Pirates vs. Twins prediction and odds for Sunday, Aug. 20 (Back Twins' bats vs Bido)

The Twins are looking for a series win in the rubber match at home as they protect a five-game lead in the AL Central.
Minnesota Twins pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60)
Minnesota Twins pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) / Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, Andrew McCutchen drove in five runs in the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-4 win over the Minnesota Twins that evened the series.

Now, the Twins are 64-60 entering the rubber match with a five game lead in the AL Central. The NL Central Pirates are fourth at 55-68. 

For the series finale the Pirates will go with an opener, Ryan Borucki before Osvaldo Bido and the Twins will hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel. Bido is 2-3 with a 5.05 ERA and Keuchel is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA in two starts. 

The Twins are slight favorites in the rubber match even with Keuchel making just his third start since getting picked up off the scrap heap. 

Pirates vs. Twins odds, run line and total

Pirates vs. Twins prediction and pick

Dallas Keuchel was never too great at missing bats, even in his heyday, but now it’s even worse. Keuchel has pitched 6.2 innings this year and has yet to record a strikeout. The ball is just constantly in play against him which makes it very hard to record outs, even if the defense behind him is solid. 

Luckily for Keuchel, the Pirates are 28th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since July 1 and recently sent right-handed bat, Jared Triolo back to Triple-A in favor of lefty Ji-Hwan Bae.

Ke’Bryan Hayes hits lefties well and he and McCutchen have been hot for the Bucs, but that still hasn’t given them a ton of success against lefties. 

The Twins however, hit righties like Bido very well, with the fourth best OPS against righties in the MLB. Yesterday, righty Mitch Keller dominated them with 12 strikeouts across six innings of two-run ball, but Keller is fifth in baseball in total strikeouts.

The Twins hitters lead the league in strikeouts this season, so that was a great matchup for Keller. Bido on the other hand doesn’t miss many bats. 

Bido has 37 strikeouts in 41.0 innings pitched and has a 19th percentile whiff rate. He won’t slice through the Minnesota lineup like Keller did and while it’s hard to trust Keuchel, I think the Twins will have a big day at the plate and get out of this series with a big win. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change