate odds of being traded: 60%
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Max Kepler
Why keep him: Kepler is still a quality defensive outfielder that provides some versatility. He put up his best numbers in the last 5 years the second half of the 2023 season. The Twins still have major unanswered questions surrounding Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner going into 2024 with Kepler bringing a bit more of a known quantity. For the production he's delivering finding a similar type player may cost much more, either in money or the gamble of relying on a younger less experienced player.
Why trade him: His value is relatively high considering some of his struggles, but buyers are eyeing his second half success. The Twins may also be able to get an MLB-ready player in return which would be the whole reason a deal gets made.
The best value may be in the form of a bullpen arm or low end rotation guy. If the Twins have confidence in Wallner and company replacing Kepler’s production, the Twins could net about $6 million in salary which kills the bird of lowering the payroll with this stone. It might not be a quesiton of if the Twins trade Kepler rather when it’s best for a deal to happen. It's my belief the Twins will ride Kepler until at least mid-season and see where they're at the trade deadline.
Approximate odds of being traded: 40%
Christian Vazquez
Why keep him: Despite his struggles at the plate, Vazquez is still an elite defensive catcher and a high quality backup. He's a clubhouse leader beloved by his teammates, and formed a really nice platoon behind the plate with Ryan Jeffers this year. His trade value isn't exactly all that high as broken down on the Pond this week, but he has prime real estate in the catalog if teams are shopping the Twins roster.
Why trade him: If they can find a suitor getting about $9 million back in salary could go a long way in easing some payroll stress (noticing an annoying theme here?).
Jair Camargo emerged last year to dominate Triple-A, and is looking ready to work in tandem with Ryan Jeffers. Camargo would also be on a rookie contract and give Minnesota two young options behind the plate for the next handful of seasons.
The Twins overpaid Vazquez a bit at $10 million a year for three years (with two left to go) so getting someone to take on that contract may be a bit of a challenge. It would make sense to dump his salary, but I believe the Twins will be left holding the money bag for him. I see him back with Camargo acting as the injury depth receiver at St. Paul
Approximate odds of being traded: 30%
If the Twins can package any of these guys you may see all three wearing new uniforms in 2024. As of now Jorge Polanco is likely the first one to go, and it's shaping up to be an intriguing winter of trade drama as fans watch the front office work the hot stove.
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