While the Minnesota Twins work their way through an inconsistent offense, hoping to fix their Royce Lewis problem, it has been their pitching staff that has been the backbone of their success over the last month.
The success story in the Twins' rotation this season has been Joe Ryan. Through his first 12 appearances this season, 11 of which were starts, Ryan is carrying an ERA of 2.91. There is a little bit of luck involved in that number. Ryan has an expected ERA of 3.31 and FIP of 3.49, suggesting that he has been the beneficiary of good defense during his starts. Nevertheless, as the Twins find themselves back in postseason contention, Ryan has certainly been one of the primary reasons for their surge.
Ryan's success is getting national attention, as The Athletic (Subscription Required) made the case for him to make the All-Star Game this season, but even more praise was heaped onto him by Eno Sarris of The Athletic (Subscription Required). In his power rankings of starting pitchers for the remainder of the season, Sarris has Ryan as No. 18.
Sarris has all the rightful praise for Ryan, but he ends with an ominous warning.
"The only risk comes from durability, and a fluctuating home run rate that's often tied to that number on the radar gun," Sarris warns.
Joe Ryan regression warning hiding in plain sight for Twins
Ryan's home run numbers are noticeably down this season. Ryan's home run to fly ball ratio is currently at 9.9%, down from 11.7% last season. For his career, he's at 11.8%. Ryan's home runs allowed per 9 innings pitched are also down this season, sitting at a mark of 1.19%. His career average is 1.40%.
The success Ryan is having with avoiding home runs also circles back to the idea that there is some luck involved. Ryan's hard-hit percentage this season, 40.4%, is the second-highest mark of his career. Beyond that, opposing batters are barreling up Ryan more than they ever have before at 13.5%. If it stays that way, that would be the highest amount of Ryan's career.
So, yes, Ryan has been very good this season, and if the Twins can find offensive consistency, that should continue. However, the underlying numbers would suggest there is a slight regression due.