MLB Draft: Grading every Twins first round pick since 2010

If there’s one identifiable feature about the Minnesota Twins, it’s how the small ball club is always setting up moves for the future. Fans across Twins Territory have heard all their lives about what the future holds, but rarely have we seen it arrive.

There have been successes over the years, notably the talent developed in the late-90s that turned into a perennial division-winning playoff team in the 2000s. As the Twins have demonstrated over the last decade, though, it’s hard to replicate that sort of success.

This year the Twins once again owned a top draft choice thanks to the new MLB Draft Lottery literally bouncing in their favor. They landed one of the best players in the draft class, Walker Jenkins, who was talked about as a potential No. 1 overall pick at numerous points in the pre-draft process.

All of this got us thinking about other first round picks the Twins have made over the years, and whether or not they’ve panned out the way everyone was hoping they would at the time.

MLB Draft: Grading every Twins first round pick since 2010

2010 MLB Draft

We're far enough away from some of the early-2010s picks to have a pretty good idea of how well they've aged. The Alex Wimmers isn't the worst pick of the last decade by any stretch, but that still doesn't mean it's a good one.

His career with the Twins and in baseball was rather short, as Wimmers bounced around Minnesota's farm system until making his debut in 2016. Injuries are really what derailed his career, as Wimmers underwent Tommy John surgery back in 2012 and needed another elbow surgery a year later. The Twins eventually released him in 2017, after which he spent a stint in Miami before dropping out of the majors.

2011 MLB Draft

While the 2011 MLB Draft was absolutely stacked with talent, which should make this pick infuriating. However, Minnesota didn't go on the clock until No. 30 overall, and all of the future Hall of Fame talent that made this class so iconic was long off the board.

If we're going to nitpick, though, the Twins did miss on a better prospect at the same position. Trevor Story was selected by Colorado fifteen picks after Minnesota ran their card up to the podium. Given how the next few years panned out in terms of Twins potentially finding a shortstop of the future, things turned out alright.

2012 MLB Draft

Good lord, what a draft class. This might go down as the best Twins class of the decade, not only because of who they drafted but who they ended up with out of the draft as a whole.

Buxton is a superstar, full stop. He's one of the most exciting players in baseball and when he's healthy one of the very best. Almost as soon as he was drafted he became the next capital-G Guy for the Twins and it's safe to say that while the road hasn't been totally smooth he's delivered as far as being a key piece of the team's core.

Jose Berrios was drafted to be the guy that Joe Ryan turned out to be, and he was one of the best pitchers the Twins had over the last decade. While he didn't turn into the true ace the Twins needed and was traded to the Blue Jays back in 2021. However, rather than being a bust, he gave Minnesota. few great seasons before being flipped for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson.

Of course, a headline from this draft class is the fact that the Twins now have the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks in its lineup. Carlos Correa was selected by Houston ahead of Buxton, and a decade later they became teammates in Minnesota.

For what it's worth, Joey Gallo was a supplemental first round choice by the Texas Rangers this year, which means the Twins have three first rounders from this draft class on their current roster.

2013 MLB Draft

Minnesota has had a rought time navigating the top of the MLB Draft over the last decade, something the Kohl Stewart pick higlighted. He was a decent pick at the time, and came during a period where the Twins desperately needed to replenish their pitching stock.

It's hard to say this was a missed pick since this year's class wasn't nearly as strong as some of the previous ones. There's a case to be made that Tim Anderson would have been a better selection but the team had jus taken a young shortstop a few years before.

Aside from Austin Meadows, there wasn't any one standout star from this draft, but the Twins might have been able to use one of the guys who aged into being decent mid-tier veterans. Clint Fraizer, Hunter Renfroe, and J.P. Crawford all could have made sense in hindsight.

The real swing-and-miss is the team that historically likes to collect outfielders like rare coins passing on a guy named Aaron Judge who went No. 32 overall.

2014 MLB Draft

Hindsight always colors how we look back on these draft classes, no matter how well a player originally selected has played. Nick Gordon has been a perfectly solid utility player for the Twins who has been plugged and played all over the place during his time with the team.

If we could rewind the clocks, this pick might have gone a little differently. Eight picks after Gordon was selected, the Padres took Trea Turner — a fellow shortstop prospect who ended up being a World Series winning All-Star. Aaron Nola was also selected after Gordon, going two picks later to the Philadelphia Phillies.

That all might come across as unfair to Gordon, who deserves to get his flowers for what he’s done with the Twins. He hasn’t collected the accolades that Turner and Nola have, but he’s been a classic Twins fit who harkened back to the days of the 2000s piranhas.

2015 MLB Draft

The Twins managed a stretch of drafts in the mid-to-late 2010s that has proven to be extremely fruitful. Between 2014 and 2018 the Twins drafted four players who have all been called up and made contributions as recently as this season — Tyler Jay is the lone standout.

Jay was a hot prospect coming out of Illinois in 2015 and seemed to fit a need the Twins had for future pitching. He showed some early promise in the minors but cratered pretty quickly and was out of the organization by 2019.

What makes this one sting is the fact that the Twins could have gone five-for-five with impact players they drafted. Both Andrew Benintendi and Ian Happ were picked after Jay and both would have fit the bill as guys who you could see making every day contributions like the other guys drafted in this stretch.

The biggest miss was passing on a guy who ended up going at No. 24 overall. The Twins wanted a pitcher and took Jay, but passed on Walker Buehler.

Buehler is positioned to be the Dodgers ace of the future, taking the torch from Clayton Kershaw. Meanwhile, the Twins traded Jay to Cincinnati for cash considerations four years after drafting him.

2016 MLB Draft

It’s undeniable that Tyler Jay was a bad miss by the Twins front office, but they rebounded and redeemed themselves the next season. Alex Kirilloff was a top high school prospect who the Twins drafted as an outfielder but developed in their farm system into a guy who is expected to be the first baseman of the future.

Kirilloff made his debut less than five years later, getting called up during the playoffs in 2020 and has been making his bones with the Twins ever since. Injuries have stunted his growth in the majors, but he’s a key piece of the Twins core moving forward assuming he can continue building on the promise he’s shown.

2017 MLB Draft

Here we come to the second of three absolute monster picks the Twins made and turned into top prospects in the entire league. Getting the No. 1 pick isn’t something that has happened often for Minnesota, and this marked the first time since 2001 that the team had secured to the top pick.

That year the Twins drafted Joe Mauer, and guys like Dansby Swanson, Gerit Cole, and Bryce Harper had gone No. 1 in recent years. So it’s safe to say the expections for what the Twins would do were high, and they absolutely delivered with Royce Lewis.

His journey has been a tough one, with two ACL injuries stunting his ascension, but once he re-introduced himself this season he reminded everyone why there was so much hype around him. Lewis is hands down a centerpiece of the Twins future, and is on his way to filling the massive shows Mauer left for him as the last No. 1 pick Minnesota made.

2018 MLB Draft

Minnesota closed out a stellar run of drafting impact players by nabbing Trevor Larnach in the later stages of the first round back in 2018. His rise has been rather quick, partly because he was coming out of college when the Twins drafted him, but he started making contributions to the Twins lineup less than four years after being picked.

He’s shown flashes of being an important impact player that fits a classic Twins mold. Last season he slashed .231/.306/.406 and made the Opening Day roster this season. He’s been up and down due to injuries, but it’s clear the Twins nailed a late first-round pick in finding Larnach at No. 20 overall.

2019 MLB Draft

The jury is very much still out on Keoni Cavaco, who hasn’t been given as much development time thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. He barely made a dent in Rookie-level ball in 2019, hitting a miserable .172 and then lost his entire 2020 season when the league cancelled all minor league games due to the pandemic.

Cavaco is trending in the right direction, hitting .233 and .231 respectively over the last two seasons, but he’s not lighting the farm system on fire. He doesn’t rank among the Top 30 prospects but he’s only 21-years old and has time left to develop. He has a tendency to chase pitches and posted an absolutely brutal 138-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Low-A last year, so there’s plenty of room for improvement.

2020 MLB Draft

Everything about 2020 feels like it’s a wash. While the COVID-19 pandemic wiped away a seasons-worth of development for guys like Keoni Cavaco, it also forced teams to essentially draft blind that year.

Aaron Sobato was a borderline college superstar at North Carolina, but the Twins weren’t able to do their normal amount of due diligence on him thanks to pandemic restrictions. For whatever reason, Sobato has taken some steps back in his development since being drafted.

He hit just 32 percent of the time versus low-minors pitching, which is not what you’re looking for. There’s a slip side to that coin where he adds power to the Twins lineup, something he showed by hitting 22 home runs in 2022 but there always seems to be a yo-yo effect with his skills.

While he showed potential as a power hitter, Sobato also hit a meager .209 with 291 strikeouts in 210 games.