After months of speculation, Juan Soto has finally made his big free agency decision and the Minnesota Twins were unfortunately outbid by approximately $764.5 million. The New York Mets won the Soto sweepstakes, paying out the largest contract in North American sports history to land the most coveted free agent of the offseason.
It’s an extraordinary amount of money, the kind Minnesota ownership broke out in a cold sweat at just the thought of spending. The deal signals more of a beginning than an end, though, as now that Soto has signed the hot stove will finally start to heat up like we’re used to seeing.
While the Twins are the furtherest planet from the offseason sun, the market starting to move and the deal that Soto signed does have an impact on them in a few ways moving forward.
How the Mets signing Juan Soto impacts the Twins
No more dumb Carlos Correa trade rumors (maybe)
One of the more surprising — and nagging — things this winter has been the persistent murmurs about Carlos Correa being a trade candidate. It’s not hard to see how we got here, as teh way the Twins season flamed out combined with how frugal they’re expected to be this winter makes it easy for reckless speculation connecting Correa to the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers.
Two of those teams are out of the running from a money standpoint, though, with the Mets joining the fray after signing Soto. It’s not outside the realm of reality for Steve Cohen to chase a $765 million deal by adding Correa, but taking on the rest of his $200 million feels like a weird outcome.
Beyond that, the Twins would need a haul in return for Correa which the Mets can’t really offer without throwing things out of whack. New York does have the No. 13 ranked farm system in baseball but it’s also a hard sell to give up a top prospect for Correa, especially since he’s being bizarrely marketed as a buy-low trade candidate.
Meanwhile, the Yankees were connected to Correa in the rumor mill but the major hang up here is that he doesn’t play the outfield. New York missed out on Soto which means it’s going to figure out how to fill gaps around Aaron Judge before making a move for Correa. Even then, the Yankees already have Anthony Volpe at shortstop so making a deal is the kind of excessiveness even New York probably won’t indulge in.
The entire idea of trading Correa is a form of waving the white flag that the Twins can’t afford to do. It sends all the wrong signals to a team that is supposed to be serious about competing, but now that Soto has landed with the Mets these weird whispers will finally go away.
Free agent and trade market should get going now
Much like last season when we were all waiting around for Shohei Ohtani to sign, it seems as though Juan Soto was the linchpin to other offseason moves happening. He wasn’t holding up the market the same way Ohtani was, as Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, and Willy Adames had no problem signing deals but now the floodgates are really expected to open up.
The Twins never jump to the front of the line on offseason moves and typically don’t make a splash at the Winter Meetings, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential moves to make. Minnesota needs to address first base and pitching, as well as finding some outfield depth which could mean some lower wattage moves while other teams go Big Game Hunting.
Where the Soto deal impacts the Twins is the mid-tier and low-tier market, where there could be some movement from teams who missed out. The Yankees are expected to go after Cody Bellinger in a trade and the Dodgers are always a wild card to spend and then put the contracts on a Klanara payment plan, but the Twins were never going to compete with them for free agents.
There are two potential outcomes to this: either the market inflates because there’s a mad dash to make up for missing out on Soto or the top-heavy targets get bid up while the market Minnesota usually shops in plateaus.
Beyond free agency, the place where Minnesota could strike now is the trade market where the team is prime for some salary dumps. Chris Paddack and Christian Vazquez are candidates to get dumped and free up some payroll and roster space, and the chaos of the post-Soto market might provide an opportunity.
All of this is assuming Minnesota will even make moves, which usually isn’t the case. The Twins don’t start their shopping until after the New Year, which might actually be the right move this year so that they don’t get caught in the riptide of a chaotic market. There are absolutely moves that need to be made, but the third wave of free agency is probably where we will see Minnesota strike.
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