Chris Paddack is entering Year 4 with the Twins, where he has been roughly a league-average starter since the Twins acquired him (when he's been healthy). Paddack was acquired, along with Emilio Pagan, in exchange for Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker right before the 2022 season began.
Paddack was first called up in 2019 with the San Diego Padres, throwing 140.2 innings, where he accumulated a 3.33 ERA. He showed a ton of promise that year, but then had various arm issues before being traded to Minnesota.
Chris Paddack threw three fastballs to start his debut.
— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) February 26, 2019
Here's the third. Ohhh baby. pic.twitter.com/nI8AXZu3eh
Paddack started the 2022 season decently well, but was shutdown after needing Tommy John surgery for the second time. Most of 2023 was wiped out with this injury as well, but he made two appearances out of the bullpen at the end of the season for the division winning club.
Paddack had his ups and downs in 2024, going 5-3 with a 4.99 ERA over 88.1 innings pitched. He was mildly effective when healthy, but not spectacular. Paddack is slotted in as the fourth (or fifth) starting pitcher behind Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. Paddack will try to be an effective starter this coming year, but he is coming off a year where he had forearm issues.
Over the three years in Minnesota, he has throw only 115.2 innings, and pitched to an 86 ERA+, which is slightly below average. For a veteran innings eater, an 86 ERA+ would be a slight disappointment, but if he can throw more innings than last year, he could have some good value for the Twins.
At a $7.5 million salary, Paddack still has value as long as he can stay productive and healthy. Depending on the projection system you prefer, Paddack is projected for between 75 and 118 innings, worth approximately 1.0 WAR in 2025.
For value, evaluators typically say that 1.0 WAR is worth approximately $8 million on the open market, so if Paddack gives the Twins about 1.0 WAR, he will have been worth his contract for this year.
Paddack still has value and could provide quality innings out of the rotation. If the young starters take steps forward, Paddack can serve as a veteran presence among the likes of Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and other minor leaguers yet to make their debuts in Cory Lewis, Eiberson Castellano, and Andrew Morris.
While Paddack is not a frontline starter at this point, he provides value for the Twins, or another team looking to add him before the year starts, if they were to trade for him.
Could he be part of a late Spring Training trade, like he was in 2022?
It's at least possible. There have been several rumors regarding Paddack this offseason, but no trade has been worked out, so expect to see him be a back-end starting pitcher for the Twins and provide roughly 100 innings of league-average pitching for the year.
One thing we can all be thankful for, is that Paddack is okay after being hit by a line drive off the bat of Red Sox player Kristian Campbell on Saturday. It appears Paddack will be ready for Opening Day and be a league average starter, looking to bounce back from a disappointing ending to the 2024 season, much like the team is as well.
Chris Paddack faced 2 comebackers in the third inning. The 2nd was smoked, but it looked like it deflected off his glove as he fell and rolled over. Will try to confirm. No replay available. Paddock leaves the game under no signs of duress. Was pitching well before then.
— LaVelle E. Neal III (@LaVelleNeal) March 8, 2025