The Minnesota Twins concluded the 2024 season with a double-digit collapse in the American League Wild Card standings and fans hoping for a rebound in 2025 may be disappointed when looking at the most recent odds provided by BetMGM via The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman.
The online sportsbook has given the Twins the second-best odds to win the American League Central Division in 2025 at +240 but while Minnesota could walk away with a division crown, Vegas isn’t high on their overall success, posting an over/under of 83.5 wins entering next season.
Minnesota Twins haven’t inspired Vegas’s confidence for 2025 season
The Twins’ projected win total in 2025 is lower than the 85.5 wins they were projected to reach in 2024 but higher than the 82.5 wins they were projected for ahead of the 2023 season. While the Twins hit the mark with 87 wins in 2023, they fell short last season with 82 wins.
Perhaps Vegas felt cheated (or elated) by the fact the Twins earned their 78th victory with 16 games to play on Sept. 11 but they’ve done nothing to raise expectations this offseason. The biggest headlines from last week’s Winter Meetings were that the Twins were listening to trade offers on star shortstop Carlos Correa and that players such as Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez could be moved in “salary dump” trades before a move to improve the roster is made.
Even if a move is made, the Twins' budget constraints, which project the team to operate with a $130 million payroll, may not allow them to add a player that could bump their win total or improve their +1500 odds of winning the American League pennant next season.
Minnesota Twins should still be considered favorites in the American League Central
While the Twins haven’t gotten better, neither has their competition. The Guardians are the favorites to repeat as AL Central champions at +210 odds, but they have the same projected win total as the Twins after trading Andres Gimenez to the Toronto Blue Jays.
There’s also the chance the Guardians could trade Lane Thomas or Bo Naylor, opening the door for the Twins or another team to win the division. The Detroit Tigers (+290) and Kansas City Royals (+325) both made the playoffs as Wild Cards a year ago but a lack of moves has the Tigers as the third time in the division with an 83.5 win total while the Royals have a projected total of 82.5 wins.
Then there’s the Chicago White Sox. After coming off the worst season in MLB history at 41-121, Chicago has a projected win total of 49.5 and 250-to-1 odds of winning the division.
The presence of the White Sox could inflate the win totals in the AL Central as they did last year when four teams including the Twins posted winning records. But even if there is a shrewd betting opportunity, fans hope the Twins will easily clear BetMGM’s low bar to become a contender in 2025.