A 29-year-old right-hander with 163 1/3 career major league innings logged since 2019, Jorge Alcalá probably would enjoy a more prominent role in a different team's bullpen. On the Twins in 2024, he slotted after Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran and Cole Sands in high-leverage moments — even though Alcalá typically came through in those, too, when asked.
This coming season, as long as Brock Stewart is healthy, Danny Coulombe is too, and who knows who else, Alcalá also trails others on the preferential bullpen ladder. Further, if certain projections hold true, Alcalá won't even make the Opening Day roster, because Michael Tonkin and Rule 5-er Eiberson Castellano will instead.
But that doesn't mean Alcalá wouldn't frequent the light-rail shuttle to and from St. Paul.
It's a tough nut to crack for one of the hardest throwers in the league who also finished inthe 91st percentile in limiting hard contact. But Alcalá's greatest value to the Twins isn't simply his ability to get guys out.
It's his ability to get guys out while enduring the added duress of the Twins frequent exploitation of Alcalá's minor-league options. The Twins have (and still could this season) send down Alcalá suddenly for seemingly capricious reasons if it suits them. Three times they did this in 2024, the first in April when Alcalá's ERA was still 0.00.
Never was Alcalá the worst pitcher on the roster, or even the third worst. The Twins never had zero authentic reasons for demoting him, but even manager Rocco Baldelli admitted the justification for toying with Alcalá fell somewhere "within the margins" of necessity.
Rocco, on why it was Alcala optioned:
— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) April 14, 2024
"Some of those decisions, they’re kind of a little on the margins. ... There’s not a lot separating some of those guys. ... I talked to Jorge about a couple of things specifically -- working ahead of hitters, coming in with his best stuff."
And:
Even considering Alcala's recent struggles, this... definitely caught us off-guard. Obviously much more to come on this tomorrow.
— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) September 17, 2024
No matter: Alcalá took the demotions in stride (or appeared to) and finished with a 3.24 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 58 1/3 innings. He showed the aptitude to neutralize batters from either side of the plate, in high leverage and not, and typically gave the Twins a chance to win.
He also could be effective for two innings at a time, a tactic the Twins probably could have used more often.
Should he have done better, or could Alcalá still do better? Putting aside the condescending platitude that "Everyone can improve!" absolutely he could.
An extreme fly ball pitcher, Alcalá doesn't get into as much trouble with home runs as he could, but all of the homers he allowed in '24 came July 21 and later. Seven of the eight came between Aug. 4 and Sept. 11.
So the long ball is a danger if something is off-kilter.
Alcalá misses bats (70th percentile) but he doesn't strike out as many as someone with a 98 mph fastball probably should. His 24.7% K% is 64th percentile, about 2.0 percent above league average, and about 4.0 percent below his career best. He can't get batters to chase (19th percentile) because his pitch movement is only a little better than so-so horizontally, and mostly bad when measuring drop.
His four-seamer was solid, except for the home run issues in August. His slider was neutral, and that's probably why he doesn't strike out more. His other pitches show promise when looking at results, particularly his changeup. He only threw it 89 times, but batters hit .080 against it with a .120 slugging, and while some of that was luck, the expected numbers were encouraging. It also was effective in 2023, when he used it more often.
Will he be better? Maybe. Alcalá would be better off, almost certainly, pitching somewhere else where he'd be less likely to be constantly worrying about being sent to the minor leagues for reasons that often escape... reason.