Predicting an ideal Minnesota Twins lineup vs. right-handed pitchers in 2023

Texas Rangers v Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers v Minnesota Twins / Brace Hemmelgarn/GettyImages
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For what feels like the first time in a long time, the Minnesota Twins have some serious roster depth. With a deeper-than-usual talent pool to pull from, Rocco Baldelli should have plenty of space to get creative with his lineups and get strategic with how he approaches each pitching matchup.

That's not exclusive to just strategizing a starting pitching matchup, as the flexibility Rocco has with who he puts in the starting lineup deepens the bench and potential pinch hitting situations once a team starts dipping into its bullpen.

All of this is on paper, which means little until we actually see it in action. But it's been a while since the Twins have had this sort of lineup flexibility and it''s going to be interesting to see how the team uses it to get back to that 90-win threshold and to the top of the AL Central.

More importantly, and perhaps most critically, how will the team sort out its lineup to best prepare for a potential postseason run in October? There are two sides to every lineup, though, so let's start by diving into what an ideal potential lineup for the Twins against right-handed pitching might look like.

Projected Minnesota Twins lineup vs. right-handed pitchers in 2023

Here's a completely knee-jerk look at what the Twins batting order could be against right-handed pitching this season:

Batting Order

Player

Position

1

Jorge Polanco

2B

2

Carlos Correa

SS

3

Byron Buxton

CF

4

Jose Miranda

3B

5

Alex Kiriloff

1B

6

Nick Gordon

DH

7

Max Kepler

RF

8

Christian Vazquez

C

9

Joey Gallo

LF

Potential Pinch Hitters: Donovan Solano, Ryan Jeffers, Michael A. Taylor, Kyle Farmer

It's hard to argue against the top of the Twins order being as deadly as it's ever been. Polanco is a consistent hitter who is going to put balls in play to lead things off, followed by two of the best hitters in the league to bat him in if he gets on base.

Buxton, specifically, has been one of the best Twins hitters since 2020 and clobbers right-handed pitching, posting a 140 wRC+, which means he's been 40 percent better than the league average. Correa has a 124 wRC against righties, while Polanco has batted in roughly 20 more runs above average.

(Order) Batter

wRC (vs. RHP)

wRC+ (vs. RHP)

wRAA (vs. RHP)

(1) Jorge Polanco

121

127

20.1

(2) Carlos Correa

145

124

26.3

(3) Byron Buxton

89

140

24.4

All of that is to say the odds are pretty high that at least one of the first three batters an opposing right-handed pitcher faces will reach base.

Things get a little murkier after that, with the loss of Luis Arraez being notable. He was far and away the Twins best hitter against righties over the last three years, with a .323 batting average and a higher wRAA than Carlos Correa. Filling that void won't be easy, but Nick Gordon being able to step into the DH role could help offset it when combined with Jose Miranda and Alex Kiriloff hitting in the middle of the order.

Any of those three guys could be rotated into the clean-up spot, but all three getting regular time in the lineup should help give a better indication of their impact versus their scattered advanced stats from the last three seasons.

Still, the Opening Day look is less than pretty:

(Order) Batter

wRC (vs. RHP)

wRC+ (vs. RHP)

wRAA (vs. RHP)

(4) Jose Miranda

42

110

2.8

(5) Alex Kirilloff

29

89

-4.3

(6) Nick Gordon

67

113

6.1

The bottom of the order isn't much better, but there are some bright spots with Max Kepler and Joey Gallo, in terms of what their advanced stats tell us. Kepler is due for a breakout season with the shift ban -- at least that's what the Twins are banking on. He was alright against righties considering he's been offensively slumping since 2019 but the fear is that we've seen the best version of him already and it leaves a lot to be desired.

Ditto with Gallo, who looks decent in terms of advanced runs created metrics, but he's a miserable .195 against right-handed pitching since 2020. Both of those guys would make their way into a lineup for what they offer defensively rather than anything they'd offer on offense.

(Order) Batter

wRC (vs. RHP)

wRC+ (vs. RHP)

wRAA (vs. RHP)

(7) Max Kepler

110

112

10.9

(8) Christian Vazquez

93

95

-0.5

(9) Joey Gallo

116

111

11.5

It's worth mentioning that Joey Gallo batted leadoff in the Twins first game of Spring Training but it's not something to read too deeply into. As Rocco works through his different lineups down in Fort Myers, he'll likely head into Opening Day with something close to all of this.

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