It's been a rough couple of days for AL Central starting pitchers.
On Sunday, Twins starter Joe Ryan exited Minnesota's game against the Toronto Blue Jays with right elbow soreness after facing just two batters. While it's possible that Ryan could be dealing with inflammation and be out for less than a month, similar to Mick Abel, undergoing season-ending surgery is also in the cards. The fact that Minnesota has yet to announce the severity of Ryan's injury suggests it could be pretty serious.
On Monday, ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, who won back-to-back AL Cy Young awards the last two seasons, will need arthroscopic surgery for loose bodies in his left (throwing) elbow. The surgery typically sidelines players for two to three months.
While the Twins' bullpen is a mess and several position players, such as Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall, are severely underperforming, the Skubal injury news likely boosted the Twins' faint playoff odds. Unfortunately, with Ryan likely to miss significant time, it still seems extremely improbable that Minnesota will sneak into the postseason. If Ryan, who has a 3.72 ERA over 38 2/3 innings in 2026, unexpectedly misses minimal time, then sure, there will at least be some hope that the Twins can win the weak AL Central or claim a Wild Card spot. But it's difficult to imagine that the Twins could make the playoffs without Ryan, especially since fellow top-of-the-rotation starter Pablo López underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in February.
Here are the current AL Central standings:
1. Cleveland Guardians: (18-17, .514) — -3 RD
2. Detroit Tigers: (18-17, .514) — +18 RD
3. Chicago White Sox (16–18, .471) — 1.5 GB, -15 RD
4. Kansas City Royals (15–19, .441) — 2.5 GB, -17 RD
3. Minnesota Twins (15–20, .429) — 3 GB, -5 RD
Even with Skubal set to miss signficant time, Twins need a miracle to make playoffs
The Tigers still likely have the best chance to win the division. However, it's important not to count out the Guardians, regardless of their run differential, as they always seem to perform better than expected. Meanwhile, the Twins have plenty of talent, but probably not enough to win the division without Ryan, no matter how weak it is. If Minnesota wants to win the AL Central, the team would likely need the rest of the rotation to stay healthy, a complete bullpen overhaul, and young, struggling hitters like Lewis, Wallner and Keaschall to turn their seasons around fast.
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