Astros vs. Twins prediction and odds for ALDS Game 3 (Trust Sonny Gray)

Can Sonny Gray turn in another strong playoff outing?
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) delivers.
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) delivers. / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins picked up a massive Game 2 win – on the road nonetheless – against the Houston Astros to even their ALDS series at one game apiece. 

Now, the Twins have Sonny Gray on the mound for Game 3 in Minnesota against Houston’s Cristian Javier. 

Gray threw five scoreless innings against the Toronto Blue Jays in the wild card round, leading the Twins to a win. Can he back that performance up on Tuesday night? 

He’s going to need to take down an experienced Houston team that is really looking to defend its World Series title from last season.  

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Astros vs. Twins probable pitchers for ALDS Game 3

  • Houston: Cristian Javier (righty) – 105, 4.56 ERA
  • Minnesota: Sonny Gray (righty) – 8-8, 2.79 ERA

Astros vs. Twins odds, run line and total

Astros vs. Twins prediction and pick

Houston’s bats cooled off in Game 2 after scoring six runs in Game 1 of this series, and I think the key to handicapping this matchup is to look at the pitching. 

Gray – despite an 8-8 record – was extremely effective this season with a 2.79 ERA and 2.83 FIP. He allowed more than three earned runs in just one start over the last two months of the season. 

Meanwhile, Javier saw his strikeout numbers decline this season, and he allowed at least three runs in eight of his final 11 starts of the season, good for a 5.00 ERA in that stretch. 

Houston still went 21-10 in his starts, but the team will need to give him run support in this matchup to win. 

I’m not sold on that happening against Gray, who allowed just four runs in 13.0 innings of work against the Astros this season. 

I’ll trust the better pitcher at home in this matchup. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.