Christian Vazquez is entering the third and final year of the three-year, $30 million he signed with the Twins during the 2022-23 offseason. Will he provide the same value as the deal's first two years? Will he be more valuable, or will he be less valuable?
Let's look at the numbers:
Vazquez is more known for his glove, having only had two seasons of his career where he was an above-average hitter (2019-20 with the Red Sox). With the understanding that he brings value beyond just the numbers shown on the back of his baseball card, he provides value in calling a game and handling a pitching staff.
His first two years in Minnesota have been underwhelming offensively, totaling a slash line of .222/.265/.587, which equates to a 62 OPS+ (100 is league average).
This was also below average for the catcher position, which is slightly below average across the board. Vazquez was reportedly discussed in trades in the offseason, but a deal did not come together, so he will split time with Ryan Jeffers again.
In 2024, Vazquez ranked 45th (of 45) in OPS for catchers with a minimum of 200 plate appearances. It's safe to say he won't be hitting third or fourth in the lineup when you visit Target Field.
Jeffers outhit Vazquez by quite a bit (.732 vs. .575 OPS).
Rocco Baldelli likes to split his times pretty evenly between his two catchers, so expect to see Vazquez in more than just a traditional backup role this year. No indications show that Baldelli will do anything too differently, but based on performance, we could see Jeffers take closer to a 55/45 percent cut of the games over Vazquez.
Even with the paltry hitting numbers, Vazquez was worth plus-0.8 fWAR in 2024, so he does provide some value calling games and handling the pitching staff.
That's compared with Jeffers, who was worth 1.7 fWAR (again, the bat helps). They both started 81 games behind the plate, with Jeffers getting more playing time as the designated hitter. Even if Jeffers gets a handful more starts than Vazquez, CV will play in close to 70 games (at minimum).
Projections for Vazquez in 2025 have him taking about 20 or so fewer at-bats than this past season. Given his age and production over the past few years, it's probably a safe bet that Vazquez will provide similar value in his final year with the Twins.
ZiPS projects Vazquez for a slash line of .232/.275/.325, which would be a slight improvement over his first two years in Minnesota. Other projection systems also have Vazquez with similar outcomes as ZiPS, so that would end up being a pretty decent outcome given the possibilities.
Even if you don't believe in Vazquez's bat, or think he will slip in production, he will likely be in the lineup quite a bit more often than someone like Drew Butera was with Joe Mauer back when the Hall of Famer still played behind the plate.
While Jeffers has cemented himself as a potential long-term option behind the plate, he will still split time with Vazquez unless a trade occurs before the year begins, which appears unlikely at this time.
If you are optimistic about improvement from last year, Vazquez will provide slightly more value than the past two years and finish the year with good, but not great, numbers. If you are less optimistic, Vazquez continues to regress and even more playing time goes to Jeffers and one of Diego Cartaya, Jair Camargo or another catcher.
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— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) July 7, 2024
Vazquez is more than just a backup catcher, and has experience behind the plate in big games, so he provides plenty of value off the field in ways that numbers don't exactly quantify.