Twins right-handed starting pitcher Chris Paddack had his fourth straight quality start in Minnesota’s 7-2 loss against the Tampa Bay Rays at Steinbrenner Field on Monday, allowing two earned runs on five hits and zero walks while striking out five. His two earned runs allowed came on a three-run home run from Jonathan Aranda against righty Brock Stewart, who relieved Paddack with two runners on and one out in the bottom of the sixth inning.
Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack has been outstanding since his poor first two outings of the season
Early in the season, Paddack seemed likely to be moved to the bullpen or lose his roster spot. In his first start of the season, Paddack surrendered a staggering nine earned runs in 3 ⅓ innings against the Chicago White Sox. His next start wasn’t great either, giving up four runs, three earned, on seven hits and two walks in four innings against the Houston Astros.
But since then, Paddack has been one of the key reasons Minnesota’s pitching staff has the highest fWAR in the American League with 9.2. In nine starts since his poor outing against Houston, Paddack has posted an outstanding 2.34 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 50 innings, improving his season ERA to 3.92.
The question is, can Paddack continue his newfound success?
Probably not.
Underlying statistics suggest Paddack will likely regress
Although Paddack deserves credit for how well he has pitched lately, it’s impossible to ignore some of his underlying statistics.
Paddack, who has counted mainly on his four-seam fastball this year, holds a 20.4 Whiff% (18th percentile), 16.1 K% (14th percentile), 45.1 Hard-Hit% (23rd percentile) and 40.1% Ground-Ball% (37th percentile). Additionally, he has a 47.5% fly ball rate, whereas the MLB average this season is 26.4%. Undoubtedly, Byron Buxton and Harrison Bader’s elite outfield defense has helped Paddack, who has an average opponent exit velocity of 90.5 mph (38th percentile).
At the end of the day, the results have been outstanding for Paddack, and he deserves to continue to be counted on as the Twins’ fourth starter in the rotation. But don’t be surprised if he regresses significantly.