Building Paul Skenes to the Twins trade packages

The Pittsburgh Pirates are more than likely not going to trade Paul Skenes this year. In fact, it's been reported multiple times that the Pirates have no interest in trading Skenes this season. Jon Heyman was told "no chance, no way, no how" when discussing a trade of the 23-year-old ace. However, Jim Bowden recently noted that the Pirates' stance isn't going to stop teams from making offers on Skenes, with multiple GMs telling Bowden that they will be making "serious offers to acquire him."

While teams making efforts to acquire Skenes doesn't mean that the Pirates will have an increased willingness to deal him, it's certainly worth discussing. The Pirates are currently 28-42, a record that is better than only the White Sox, Athletics, Marlins, and Rockies right now. They haven't finished a season with a winning record since 2018, haven't been in the playoffs since 2015, and haven't won their division since 1992, at which point the entire league featured just four divisions, and most of their current roster wasn't even born yet. In addition to all of this, there doesn't seem to be much hope for a turnaround anytime soon. They haven't signed a free agent to a multi-year contract since 2016 and have been largely criticized in recent years for the lack of moves toward building a winning team.

Enough criticizing the Pirates, though. Let's talk about Paul Skenes. Skenes was selected first overall in the 2023 MLB draft after a dominant college season at LSU and quickly made his way through the Pirates' minor league system, making his big league debut in May of 2024. He made 23 starts as a rookie last season, posting a 1.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP with 170 strikeouts and 32 walks in 133 innings. His outstanding rookie season earned him the NL Rookie of the Year award, and he has only continued the dominance this season. Through 14 starts, he has a 1.88 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts in an MLB-best 91 innings. Skenes has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in baseball at just 23 years old and would be a dream trade addition for any team that has aspirations of contending this year or in years to come. He is under team control through the 2029 season and isn't even arbitration-eligible until after the 2026 season.

How do we even come up with a trade value for Skenes?

There isn't really a good comparison, especially in recent years, for what a Paul Skenes trade would look like. The closest thing we've seen in recent years was the Juan Soto trade that sent the superstar outfielder to the Padres at the trade deadline in 2022. Soto, like Skenes, was 23 years old at the time but had two fewer years of team control remaining. It's hard to compare a starting pitcher to an outfielder, but the extra years of team control likely mean that Skenes would command even more of a return in a trade than Soto did.

The return that the Nationals received in the Soto trade was astronomical. They received four of the top five prospects per MLB.com's rankings in a Padres system that was very highly regarded at the time, netting James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, and Robert Hassell III while also receiving Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit and sending Josh Bell to the Padres in addition to Soto. We have since seen James Wood blossom into one of the best young players in baseball, MacKenzie Gore become an elite starting pitcher, and CJ Abrams become the Nationals' everyday shortstop. Even Hassell III was recently called up by the Nationals. The trade worked out great for the Nationals in regard to the return that they received, but the idea is clear: the Pirates would receive multiple young players who they believe could turn into long-term, prominent pieces of their roster.

Package #1: Young Prospects Galore

The package: OF Walker Jenkins, OF Emmanuel Rodríguez, INF Kaelen Culpepper, RHP Charlee Soto, INF Kyle DeBarge, LHP Dasan Hill, RHP C.J. Culpepper, and OF Eduardo Beltre

This package revolves around an idea that the Pirates are looking towards competing multiple years down the road, with the Twins sending back eight prospects who have yet to make their major league debuts. The headliner here is obviously Walker Jenkins, who the Twins selected fifth overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the same draft in which the Pirates selected Skenes. Rankings vary, but Jenkins is typically regarded as a top-10 prospect in all of baseball. The package also includes a large chunk of the top end of the Twins system in Emmanuel Rodríguez, Kaelen Culpepper, Charlee Soto, and Dasan Hill. All four of these players have had great starts to their minor league careers. Culpepper, Hill, and Kyle DeBarge were all among the Twins' selections in the 2024 MLB draft. C.J. Culpepper was selected by the Twins in the 2022 MLB draft and has had good results in his professional career to this point despite some injury issues. Eduardo Beltre, just 18 years old, had a great professional debut last season. This package is full of young talent and would absolutely gut the Twins' system. But we're talking about Paul Skenes.

Package #2: MLB-Ready Talent

The package: INF Brooks Lee, OF Emmanuel Rodríguez, RHP Zebby Matthews, RHP Andrew Morris, LHP Connor Prielipp, and C Ricardo Olivar

This one involves a lot more MLB-ready talent, with the Pirates getting a higher floor and lower ceiling than the previous package. The Twins deal Brooks Lee, who they've seen become a regular in their lineup in his sophomore season. They also ship off Emmanuel Rodríguez, as was the case in the previous package. Zebby Matthews is included here, and he'd immediately replace Skenes in the Pirates' rotation, as he debuted in the big leagues last year and was recalled about a month ago, seeing some strong early results before landing on the injured list with a shoulder injury. The Pirates also receive a three more young players whose big-league debuts look to be around the corner in Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp, and Ricardo Olivar. This one definitely hurts the Twins' current depth, but again, we're talking about Paul Skenes.

Package #3: A Combination of the Previous Two Concepts

The package: INF Luke Keaschall, OF Walker Jenkins, RHP David Festa, INF Kaelen Culpepper, LHP Dasan Hill, and OF Gabriel Gonzalez

Here, we see the Twins ship off two very prominent pieces of their immediate plans in Luke Keaschall and David Festa. Keaschall had a very strong first seven games in the big leagues prior to a forearm injury, and Festa has looked solid in his first 19 appearances between the last two seasons. The Pirates also snag elite prospect Walker Jenkins, as well as three lower-level prospects in Kaelen Culpepper, Dasan Hill, and Gabriel Gonzalez. Looking at this package, it would definitely sting to lose a group of players that includes multiple pieces of their current roster as well as high-level prospect depth, but people, we're talking about Paul Skenes.

Conclusion

It would take an absolute motherload of talent to sway the Pirates to deal their young ace, and it's possible that the Pirates don't even return the Twins' call on any of these offers. We truly have no idea what it would take for the Pirates to change their mind on their stance of not wanting to deal Skenes. What has often been the case in all of professional sports, though, is nobody is ever truly untouchable. Just four months ago, we saw the NBA world shaken when the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers, which nobody would have ever even fathomed was a possibility. There's certainly a point in which the Pirates would cave and deal their franchise cornerstone, but it's very possible that no team will reach or even approach that point with any offer they realistically make. Maybe they don't even return a call unless a team offers the 12 most valuable players in their organization. Nevertheless, it's very fun to dream, and a rotation including Paul Skenes, Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober would be an absolute blast to watch.

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