It feels like most 2026 MLB mock drafts, including FanSided's recent one, predict the Minnesota Twins will select Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey with the third overall pick. However, a recent mock draft from MLB.com has the Twins selecting the top pitching prospect in the class, UC Santa Barbara junior right-hander Jackson Flora, MLB Pipeline's No. 4 overall draft prospect.
Flora leads all qualified Division-I pitchers in ERA at 1.05. In 94 1/3 innings this year, Flora has a dominant 33.3% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a .158 opponent batting average.
The 6-foot-5 right-hander's fastball sits in the 96-97 mph range and frequently reaches triple digits, "with good shape, carry and armside ride," per MLB Pipeline. He complements his fastball with a 78-81 mph sweeper with plenty of horizontal depth, an 86-89 mph gyro-like slider and a hard changeup with "downer splitter depth."
Flora aims to help No. 2 UC Santa Barbara make it past the Austin Regional, which includes No. 6 Texas, Tarleton State and Holy Cross. Flora's team is slated to take on Tarelton State first, but his coach may save him for the tougher matchup against Texas.
If the Twins draft Flora, the team will further bolster their strong starting pitching pipeline. If Flora develops as planned, he will probably be in the majors in 2028 if not late 2027.
Let's say the Twins draft Flora and he's part of the club's 2028 rotation, which will likely be led by Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and Connor Prielipp. Candidates to fill out the rest of the 2028 rotation include Zebby Matthews, Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto and Riley Quick.
Should the Twins draft Lackey or Flora?
Personally, I'd be happy with either pick. Another prospect the Twins could draft in the first round is high school shortstop Jacob Lombard, whom Sports Illustrated predicts Minnesota will select. Lombard wouldn't be a terrible pick, but I'd prefer the Twins select Lackey or Flora, since both have had success at a higher level than Lombard.
Lackey, who is slashing .410/.527/.780 (173 wRC+) with 18 homers across 57 games this season, would be a solid pick for Minnesota, but the Twins already have promising catching prospects in Eduardo Tait and Enrique Jimenez. Therefore, Twins fans should be content if Minnesota drafts Flora. The Twins have plenty of promising young pitchers, but pitchers suffer injuries at an extremely high rate. Minnesota would be smart to draft Flora.
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