3 reasons why a healthy Alex Kirilloff is crucial for the Twins
Alex Kirilloff has remained a focal point of the Minnesota Twins' future ever since his first-round selection in the 2016 MLB Draft. His ability to put the bat on the ball and hit to all fields has always kept him high on the radar of Twins fans and the rest of the baseball world.
The Pittsburgh native dominated pitching throughout his minor league career, sporting a .895 OPS with 48 home runs and 212 RBI across five seasons. Those performances, along with his pedigree, led to him making 4 straight top-100 prospect lists courtesy of MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo.
Here's what Mayo had to say regarding Kirilloff's hitting ability prior to his 2020 debut:
Hit (60): We might be light on his hit grade, truth be told. Kirilloff has a .317/.365/.498 line in his Minor League career, he hit well at Summer Camp before this year began and all reports were that he was flat-out raking during his time at the Twins' alternate training site. He makes hard contact all the time and drives the ball to all fields. Kirilloff doesn’t strike out much (16.1 percent strikeout rate) and has a career 6.5 percent walk rate, which went up a bit in Double-A a year ago.
There's no question Kirilloff possesses the talent and experience to become a key part of the Twins lineup. The only thing holding him back? Injuries.
Dating back to his minor league debut, Kiriloff has missed a considerable amount of games. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2017 season. Early in 2019, he suffered a sprained wrist that resulted in multiple IL stints throughout the season. That same wrist has plagued him ever since.
In 2021, Kirilloff played 59 games (.251/ .299/ .423) with the Twins while battling nagging wrist pain. He then underwent season-ending surgery in July to alleviate it. Sadly, it didn't. Kiriloff again fought through pain in 2022 before ultimately deciding to undergo another season-ending surgery.
This most recent surgery, shortening the bone in his forearm, was deemed by many to be a last-ditch effort to save his wrist. Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com documented these sentiments during an interview with Twins manager Rocco Baldelli:
Obviously, this isn’t something that would be contemplated or done unless we thought it was absolutely necessary -- unless AK thought it was absolutely necessary, and the doctor, too.
The bad news? The surgery was likely a desperate attempt to salvage Kirilloff's career. The good news? The surgery may have worked. According to a recent tweet from Park, Kirilloff has entered 2023 Spring Training on the right track:
"No setbacks, no concern" for Alex Kirilloff early in camp, Falvey says.
— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) February 14, 2023
"AK has been in a great spot. Our strength guys said [the wrist is] probably in as good of a spot as they've seen him coming into camp, where he's at. The early returns on swinging are very positive."
A healthy Alex Kirilloff has a chance to not only positively impact the lineup but also answer some important questions about the Twins' future. Let's discuss why.
Twins Need a Left-Handed Bat at the Top of the Lineup
Following the trade that sent Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez and others, the Twins find themselves without the reigning AL Batting Champion and a key left-handed bat at the top of the lineup. Why is the latter important? The Twins are now even more right-hand heavy at the top.
In order of OPS (on base % + slugging %), the Twins six top hitters last season were Royce Lewis (12 games), Carlos Correa (R), Byron Buxton (R), Luis Arraez (L), Gio Urshela (R), and Jose Miranda (R). Removing Arraez, Urshela, and even Lewis leaves three RH bats carrying the load.
Additionally, the AL Central is loaded with right-handed starting pitching talent. Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, Casey Mize, Spencer Turnbull, Matt Manning, Zack Greinke, and Brady Singer are all tough righties the Twins will see.
Luckily for the Twins, they don't have a shortage of left-handed bats on the roster: Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Polanco (switch), Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and most importantly (in my opinion) Alex Kirilloff. However, these lefties haven't proven they can be a consistent bat at the top.
This is where Alex Kirilloff can emerge as a lefty weapon the Twins have sorely needed. Using 2018 as an example (his only healthy minor league season), Kirilloff tee'd off on right-handed pitching: In 421 PA's, his slash line was .343/ .394/ .586 with 14 HR's and 70 RBI's against them.
Alex Kirilloff hit his first dinger of the year tonight, making him the 203rd player in #MNTwins history to homer in multiple seasons for the club. pic.twitter.com/IcD9V4cduR
— Twins Dingers (@TwinsDingers) June 30, 2022
I firmly believe he can regain the form he displayed throughout his minor league career if his wrist is truly healthy. As a result, a healthy Alex Kirilloff would undoubtedly be the left-handed bat the Twins need at the top of the lineup.
Twins Don't Have a True First Baseman
The Luis Arraez trade created an additional hole at first base for the Twins defensively. In 2022, the Twins utilized eight different players at the position with Arraez and Jose Miranda carrying the bulk.
While Arraez's defensive statistics at first base were solid, Miranda's were not. In 77 games at first base in 2022, Miranda had -12 runs saved above average pace per 135 games according to Baseball Info Solutions. He also had three errors compared to Arraez's zero.
By comparison, Alex Kirilloff has had a combined +10 runs saved above average pace per 135 games in his games at first base from 2021 to 2022. Drafted as an outfielder, team needs pushed him to first base in 2021 where he showed a natural ability to play the position at a high level.
The Twins do have other first base options. Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Kyle Farmer all have experience at the position. However, the Twins need to keep Gallo and Kepler in the outfield to maximize their defensive value while allowing Farmer to fill in other positions on rest days.
A healthy Alex Kirilloff will solve the first base conundrum and allow the Twins to have more defensive flexibility.
Clarity Regarding the Future
As it stands now, the Twins will soon have several important decisions to make on their young and talented infield. With Correa at short, Miranda at third, Polanco at second, and Kirilloff at first, there aren't any clear openings for prospects Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien to break in.
Royce Lewis deserves a spot on this roster when healthy, no if and or but's about it. Brooks Lee and Edouard Julien both look ready for a shot at the bigs as well after impressive seasons in the minors.
Working on Royce Lewis’ prospect preview for 2023.
— Nash Walker (@Nashwalker9) February 12, 2023
His debut was so much fun. pic.twitter.com/jUGgyoFuGE
As a result, Kirilloff's health will play a large factor in the Twins' decisions for the future. If Kirilloff proves he can stay healthy and play at a high level, he would likely lock down the first base position for the foreseeable future.
In this scenario, trading Jorge Polanco would likely make the most sense. It would open up an infield spot for the previously mentioned prospects and possibly improve the middle infield defense. Royce Lewis may be asked to play the outfield more as well. Trading one of the prospects at the deadline also may make sense.
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However, if Kirilloff cannot stay healthy, the Twins will have to make a confident decision regarding his future on the team. Miranda would be the most likely candidate to slide over to first.
In this scenario, third base would likely be opened up. The Twins could still trade Polanco if they want to commit to their youth in the infield. Royce Lewis would have a greater chance to play the infield.
A healthy Alex Kirilloff will answer a lot of the Twins' questions regarding the future construct of the team.