Does anyone else remember the “good old days” when we would count down the games until the Twins clinched their division? The Magic Number, we used to call it. From 2002 through 2010, it was an exciting time to be a Minnesota Twins fan, with six division titles in that span and plenty of seasons where they were at least in the mix. After those final years in the Metrodome and the first few at Target Field, fans had to wait until 2019 to see another division crown, followed by wins in the shortened 2020 season and again in 2023.
But 2024 brought an 82-80 record and a fourth-place finish in the AL Central, just four games shy of a Wild Card berth. Now in 2025, the Twins haven’t sniffed a tight postseason race all year. Aside from a 13-game winning streak in May, they’ve struggled to put together stretches of consistent play, stumbling out of the All-Star break and reshaping the roster at the deadline. Still, the infusion of energy from the new young guns has sparked a renewed brand of baseball—ugly at times, yes, but filled with heart—and it has fans asking the question once more: “Do the Twins have a chance to make the playoffs?”
As a Twins contributor on Puckett's Pond and in my own personal Twins fandom, I lean more towards the realistic (if somewhat critical) view of things, so when I've been asked "do the Twins have a chance?" my initial response is "no." A quick look at the standings confirms my assertion; however, most who ask if the Twins could get to the postseason already know what the score is. They'd like to see if it was possible at all - and that is what we will do here today.
The Current State of Affairs
As of today, August 19, the Twins are 58-66 and are currently 9.0 games back of the AL's third Wild Card spot. In the Central, they are in fourth place and are 14.5 games back, with the Detroit Tigers holding an 8.5 game lead on the second-place Cleveland Guardians. Barring some catastrophic incident, Detroit should run away with the division. Cleveland is 3.0 games out of the Wild Card, chasing the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Seattle Mariners. As fans can see, there are several solid teams ahead of the Twins in their division and the Wild Card race.
Mathematically, the Twins are not yet eliminated from the postseason. FanGraphs currently has them sitting with a .7% chance of making the playoffs. Other websites (DraftKings, Baseball-Reference.com, etc.) vary in their assessment, some floating just north of 1%. For the sake of ease, we'll average and round the Twins' current chances to1%. That is the current state of affairs in Twins Territory. Minnesota has a 1% chance to make the playoffs, about the same probability as being audited by the IRS on an income tax return, but what would that 1% chance look like if it came to fruition?
What Would Need to Happen
For the Twins to cash in on their 1% chance of a playoff berth, several things would have to happen that approach the level of a miracle taking place. Stay with me here, this is going to sound like a pipe dream, but it mathematically checks out for now:
1. Win and keep on winning.
With 38 games left in the season, the best record the Twins can attain is 96-66. Yes, this means not losing another game. Since that has even less than a 1% chance of happening, more like zero, let's look at something slightly more attainable.
The third-place WC team (Boston) is on pace to finish with 86-87 wins. This means that the Twins would need to go 29-9 down the stretch to reach 87 wins to squeak by the Red Sox or to tie them. These two teams are 3-3 in their head-to-head matchups this year, as a reference. This is an insane scenario, but still theoretically possible.
2. Climb through the WC in head-to-head matchups.
While the Twins are looking up at the Guardians, Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, and Los Angeles Angels in the WC race, they do have several late-season opportunities to move up the standings in head-to-head contests. The Twins will play three more games against KC, four against the Guardians, and three against the Rangers - setting the stage for some potential leapfrogging in the WC IF the Twins can pull out some wins by punching above their weight.
3. Get a little help from your friends.
Of course, even with a strong last push to the end of the season, the 1% chance won't happen for the Twins without a bit of help. If the current Wild Card teams (Yankees/Red Sox/Mariners) and their immediate chasers (Guardians/Royals/Rangers) slump and play at or just below .500, say even .450, this would lower the win threshold for the Twins from 87 down to 84 or 85 wins to make the final WC spot.
Is this likely? Again, the realist in me says "no," but the Twins know as well as anyone that the injury bug can strike hard and fast. The Yankees' starting rotation has been plagued by injuries this year. The Red Sox have shown defensive vulnerabilities, and Cleveland has a relatively young team, like the Twins, and that can go either way. If any of the six teams ahead of the Twins can trip up, it may open the door for Minnesota to move up.
A 1% chance is close to zero; it is on par with a miracle occurrence, but it is still a chance. Many things would need to go right for the Twins, and very wrong for others, but that is the magic and allure of baseball. Even if the odds are slim to none, all a team needs is an opportunity, and the impossible can happen.