One has to figure Joe Ryan will be a trade candidate this winter, as the Twins listened to offers on him at the trade deadline this summer but ultimately didn't receive a deal to their liking. Additionally, the Twins added three starting pitchers (Mick Abel, Taj Bradley and Kendry Rojas) at the trade deadline while also shedding salary, which suggests a trade of Ryan, who will become more expensive next season, is likely to occur this winter.
Ryan started the season strong, posting a 2.72 ERA with 121 strikeouts in over 109 1/3 innings en route to earning the first All-Star Game nod of his career. However, Ryan has struggled since the All-Star break.
Twins ace Joe Ryan tanking trade value with poor second half
Ryan has had a great season, boasting a 3.47 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate in 166 innings. Still, it's impossible to ignore the regression he has faced in the second half. Since the All-Star break, Ryan has posted a 4.92 ERA in 56 1/3 innings.
Ryan's second-half regression doesn't appear to be an anomaly for the ace, either. Historically, Ryan has typically started seasons hot before struggling later in the year.
Joe Ryan's career ERA by month:
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 20, 2025
April — 2.77
May — 2.59
June — 4.25
July — 4.80
Aug. — 4.41
Sept. — 4.45
The Twins should still be able to receive a good haul of prospects and/or young major-leaguers in exchange for Ryan if they decide to move on from him this winter. Still, one has to wonder if his second-half regression this season will make him less desirable to teams looking to add a front-of-the-rotation starter, especially since it's possible his struggles would carry into the postseason if the Twins were in a spot to play in October.
While Ryan's rough second half isn't ideal for the Twins, it still benefits them in multiple ways. First off, Ryan will likely make less money in arbitration than he would have if he continued his first-half success this year. Second off, the Twins may not receive an offer to their liking for Ryan anymore, which will ensure Ryan is on the 2026 team, putting them in a much better position to make the playoffs.