One could argue that Trevor Larnach had his breakout in 2024. Larnach went from being viewed as a potential first-round draft pick bust to becoming a key part of manager Rocco Baldelli's lineup, often hitting in the second spot.
Prior to 2024, Larnach struggled with injuries, strikeouts, and an inability to hit left-handed pitching. His career-high in games came in his rookie season (79). He averaged a career 33.6 percent strikeout rate and was coming off a 2023 season in which he hit .095/.174/.238 against southpaws.
In 2024, Larnach was able to put those concerns to rest and established himself as a legitimate major league hitter. He slashed a career-best .259/.338/.434 in 112 games while reducing his strikeout rate to a manageable 22.3%. Baldelli protected Larnach against left-handed pitching, limiting him to just 23 plate appearances.
Larnach ranked fifth among the Twins in home runs (15), fourth in OPS+ (116) and seventh in fWAR (1.5) in 2024.
The Twins are counting on Larnach to provide left-handed power alongside fellow outfielder Matt Wallner. The big question is whether Larnach will continue his upward trajectory in 2025, or revert back to the sub-100 OPS+ player he was from 2021 to 2023.
Larnach's 2024 season could provide a roadmap for 2025. He started the year on fire, slashing .394/.447/.636 in April, before cooling off while battling turf toe.
By the All-Star break, he had a .249/.313/.426 line, but finished strong in August and September, ending the second half with a .272/.368/.443 slash line. His late-season resurgence suggests his turf toe was no longer a major issue. Larnach was the rare bright spot in a Twins lineup that completely melted down the stretch.
The Twins appear to be taking steps to keep Larnach healthy by reducing his time in the outfield in 2025. Newly signed outfielder Harrison Bader figures to spend "significant amount of playing time" in left field, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic.
That's not terrible news for Larnach, who isn't known for his defense. He has a career minus-3 Outs Above Average across his four MLB seasons.
Baldelli has already hinted at this shift, deploying Larnach as the designated hitter and Bader in left field in the Twins' first Spring Training lineup. In 2024, Larnach spent roughly 50 percent of his games as a DH in 2024, and this contributed to his career-high games played. Health will be a major key to Larnach's 2025 success, and the amount of time spent at DH could be beneficial.
Another reason to be optimistic about Larnach's 2025 season is his advanced hitting metrics. His Baseball Savant page is full of red (that's good).
Larnach ranked in the 90th percentile average exit velocity, and his expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) was in the 82nd percentile, at .345. This was slightly higher than his actual wOBA of .336, suggesting he was mildly unlucky in 2024. If he can continues making the same quality of contact, he could see some positive regression in 2025.
Another key area of improvement is his ability to handle non-fastballs. Larnach will always have swing-and-miss in his game, particularly against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. However, from 2023 to 2024, he reduced his whiff rate on breaking balls from 50 percent to 34 percent (minus-16 percentage points) and 47.8 percent to 40 percent on offspeed pitches (minus-7.8 percentage points).
Neither of those whiff rates are ideal, but they represent siginficant progress. If he can take another step in the right direction, he'll be extremely dangerous. He already excels against fastballs, posting a plus-4 Run Value against 4-seamers, plus-4 against sinkers and plus-7 against cutters.
This season will be a crucial test for Larnach. Was 2024 a launching pad for sustained success or an outlier? Baldelli seems to be penciling him into the top half of the lineup, a sign of confidence in his abilities. Larnach could take another leap forward if he can stay healthy, benefit from positive regression in expected stats and further improve against offspeed pitches.
At 28, the former first-round pick has a chance to establish himself as a key middle-of-the-order bat for the Twins.