5 free agents Twins will have to make a big decision on this offseason
The Minnesota Twins have a handful of players the team will have to make tough decisions on this offseason.
While the MLB playoffs are in full swing, the Minnesota Twins are at home trying to decide how to ensure the team is still playing this time next year.
That's easier said than done, especially when the expectation is that it will be another lean winter where the team doesn't add meaningfully to the roster. There are moves the Twins can make to improve things, but spending money to make it happens doesn't seem to be a route ownership wants to take.
Part of that means not adding free agents on the open market, but the other part involves making decisions on players who have expiring deals. The Twins have a handful of arbitration-eligible players they'll need to either tender or let walk, as well as some pending free agents who the team will have to make some tough calls on whether they stay or go.
5 free agents Twins will have to make a big decision on this offseason
Willi Castro, UT
In back-to-back years the Twins could end up paying a utility player more than they spend on anyone else. Last year the investment didn't work out, with Kyle Farmer failing to live up to the $6 million contract Minnesota gave him to settle arbitration.
An almost identical scenario is about to play out with Willi Castro.
Perhaps the biggest internal questions the team needs to answer this winter are whether to tender Castro and then what to pay him. The first answer seems obvious, as Castro was an All-Star this season and unexpectedly became one of the team's best and most important players.
Something similar happened with Michael A. Taylor last year, but the Twins ultimately decided to not meet his market value in free agency. The difference here is that Castro is headed to arbirtration and also has more upside than Taylor. He certainly provides more value than Farmer does, and it could be that another $6 million utility player is about to go on the books.
It seems obvious that the Twins should bring Castro back, but never underestimate how foolish a frugal franchise can be when trying to save a buck.
Max Kepler, OF
Had things gone differently for Max Kepler, he'd be the player Minnesota has the biggest decision to make on. Instead, after a middling year offensively that saw both the best and worst versions of Kepler, it seems his time with the Twins has come to an end.
Nothing is certain, though. Everyone has seemingly accepted that he's played his final game in a Twins uniform but until he signs elsewhere there's still a chance he comes back. The challenge here is how much Kepler might command as a free agent and where there's justifiable space on the depth chart for him.
He's not going to get more than the $20 million qualifying offer, but it's not outrageous to see a team like the Braves, Yankees, Blue Jays, or Mariners pay a little more than sticker price for him. Minnesota's excuse to not meet that price lies in what the future holds in the outfield.
If Kepler returns, he could compete with, or even hold back, rising prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, and potentially Walker Jenkins. There's also guys like Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Austin Martin, and Willi Castro who can help fill out a platoon in right.
There are fewer ways that Kepler stays than plays somewhere else next season, but he's a Minnesota lifer. Kepler has been in the Twins organization since 2009 and has spent in his native Germany and is the longest tenured member of the team. That's not an insigifincant factor here that could lead to him coming back on a team-friendly deal, but it's a decision that will be out of his hands.
Alex Kirilloff, 1B
Another player set for arbitration this year is Alex Kirilloff, but the prospects that he's back are far dimmer than Willi Castro's. Where one went to the All-Star Game this year, the other battled injuries and poor performance to box himself out of the picture.
Kirilloff was electric at the start of the season and was a triples machine, but that quickly fell off. More than his drop in production is his potentially negative standing in the clubhouse. After being demoted to Triple-A amid his offensive struggles, Kirilloff waited until that moment to reveal an injury that placed him on the IL instead.
Rocco Baldelli wasn't shy about how displeased he was with how things played out. That could be a major strike against Kirilloff, especially considering he didn't show much on the field to warrant the Twins bending over backward to keep him around.
What could ultimately work in his favor is how cheap the team might be able to settle arbitration. Minnesota also doesn't have a clear cut plan for first base, which also plays into his potential return. Kirilloff has almost no leverage, though, and it could be that he returns on a prove-it deal that hopefully works out for everyone.
Jorge Alcala, P
A surprise non-tender could be reliever Jorge Alcala. He's among the group of players who are up for arbitration this year and while he settled last year for less than $800k, he's estimated to be worth just shy of $2 million which is a little rich for Minnesota's blood.
The question is how badly did Alcala hurt his stock with how spectacularly he flamed out over the course of the team's meltdown. He was on the mound in Arlington when the Twins blew a lead against the Rangers that triggered the historic collapse, and while it's unfair to blame him for the mess that followed it's safe to say he didn't help make it better.
Alcala finished the year with a 3.24 ERA and 1.4 WAR, but he was brutal down the stretch. There was a stretch between early August and mid-September where he allowed seven homers in 14 appearances and was charged with 14 runs in 13 1/3 innings for a whopping 9.45 ERA.
The fact that he still finished with positive numbers is a testament to how solid he was earlier in the year, which is why the team might bring him back. His usage was a bit strange, though, and the fact that he was optioned to St. Paul for the final few games of the season over other pitchers who might have made more sense is also telling.
Carlos Santana, 1B
An annual tradition for the Twins is to sign a name-brand veteran who is past their prime but might still have something left in the tank. This season that was Carlos Santana, and while it took a bit for him to settle in he ended up being a key piece of the everyday lineup.
He was signed for his bat, but it was his glove that ended up providing the most value. There's a decent change he wins a Gold Glove for his work at first base, and he finished with perfectly average numbers at the plate.
This has all the markings of what happened with Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano last season. Both veterans were key contributors but neither was brought back this year thanks to a tight payroll. Santana was signed for just over $5 million with money that was freed up by salary dumping Jorge Polanco, and that price might be a little much for a team looking to keep things lean again this winter.
It makes sense for the Twins to bring him back, as he fills an obvious need at first base. Whether the team wants to pay him is another question, one that seems to have an answer rooted in how they might be able to move things around internally and save the money instead.
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