5 non-tender players Twins should take a gamble on
A few intriguing names are available at potentially the right price for Minnesota this winter.
We've officially reached the MLB offseason, and the hot stove is starting to heat up.
The trade market is expected to get moving closer to the Winter Meetings next month, but there's already been movement in the free agent market as front offices around the league slowly start to work.
One of the first milestones was the non-tender deadline last Friday. Teams had until then to decide whether to hang onto players who were arbitration-eligible, and more than a few notable names hit the market as a result.
Minnesota ended up tendering seven players, with the future of Kyle Farmer still very much up-in-the-air. Decisions still need to be made in the form of what final salaries will look like for the seven players the Twins tendered, but players who were non-tendered elsewhere could become intriguing candidates for Minnesota to add this winter.
Mike Ford, 1B/DH
Ford feels like a classic Twins target, as he's an aging veteran slugger who just turned in an impressive bounce back season. Last year with the Seattle Mariners, Ford appeared in 83 games and finished the year with a 122 OPS+ while slashing .228/.323/.475 and mashing a career-high in home runs.
He's bounced around a bit in his career, but he's still only 31-years-old and fills a few different holes in the Twins lineup. Ford is a natural fit at DH, but has experience playing at first base -- something that could come in handy with questions about Alex Kirilloff's health.
The expectation seems to be that Kirilloff is on track to start the season healthy, but it's the same uncertain road the Twins were on last season with him. He'll definetly play in 2024, but just like last winter the team needs to figure out how to add depth at a thin position.
Donovan Solano ended up being a huge addition that filled the need, and Ford could keep that streak going.
Lou Trivino, RP
One thing the Twins needed last year but failed to properly address was bullpen help. Rather than be aggressive in adding help in free agency, Minnesota rolled with what it had and gambled on young pitchers in the farm system for help -- and it didn't exactly work.
There were bright spots, but for hte most part the Twins failure to add outside assistance ended up holding the unit back. That can change this winter, as Lou Trivino seems like a perfect buy-low candidate for the Twins to gamble on becoming a useful member of the bullpen.
Trivino is coming off Tommy John surgery, something that wiped out his entire 2023 season with the New York Yankees. He was on track to be pretty solid before suffering his injury, as Trivino posted a 1.66 ERA before being knocked out of action. He's not going to be the closer in Minnesota with Jhoan Duran occupying that spot for the forseeable future, but he's a high-leverage arm who can potentially replace someone like Jovani Moran and Jorge Lopez -- two guys who didn't pan out in similar positions.
Moran was non-tendered by the Twins before the deadline, but he's set to undergo Tommy John surgery and the team is hoping to bring him back as he rehabs. In the meantime, Trivino fills a need in the bullpen and could end up being the much-needed addition fans have been hoping the team would add for the last two seasons.
Daniel Vogelbach, 1B/DH
Unlike Mike Ford, things didn't go so well for Daniel Vogelbach last season. He wasn't a disaster, but he finished the year with his worst OPS+ since 2019 and only 13 home runs in 319 plate apperances. Vogelbach was still above league average, but he was hardly the slugger he had been at the start of the decade with the Pirates and Mets.
He didn't fit the Mets lineup with Pete Alonso manning first base, but that could be a blessing for the Twins who are looking for a few thigns that Vogelbach would provide. Much like Ford and other mid-tier veteran sluggers, Vogelbach could slot in as the Twins designated hitter, but also provides potential value as a platoon option at first base.
Even if Alex Kirilloff begins the season healthy, the Twins will need to find depth behind him. It's the same situation the team found themselves in last season, but the options were less ideal than they could be with Vogelbach. Luke Voit and Yuri Gurriel were the options Minnesota were faced with last offseason, and the front office decided to smartly pivot to Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo.
Vogelbach is far from a sure thing to bounce back, but if the Twins are going to take a swing at a low-risk gamble they can do a lot worse.
Brandon Woodruff, SP
This one is a little outside of the box, especially since it's an investment in 2025 rather than an immediate upgrade next season. Woodruff was on the Twins radar -- at least on the radar of Twins Twitter -- but he's expected to miss all of next season after undergoin surgery this offseason on his throwing shoulder.
It's undeniably risky, but also feels like a classic Twins move. There's a chance Woodruff never regains the type of prowess he had before the surgery, but there's also a chance he bounces back as a Cy Young candidate in 2025. Woodruff is an ace when he's on his game, and he would be an equal match with what the Twins are losing in Sonny Gray -- if not being a total upgrade.
That's what we're dealing with in Woodruff, which makes the risk seem worth it.
Minnesota doesn't have the best luck with those sorts of deals, though. There's too small of a sample size with Chris Paddack to determine if a similar plan worked with him, but the Twins weren't expected him to be an ace when he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Tyler Mahle is another guy who comes to mind when thinking of the gamble the Twins would take by signing Woodruff, as it would require a long-term deal but one that the team is already punting on a year of productivity with.
He was due to make $11 million and the Brewers decided to move on, which suggests the Twins might be able to get a potential ace to pair with Pablo Lopez on an incredible deal.
Dakota Hudson, SP
Woodruff is a high-upside gamble who could replace Sonny Gray if everything works out, but the Twins would be lucky to find that kind of a needle in the haystack of non-tender players.
A much more realistic outcome is with a guy like Dakota Hudson. He's a former first round pick for hte St. Louis Cardinals who failed to pan out as part of the future there. He posted a 4.64 ERA across 221 innings the past two seasons, which was inflated from an already shaky start to his career with the Cardinals.
Hudson projects to be a back-end of the rotation starter, which makes him a perfect player to take a gamble on. Minnesota doesn't need him to replace Gray, but he could end up replaceing the other veteran pitcher expecter to exit in free agency: Kenta Maeda.
We have a pretty good idea of what the front of the rotation will look like next season, with Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan being joined by 'Free Agent X' or someone the team trades Jorge Polanco and/or Max Kepler for (if not more). Guys like Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods Richardson are vying for that 4/5 spot in the rotation, and Hudson could give adequete competition for one of those two roles.
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