We have reached the MLB All-Star break, which means the season is over halfway complete. It also means that we are rapidly approaching the July 31st trade deadline, which is just over two weeks away. There have been all sorts of rumors revolving around the Twins and their deadline plans, but it's truly anybody's guess what road they are going to take in two weeks.
The Twins currently sit with a record of 47-49, good for second place in the AL Central and 11.5 games back of the Tigers. In the Wild Card standings, the Twins are 4 games behind the Mariners, who currently hold the third Wild Card spot. To take over that final playoff spot, they would also have to pass the Rays and Rangers. Their run differential is -8, which has improved recently after three consecutive series wins against the Rays, Cubs, and Pirates. The Twins entered the All-Star break with all sorts of positive momentum, but that hasn't stopped any speculation about a potential sale at the deadline.
Insiders and executives have tried to get a grasp on what the Twins' deadline approach may be, with all sorts of different reports stating that teams are monitoring starting pitcher Joe Ryan as a potential deadline target, andmultiple teams have shown interest in backend relievers Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax. It seems reasonable to assume that a deadline in which any of those players were sold off would also likely include some or all of the team's impending free agents being dealt, which are Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, Ty France, Christian Vázquez, Danny Coulombe, and Chris Paddack. However, reports have stated that the Twins have yet to engage in any sort of conversations about selling, which could be an indication that the team plans to buy or, at minimum, stand pat. If recent years and this front office have shown us anything, though, it's that you can never really put a finger on what types of moves the Twins are going to make until they make them.
The one thing that can thankfully be ruled out is a Byron Buxton trade, as the Twins' All-Star center fielder stated that he's a Minnesota Twin for life and wouldn't consider waiving his full no-trade clause. It seemed like an extremely long shot that the Twins would consider trading Buxton anyway, but that can now be fully ruled out.
A three-team trade that would allow the Twins to deal from a strength while also strengthening its current major league roster
The Twins have not shown any hesitancy in recent years to deal from positions of strength on their major league roster, especially when it means dealing for controllable starting pitching. In 2022, they dealt Taylor Rogers to the Padres on the eve of Opening Day in exchange for a package centered around Chris Paddack. In 2023, they dealt Luis Arráez to the Marlins in exchange for Pablo López. The current state of their roster could allow them to do something similar at this year's trade deadline, and it could come in the form of a three-team deal.
The Trade
Minnesota Twins receive: SP Nick Lodolo (from CIN)
Philadelphia Phillies receive: RP Jhoan Durán (from MIN)
Cincinnati Reds receive: OF Justin Crawford, SP Moisés Chace, INF Carson DeMartini (all from PHI)
Why the Twins say yes
The Twins' bullpen is strong, and it's among the deepest in the league. Jhoan Durán is one of the league's best closers. Griffin Jax has closer-worthy stuff and would likely step into that role in this scenario. Beyond those two, Brock Stewart and Danny Coulombe have both been excellent this year, and Louis Varland has excelled in his first season as a full-time reliever. Cole Sands and Justin Topa have handled low-leverage situations pretty well. It would hurt to lose Durán, but the Twins have shown an excellent ability to develop relievers in recent years, and there are plenty of young, upper-level starting pitchers in their system, some of whom are bound to make the transition to the bullpen at some point.
Transitioning to Nick Lodolo, he would give the Twins their first left-handed starter planted in the rotation in a long time (Devin Smeltzer? Martín Pérez? longer ago than that?), which isn't a full necessity but would certainly be nice. Lodolo, selected by the Reds in the first round of the 2019 MLB Draft, is under team control for two more seasons after this year. He has had some injury concerns in previous years, but has remained healthy this season, making 19 starts in the first half of this season to the tune of a 3.38 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP through 106.2 innings, striking out 97 and walking 22. He throws from a lower arm angle than most, with Baseball Savant specifying it at 15 degrees, and his arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a curveball, and a changeup, throwing each roughly the same amount. Lodolo would certainly be a fun arm to put in the hands of Pete Maki and the Twins' development team, and would give them a solid rotation arm for the years to come.
Why the Phillies say yes
The Phillies are at a point where they are all-in on winning right now. Their core isn't getting any younger, with guys like Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Aaron Nola all in or nearing their mid-30s. That's not to say that all or any of those players are going to hit a wall after this season, and they do still have some young talent. But this season is looking like one where they make a big move or two at the deadline with the aspirations of winning a World Series in October.
The biggest prospect the Phillies would part with in this deal is outfielder Justin Crawford, who is currently ranked #48 on MLB.com's top 100 prospects list. At Triple-A this season, the 21-year-old has slashed .331/.407/.432 with 18 doubles, 3 triples, and 2 home runs. He looks like more of a hit-over-power guy at this point, but is still an intriguing prospect. Chace and DeMartini, both 22 years old, rank 7th and 15th, respectively, on the Phililes top-30 prospects list per MLB.com. This feels like a package that the Phillies would be willing to part with in order to land an elite late-inning reliever such as Jhoan Durán.
Durán would almost certainly take over as the Phillies' closer immediately. The team has had somewhat of a revolving door at closer so far this season, with Jordan Romano, Matt Strahm, and José Alvarado all receiving at least 7 save opportunities. Strahm and Alvarado have both been solid, but there isn't much question that Durán would be the best reliever in that bullpen as soon as he stepped into it. The acquisition would help to solidify what is likely the weakest point of a strong Phillies team that, as I previously mentioned, has aspirations of winning it all this season.
Why the Reds say yes
The Reds may be the biggest wild card in this deal, as there isn't really any certainty that they'll sell as of now. In fact, they're probably in more of a position to buy than sell at this very moment, as they sit at 50-47 and are just 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, although they are currently in fourth place in the NL Central. However, dealing Lodolo doesn't have to be a part of a full-on fire sale. The Reds' starting rotation is deep, with a rotation that, when healthy, contains Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, Nick Martinez, Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty, and Lodolo as options. Lodolo is certainly one of the five most polished arms in that group, but it's a rotation ripe with talent and one that could absorb the loss while still remaining strong.
Looking at the prospects that they would get back, these guys are all at different levels of the minors, but none are extremely long-term projects. Crawford has spent the entirety of this season at Triple-A and seems like a reasonable candidate to be called up later this season. Chace made just six starts this season, all of which came at Double-A, before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which ended his season. He and DeMartini seem to be on the path of 2027 debuts, although that can obviously change.