5 potential breakout candidates for Twins in 2024

Opening Day is right aroud the corner, and the Minnesota Twins are hoping it's the start of a journey that carries them even further than last year.

For the first time in two decades the Twins won a playoff series and in the process ended the most miserable losing streak in sports. Part of the reason the team got there was thanks to a handful of guys stepping up and delivering huge seasons against steep odds.

Pablo Lopez broke out as the team's top starter and future ace, holding up his end of the big trade Minnesota made before the season. Carlos Correa reminded everyone in the ALDS why the Twins paid him $200 million, and guys like Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor filled in for the team in ways it couldn't have imagined before the year.

That's a trend that needs to continue this season, with new players stepping into the role of guys who broke out in big ways to help the Twins.

5 potential breakout candidates for Twins in 2024

Bailey Ober, SP

If there's one guy to buy a ton of stock in before Opening Day, it's Bailey Ober.

Last year he emerged as a potential sleeper to keep an eye on, and eventually developed into a pitcher who the Twins started in a playoff series. That was more out of necessity, but by the time the ALDS rolled around Ober had started to earn his stripes in a big way as a meaningful part of the rotation.

That's something he can build on in 2024, and the early signs seem to indicate that he's going to do exactly that.

He's only pitched just 4.1 innings so far this spring, but has struck out 10 batters and boasts an impressive 1.150 WHIP alongside. Batters are hitting just .176 against him, and the guys he's faced aren't a bunch of non-roster invites that he's using as cannon fodder. Ober went three innings against the Philadelphia Phillies at the beginning of March, striking out Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Darick Hall, Rodolfo Castro, and Cal Stevenson, while striking out Kyle Schwarber twice.

That means a bulk of his ten strikeouts came against some of the best hitters in the National League and he caught them all swinging.

Bryce Harper went so far as to shout Ober out after facing him, noting that his stuff is already this nasty and he's only just started shaking off the winter rust. The sky is the limit for Ober and he's looking like a potential playoff-caliber starter and it's only Spring Training.

Matt Wallner, LF

Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis got most of the credit for being the faces of the Twins youth movement last year, but Matt Wallner played just as important a role.

It's hard to overstate just how unexpectedly great Wallner was, as he came up with hardly the amount of fan fare that Julien and Lewis did but pretty much matched them in offensive impact. Last year Wallner slashed .249/.370/.507 as a rookie, which was better than almost half the league average. Wallner also mashed 14 home runs, which was tied for seventh on the team and just one shy of what Lewis ended up with.

All of that was a display of his ability as a power hitter, which is something that is surely going to continue developing this season.

Wallner is projected for .234/.336/.427 slash this year according to ZiPS, and his WAR is around 1.5; neither of those stats are taking the team over the top but it seems to be more of a floor than what he's likely to top out at. Baseball Reference has him projected for a .817 OPS which goes a long way in replacing power at the plate lost in trading away Jorge Polanco, and Wallner getting stretching his 2023 production across even more plate appearances then Twins will have one of the top left fielders in the league.

That seems to be the expectation, as MLB.com listed him as a Top 10 player at his position in its early rankings and it's worth keeping a close eye on if he can live up to it this season.

Jorge Alcala, RP

Last year was another in a string of disappointments for Jorge Alcalá, who just a few years ago looked like the next big thing to land in Minnesota's bullpen.

Between 2019 and 2021, Alcalá posted a 3.42 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP across 85 innings pitched. He also struck out 89 batters and walked just 22 as well as a 124 ERA+, all of which suggested he was trending hard in the right direction as a reliable late innings pitcher.

All of that came crashing down thanks to injuries, and he's just now working his way back. The fact that Alcalá, after two bad years, seems is on his way back is positive enough but the finer details of his comeback suggest that he might be able to fully tap back into what made him special at the start of the decade.

His fastball has been consistently clocking around 96 to 97 mph this spring, topping out at 98 mph. Alcalá also has a slider in the low-90s that looks like it could get nastier the more he develops it. While he's only seen four innings of work he hasn't allowed a single run on three hits, which is an encouraging sign considering how he was lit up for a 6.23 ERA in just over 17 innings.

There's still work that needs to be done, but Alcalá is showing the type of stuff that will help him emerge from the shadows he's fallen behind in the bullpen over the last few years. If he can tap back into that potential, he's primed to breakout in ways we've been waiting years to see.

Royce Lewis, 3B

It's hard to believe, after all that Royce Lewis has been through, that last year was his rookie season in the majors. It feels like he's been around forever -- which he sort of has. He was drafted back in 2017 but has spent the last few seasons battling injuries that seemed like they might derail his ascension.

Lewis has torn his ACL twice, but he made a triumphant return last May and never looked back. He made an impact right out the gate, single-handily helping the Twins win a game in Houston that they otherwise should have lost. That was the start of Lewis jump starting Minnesota's offense, something that eventually led to him hitting four grand slams in the span of 18 games in late August.

He still battled injuries last season but nothing as serious as what he dealt with before. It also didn't stop him from finishing the season slashing .309/.372/.548 in 58 games while posting a .921 OPS and driving in 52 runs. Lewis was exactly what the Twins needed last year and the lineup was noticeably better with him in it.

That would suggest he broke out last year, which he did in terms of busting onto the scene but it simply set the stage for him to truly deliver on seven years of promise. Lewis is being pegged as a dark horse MVP candidate and he's been firmly established as a face of the franchise moving forward. If he hits his 80th percentile projections, according to ZiPS, Lewis will have a 4.1 WAR which is second to Carlos Correa. That's the company he's in and this is just the second year of his career and the first one where he's going to start the season on the MLB roster.

The idea that he's only scratching the surface and we've yet to see him fully breakout is exciting for Twins fans and terrifying for the rest of the league

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