The Minnesota Twins are finally starting to separate from the rest of the AL Central with a 2.5 game lead over second place. However, at 56-54 they aren’t secure in their postseason spot and it could slip away with three games against the 57-53 Arizona Diamondbacks this weekend.
Minnesota will send Bailey Ober to the mound at home after a rough start last time. Ober is 6-5 with a 3.19 ERA in 17 starts this season and Arizona will counter with Merrill Kelly. Kelly has similar numbers in his 18 starts with a 9-5 record and 3.23 ERA.
Both pitchers have low ERA’s this year, but this game could turn high scoring and has a total of 8.5. Let’s take a look at the odds for Game 1 of this weekend set.
Diamondbacks vs. Twins odds, run line and total
Diamondbacks vs. Twins prediction and pick
I’ve been calling Bailey Ober’s season fraudulent pretty much all year. He’s consistently had a FIP well above his ERA as well as an expected ERA that currently sits at 3.69 which is still higher than his ERA that’s on the rise. Ober gave up six runs on 11 hits to the Royals last trip to the mound and that outing lasted just four innings. He hasn’t gone deep into starts all year which is a big reason that he’s had an ERA under three for most of the year and his team barely has a winning record in his starts, 10-7.
The same goes for Merrill Kelly who has a FIP of 3.81 and has had an ERA that hovered around three for most of the season. He’s going to face some regression too and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a tough outing in this one. Minnesota has the advantage if neither starter lasts deep into this game because their bullpen is 12th in ERA and Arizona’s is 23rd.
The Diamondbacks need something to jump-start their offense facing Bailey Ober should do that. In the past 15 days Arizona is 27th in team OPS and they lost three of four to the Giants this week in four very low-scoring games. The numbers say to fade Ober and Kelly in this one, so despite a struggling offense I’ll take the over. If Kelly has a good start, the Arizona bullpen could always still blow up and cash this bet for us.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change