Right-handed pitcher Bailey Ober enters his fifth season with the Minnesota Twins, hoping to build off his effective 2024 season. Ober finished with 18 quality starts, a 12-9 record, and 191 strikeouts.
A 12th-round draft pick out of the College of Charleston in 2017, Ober was a successful pitcher in the Twins minor leagues. After pitching 28 innings at Elizabethton, Ober earned a promotion to Single-A Cedar Rapids. Ober flourished in Iowa, finishing with a stellar 7-1 record in 14 starts, and gathered 88 strikeouts in 2018. One year later, Ober rose from High-A Fort Myers to Double-A Pensacola.
After losing his 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Ober began the 2021 season at Triple-A St. Paul, where he pitched 16 innings before receiving his first big-league callup. In his MLB debut against the Chicago White Sox on May 18, Ober pitched four innings, allowed four earned runs, and struck out four in a no-decision. He finished the season with a 3-3 record and a 4.19 ERA.
Despite losing time during the 2022 season with a right groin injury, Ober bounced back in 2023 and cemented himself as a key starter with the Twins. In 2023, Ober eclipsed 100 innings pitched and finished with 2.9 bWAR. He would replace that same bWAR in 2024.
One of the keys to success for Ober is to limit the bad days. Sure, he won more than he lost, but two of those losses were terrible outings. Twins quickly remember his first start of last season, an 11-0 loss to the Kansas City Royals, where Ober was relieved after allowing eight runs in 1.1 innings pitched.
While he was able to shake off that poor outing and climb to 12-5 on the season, his Aug. 26 start against the Atlanta Braves — granted, it was during a tornado warning — saw Ober allow nine earned runs in two innings. Ober would never register another win the rest of the season.
ZiPS projects Ober's season to fall between his 2023 and 2024 output. While his projected WAR is 2.7, closely aligned with his previous two seasons, innings pitched (156.3) and strikeouts (160) fall below what Ober showed last season.
Ober has developed into a core contributor to the Twins' starting pitching unit and should expect a solid season in 2025. While his goal to make 30 quality starts next season is audacious, he can eclipse his output of 18 last year if he can avoid the blowup early innings.