Mariners vs. Twins prediction and odds (Wednesday, July 26)

The Twins bullpen fell apart yesterday, but they can still be trusted as can their starting pitcher today, Joe Ryan.
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan (41)
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan (41) / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, the Seattle Mariners leaned on their star, Julio Rodriguez and beat the Minnesota Twins 9-7 behind his two home runs.

That evened the series and set up a rubber match this afternoon between the 51-50 Mariners and 54-49 Twins in Minnesota.

Today, the matchup on the mound will feature Bryce Miller and Joe Ryan. Miller, a rookie, is 6-3 with a 3.50 ERA in 13 starts while Ryan is 9-6 with a 3.88 ERA in 20 starts.

Let’s get right into the odds for this important AL matchup with the series on the line. 

Mariners vs. Twins odds, run line and total

Mariners vs. Twins prediction and pick

Yesterday, the Twins got a great start from Pablo Lopez who went seven innings and allowed just two runs on six hits.

He was excellent and gave them a chance to win the ballgame. Then, the Minnesota bullpen imploded and Seattle blew the game open.

Even after that disaster, the Minnesota bullpen is still top 10 in ERA this season, so there should be some level of trust there. In July, the Twins' pen is 20th with a 4.76 ERA, but before Tuesday, it had a 3.88 ERA.

I’m chalking it up to a blip on the radar, not a cause for serious concern. 

Who should be concerned is the Seattle lineup because it has to to face Joe Ryan today. The Mariners had their fun yesterday against the bullpen, but Ryan will be dominant.

He is in the 94th percentile for walk rate and 86th for strikeout rate. That combination gives him an expected ERA of 2.94 which is 93rd percentile of all pitchers.

He’s my favorite starter in the Minnesota rotation and that’s saying something with Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Bailey Ober all going every fifth day for the Twins. 

Bryce Miller has also been impressive for the Mariners in his limited work as a rookie. On top of Miller, the Mariners have the sixth best bullpen in terms of ERA at 3.72 for the season.

I love the under in this one after 16 runs were scored yesterday. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change