Ranking Minnesota Twins position groups heading into 2023 based on projected WAR
It's easier to start at the top and work our way back to the weakest group since it's sort of obvious what two position groups lead the way for Minnesota, although the top spot is a bit surprising. Also keep in mind that these projections are based on complete position groups, not just the 26-man roster, so there are some players contributing to projected wins who won't be on the Opening Day roster.
1. Starting Pitching - Projected WAR: 11.4
Top Players: Joe Ryan (2.3 WAR), Pablo Lopez (2.2 WAR), Tyler Mahler (2.1 WAR)
One of the most frustrating position groups for the Twins last season could end up being the team's best and most exciting in 2023. Who to blame for the issues depends on who you talk to, as the stats suggest Minnesota's starters were sub-par, but ask fans why that was and the finger gets pointed at Rocco Baldelli and his managerial decisions.
That's all in the past, though, and the upside for the starting rotation this year is rather exciting.
Minnesota projected starting rotation combines for 10.3 WAR, which is enticing and says a lot about the potential of the unit. Kenta Maeda's 1.4 WAR feels a bit conservative, albeit fairly, as he's expected to return to his 2020 Cy Young form this season -- or something closer to that than what he was before needing Tommy John surgery last year.
Both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan will lead the rotation beyond just this season, but it could be Sonny Gray who has the best bounce-back season of the entire crew. He wasn't too pleased about his innings usage last season, and if Rocco loosens his grip a bit on pulling starters so early, leaving Gray to go deeper into his starts could put him in a position to get the most out of his 2.1 WAR.
2. Shortstop - Projected WAR: 5.8
Top Player: Carlos Correa (5.0 WAR)
Shortstop is both the best non-pitching group but also the most volatile. Carlos Correa accounts for almost all of the WAR in the position group, with Royce Lewis and Kyle Farmer making up 0.5 WAR between them.
As we saw last year, if Correa gets hurt the Twins are in big trouble. His surgically reconstructed leg wasn't as much of an issue as it was made out to be in free agency, but Correa missing anytime will be problematic, especially considering Lewis is the second-best player at the position and is already starting the season on the 60-day IL.
Kyle Farmer can help step in and play some shortstop, as he’ll play that Nick Punto-style utility role in the infield this season, but the gamble with Correa is the team will only be a good as he allows them to be — something directly reflected in his projected WAR.
3. Centerfield - Projected WAR: 4.8
Top Player: Byron Buxton (3.4 WAR)
Minnesota's two best players are Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, and it's not particularly close. So it comes as no surprise that centerfield is this critical to the team's success or that Buxton largely accounts for why it ranks so high.
Like Correa, Buxton makes up almost all of the projected WAR in center. However, unlike Correa there's some serious support behind Buxton that could help offset any time he neds up missing this year.
Trading for Michael A. Taylor did a few things for the Twins, not the least of which was add his 1.1 WAR to the outfield platoon. Taylor is one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball, and paired with Buxton creates an insane duo that could end up being one of the best in the league in the field.
In fact, it's hard to find a better duo than Buxton-Taylor elsewhere on the Twins depth chart.
4. Second Base - Projected WAR: 3.8
Best Player: Jorge Polanco (3.2 WAR)
Jorge Polanco leads the charge at second, accounting for the majority of projected WAR in the position group. Don't read too much into that, though, as the addition of Donovan Solano is a sneaky good signing by the Twins that will pay off more than his 0.3 WAR implies.
One area where Solano will add immense value is against left-handed pitching. As good as Polanco is everywhere else, he's pretty rough against lefties which is going to be where Solano steps in. Doing so will allow Polanco to get some days off he otherwise might not have, and gives the Twins more options for strategizing against lefties and keeping guys like Polano on the bench to factor in as a pinch hitter once opponents start dipping into their bullpens.
That's not reflected in his indiviual WAR, but it's something resting inside the numbers that boosts Solano's value to the position group.
5. Third Base - Projected WAR: 3.7
Best Player: Jose Miranda (2.7 WAR)
How much of a step forward will Jose Miranda take this year?
That's one of the biggest questions Twins fans have entering the season, as Miranda seems to have everything needed to be a key piece of the core for years to come. One potential cause for concern is how the team’s new everyday third baseman played the position the least last season. Miranda played 42 fewer games at third than he did at first (27 at third base, 69 at first base), which hopefully seems like a bigger deal than it actually is.
Adjacent to the question of how much further he can step into his potential is how healthy he will be when the season starts. He accounts for almost all of the positional WAR at third, but right now he's dealing with a shoulder situation that has prevented him from throwing.
Brooks Lee could sneak in and have an impact at third, but that’s asking a lot of a rookie who has mostly played at shortstop. Assuming he comes back from injury alright, Royce Lewis could slot in at third as well, with Carlos Correa having shown a willingness to play the position when the New York Mets were trying to sign him in December (his buddy Francisco Lindor has shortstop locked down).
6. Catcher - Projected WAR: 3.6
Best Player: Christian Vazquez (2.1 WAR)
One of the sleeper position groups for the Twins is behind the plate at catcher. Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vazquez offer the slimmest margin between WAR in any of the Twins position groups outside of pitching, which seems to reflect how much of a one-two punch they'll be.
Buxton-Taylor still make up the best positional duo on the roster, but there's a case to be made for Jeffers-Vazquez to be close behind.
Of two, Vazquez offers the most value with 2.1 WAR, but he's able to hit lefties almost as good as Jeffers which means being able to put them both in the lineup against them with one behind the plate and the other as DH.
7. Right Field - Projected WAR: 2.9
Best Player: Max Kepler (2.4 WAR)
We're starting to get to the bottom of the barrel, and it make sense pretty quickly as to why. Max Kepler's offense has left a lot to be desired since he showed so much promise in 2019, but there's hope that the shift ban fixes that. He slashed .227/.318/.348 last season, which he’s going to need to vastly improve upon if he wants to make a case for the Twins to keep him beyond this year.
Of course, teams are already finding loopholes in the new rule which could be trouble for Kepler.
Defensively he's great, and part of the reason why he's been playable despite his offensive struggles. The downside is that there’s not a ton of depth behind him if he needs to be taken out of the lineup. Joey Gallo can play right field but he’ll be manning the other corner of the outfield when Kepler is in the lineup and might not always be available when Kepler needs time off. Gallo has more depth behind him, though, which could create a duo of Kepler and Gallo in right field this season.
It’s a weak position, for sure but there could be some workarounds if needed.
8. Bullpen - Projected WAR: 2.8
Best Players: Jhoan Duran (1.4 WAR), Caleb Thielbar (0.5 WAR)
This is a little unfair, as WAR is a tough stat to base a bullpen’s success on. But ranking the unit low is cathartic in that Twins fans found themselves more often than not cursing the relievers who came into late inning situations last season.
Actually, it’s a bit inaccurate to call when relievers were being called upon “late-innings”. Rocco Baldelli routinely refused to let starters go deep into their starts, which put an unnecessary strain on the bullpen and set the unit up for failure.
Despite this, Jhoan Duran was an absolute stud and his 1.4 WAR is proof of how critical he is to the bullpen’s success. He’s a superstar in the making, there’s no other way to put it and that’s absolutely fantastic against the backdrop of all the uncertainty.
Jorge Lopez needs to have a bounce back year after struggling late in the year, and prayer candles need to be lit for Emilio Pagan given how he’s been performing in Spring Training and might not even make the roster. Caleb Thielbar is another bright spot to distract ourselves with in the bullpen and if Jorge Alcalá can tap into the potential he showed in his few apperances the Twins bullpen could completely turn things around this year.
9. Left Field - Projected WAR: 2.2
Best Player: Joey Gallo (1.5 WAR)
There’re more depth in left field for the Twins but somehow things are worse there than over in right field. Joey Gallo was signed in the winter to take over right field and there’s incredible upside to the gamble Minnesota is taking on him.
Sure, he flamed out hard with the Yankees but who loves former Yankees with potential upside more than the Twins? Gallo is a classic case of this, and while his WAR doesn’t suggest he alone will help win games there’s hope that he can return to the slugger he was back in this Texas days.
Nick Gordon will be able to add some depth in right, and Trevor Larnach is someone who can fill in as well but he’s unlikely to make the Opening Day roster as it stands now.
10. Designated Hitter - Projected WAR: 2.0
Best Players: Byron Buxton (1.1 WAR), Royce Lewis (0.4 WAR)
Losing Luis Arráez certainly hurt the Twins designated hitter pool, but power hitting has always been scarce in years past. Minnesota has never had a robust rotation of sluggers but there’s still a few options to like heading into the season.
Buxton could DH more thanks to having Michael A. Taylor able to hold the fort in centerfield. Things get a little dicier with Carlos Correa, who doesn’t have the same kind of depth behind him at short. His best support is Royce Lewis, who is also the second-best DH option in projected WAR but is also starting the season on the 60-day IL which is problematic in more than one way.
Nick Gordon has rotated in at DH over the last few seasons, and there’s also Ryan Jeffers to consider against left-handed pitching with Christian Vazquez able to hold things down as the starting catcher in that lineup.
11. First Base - Projected WAR: 1.9
Best Player: Alex Kirilloff (0.9 WAR)
Oh boy.
What the Twins get out of a returning Alex Kirilloff dictates a lot of how things will go at first base, but there's not a ton of wiggle room in terms of room for error.
A major source of anxiety fans feel about Kirilloff's health is that there isn't depth behind him. Minnesota traded away Luis Arraez this winter, which helped the pitching staff but created a void left side of whoever that ends up being on the mound.
Adding Donovan Solano helps a bit and there's also Joey Gallo who can play first as well. But Solano might spend more of his time at second relieving Jorge Polanco from facing left-handed pitching, and Gallo hasn't played there since 2019.
Let’s not be overtly negative, though, as there’s a universe where things actually take a step forward at first. In a perfect world, the Twins are able to use Kirilloff, Miranda, and Solano at first base which could become a strong platoon. Kirilloff and Miranda have slugger potential, and Solano is a reliable veteran bat with all three being solid defensively.
There's a reason FanGraphs named this as the Twins weakest position group, though, and any anxiety being felt is extremely just.
Next. 3 Twins who won't make Opening Day roster . dark