3 Twins who deserve the most blame for letting the team down

These Twins need to step up down the stretch of the season.

Aug 13, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins designated hitter Royce Lewis (23) runs to third against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
Aug 13, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins designated hitter Royce Lewis (23) runs to third against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
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The Minnesota Twins are firmly in the playoff race, but holding on to the final wild card spot, trying to hold off teams like the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners in the last few weeks of the regular season. Despite being in a decent place to secure a playoff spot, it has been disappointing to see the Twins not challenge for the American League Central crown.

Barring a complete collapse, the Twins will play October baseball once again this year, but there have been some disappointing performances that have them closer to the playoff bubble

When looking at how the Twins have gotten to this point, they have not had any disastrous months of play this season, but they have not lit the world on fire in any month, either. Their best months were in May and June when they posted 16-12 and 15-2 records respectively, per Statmuse. For the most part, they have gone slightly above .500 each month, and that is a recipe for being in the conversation at the end of the year.

September is much of the same to this point for Minnesota, as it holds a 5-6 record this month ahead of a three-game series at home against the Cincinnati Reds.

However, there was a point a few weeks ago in which the Twins were in striking distance for the division title. The Cleveland Guardians had been chased down by the Kansas City Royals, and the Twins were not far behind. It looked like a three-way battle, but Minnesota has fallen back a bit, and now the priority becomes just securing a wild card spot.

There are a few Twins players who come to mind when examining why the team has fallen out of the division race as of late, and let's get to them. For clarity's sake, players who have missed time, like Carlos Correa and Max Kepler, have been kept off of this list, even though their absences have impacted the team's performance.

3 Twins who deserve the most blame for letting the team down

Royce Lewis, OF

There were big expectations coming into the 2024 season for Royce Lewis, and rightfully so. He played at an incredible level in just 58 games in 2023. He hasn't necessarily had a bad year on the whole, but he has certainly tailed off as the season has gone along.

When looking at wRC+, an all-encompassing offensive stat, Lewis has a solid mark of 125 on the season, according to FanGraphs (100 is league-average). The concerns come into focus when looking at how he has performed each month. After posing wRC+ marks of 166 and 130 in June and July, Lewis has disappointed, having a 95 wRC+ in August and 59 wRC+ so far in September. That simply is not going to cut it for a middle-of-the-order bat.

There also is a direct correlation between Lewis' decline in offensive production and his bat speed declining as the season has gone on (credit to Mike Petriello on X for pointing this out). Lewis' average bat speed in his hot months of June and July were at 74.3 mph and 73.9 mph respectively, according to Baseball Savant. In August his average bat speed fell to 72.7 mph, and it is at 72.5 mph so far in September.

This is a clear indication that Lewis might be wearing down late in the year. The injuries this year don't help, and hopefully, Lewis will be ready to play full seasons in the future. But for now, this is a concerning trend for this season.

Willi Castro, INF/OF

Willi Castro was a big part of the Twins' success earlier on in the season, earning a trip to the All-Star Game as a result of his performance. The versatility to play the infield and outfield doesn't hurt either, but one does have to question if he peaked early on in the season, especially when considering that he had an up-and-down career with the Tigers before signing with the Twins ahead of the 2023 season.

Like Lewis did, Castro put up great offensive numbers in the early going, posting wRC+ marks of 110, 131, and 151 in the first three months of the season respectively, according to FanGraphs. He has disappointed since then. In July, Castro had a 68 wRC+, followed by a more respectable 99 in August, and an abysmal -14 mark so far in September.

Due to Castro's versatility, he will likely find himself in the lineup more often than not. His first-half performance proved to not be sustainable, but hopefully, he can perform more like he did in August, which was right around league-average offensively. The level of play in July and to this point in September is not acceptable.

Caleb Thielbar, RP

The Twins' bullpen has been a sore spot in the second half of the season, and while much of the panic has been directed at closer Jhoan Duran due to his dip in velocity and recent poor outing against the Royals, he has been a victim of bad luck and bad defense more than anything this season. The depth of the bullpen has been the problem, and someone like Caleb Thielbar sticks out, as he is in the middle of what might be his worst season in a Twins uniform.

Thielbar is a bit of a victim of Minnesota's roster moves, as some other relief pitchers who have been let go would have been good candidates for this spot. However, his current 5.62 ERA is the worst of his career, according to FanGraphs. It would be unfair to point out Duran's bad luck without bringing up that Thielbar's xERA 4.22 indicates some bad luck for him as well. However, Thielbar's walks are way up, currently at 4.10 BB/9 in comparison to 1.76 in 2023.

Thielbar has been a solid reliever since debuting with the Twins in 2013. It has been a stark drop-off in performance this season, and Minnesota has desperately needed someone like him to regain form out of the bullpen in the second half.

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