For all the issues Minnesota Twins fans have had to endure over the past few years, the team’s constant slashing of payroll may be at the top of the list. The Pohlad family’s preference toward making a profit against putting a competitive product on the field has alienated most of the team’s loyal fans and it has them wondering which of their favorite players could be the next “right-sized” departure next winter.
As of right now, Ryan Jeffers may be the next one on the list. Jeffers is having a strong season for the Twins as he looks to cash in next offseason and while it may be a worthy investment to extend Jeffers, who will turn 29 in June, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes may have inadvertently suggested he may become too expensive to keep.
“When he becomes a free agent after the season, Jeffers will be one of the better catchers to hit the open market in a long time,” Hayes wrote. “He could also be a hot commodity at the trade deadline.”
Ryan Jeffers’s breakout could price himself out of Twins’ plans
According to Spotrac, Jeffers has a projected market value of $6.4 million per season but that number could spike if he keeps hitting like he has in 2026. Entering Monday’s series opener against the Houston Astros, Jeffers is posting a career-high batter’s line of .294/.410/.538 and slugged his seventh home run of the season in Sunday’s 5-4 win over the Milwaukee Brewers.
This could only get better if Jeffers keeps it up. According to Stathead, there have only been six seasons that a catcher has had Jeffers’s current statline with at least 300 at-bats during a season. The last to do it was former Boston Red Sox catcher Mike Napoli, who hit .320/.313/.631 with 30 homers and 75 RBI in 2011. But before that, Joe Mauer did it in his 2009 American League Most Valuable Player season, hitting .365/.444/.587 with 28 homers and 96 RBI.
Jorge Posada (2007), Mike Piazza (1996, 1997) and Chris Hoiles (1993) are the only other catchers to hit those numbers in a single season since the expansion era began in 1961 and it runs even deeper with analytics available.
Jeffers’s Baseball Savant page also passes Carlos Correa’s “saw a lot of red” eye test from 2022, as he’s posted his strikeout rate to a career-low 15.9% and bumped his walk rate to a career-high 15.9%. With an adequate defensive game behind the plate, Jeffers is having an All-Star caliber season. But it also could get him paid when he hits free agency next winter.
J.T. Realmuto was the catcher with the biggest free agent contract last offseason as he signed a three-year, $45 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. But Realmuto is also 35 years old and is well past the prime of his career. A better comparison may be Realmuto’s 2021 deal with the Phillies, where he agreed to a five-year, $115 million contract at the age of 30 but that came with a longer offensive track record than Jeffers, who is having an excellent contract year.
Looking at Spotrac’s current data, Jeffers could still get a strong offer if he keeps hitting like this. Alejandro Kirk of the Toronto Blue Jays ($11.6 million AAV) and Sean Murphy of the Atlanta Braves ($12.1 million) are possible estimates for an extension and those numbers don’t feel like something the Twins are willing to commit to given the state of ownership and MLB’s looming labor issues.
With this data, it’s not a surprise that the New York Yankees have already been linked as a potential suitor and there’s a chance the Twins have been preparing for Jeffers’s departure.
MLB Pipeline currently has Eduardo Tait, who was acquired in the Jhoan Duran trade with the Phillies last summer, as the No. 3 prospect in the system, although that comes with an estimated arrival date of 2028. Victor Caratini is also signed through next season and the Twins have Alex Jackson and Noah Cardenas as options at Triple-A St. Paul.
This may be extremely frustrating for fans who just want to see the Pohlads invest in the current team. And it could have been prevented if they had agreed to an extension with Jeffers last offseason. But with the season currently looking like it’s spinning wheels and ownership unwilling to spend, Jeffers could be on the block when the July trade deadline approaches.
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