Minnesota Twins: After missing out on Correa, what comes next?

The Carlos Correa era in Minnesota is now officially over, with the megastar shortstop opting for a massive 13-year, $360 million contract instead of the 10-year, $285 million deal the Minnesota Twins offered him:

The deal makes sense for Correa. One of the best free agents available got one of the largest deals for any player ever and three more years of security. After playing at an impressive level all year long, he earned the deal. The Giants are now set. The Twins are not.

After failing to land Carlos Correa, where do the Minnesota Twins turn to next in free agency?

The Twins may have offered Correa more AAV money than anyone else, but after striking out on their main target, their offseason plan leaves a barrage of questions. What happens at short? How will they spend the money? Is a rebuild imminent? Unfortunately, there aren’t any clear answers.

Carlos Rodon and Dansby Swanson remain the two largest free agents left on the board, and while the Twins are in on both, deals with both remain unlikely. Rodon seems very uninterested in coming to Minnesota, and Swanson isn’t a large enough upgrade over Royce Lewis for the Twins to pay him the deal that he will be paid.

This leaves the Twins with three very different paths for the offseason, each with various goals and options for the offseason, so we’re going to break them down and the possibilities for each one.

Minnesota Twins Offseason Option No. 1: Go all-in and spend big on All-Stars

This first option is very unlikely, but it remains a possible one because of the available cash that the Minnesota Twins have. The team spent $158 million on payroll in 2022, but after a good chunk of cash was freed up, the team now has an estimated $107 million in money committed (including Christan Vázquez’s new $30 million deal).

That’s $51 million available to get back to 2022’s spending levels, and if the team were to trade Max Kepler ($8.5 million) and spend an extra $10 million (a reasonable jump), they’d have nearly seventy million to drop on the rest of the class.

With all this cash, the team could easily afford to dole out a 7 year, $210 million deal to Carlos Rodon (meeting his asking price), encouraging him to lose his trepidation and become the new ace. With $40 million remaining, they could also offer up a massive, 7 year, $175 million deal to Dansby Swanson, locking down their other major question mark at shortstop (with $15 million left over).

Even if the team only secures one of the two (a much more likely path), they still will have addressed a big need while continuing to show the fanbase that they are trying to win. We’ll say for the purposes of this that the team does make Rodon an offer he can’t refuse, setting up a rotation of Rodon, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda, one of the best groups in baseball.

On top of that, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Louie Varland would make this pen one of the deepest in the game too. The team would likely add another reliever (we’ll say Taylor Rogers), making pitching an overall strength that it wasn’t a year ago.

After failing to add a star shortstop, the team picks up Elvis Andrus as a stopgap until Lewis returns and in the deal for Kepler they pick up a right-handed outfielder. Securing all these major holes makes the team a major success, and the team runs away with the division title.

If the team were to add Swanson instead, they’d follow a similar path, but with the lineup and defense being the major strength (and Royce Lewis emerging as a do-it-all utility-man) while the still-solid rotation helps the team find similar success. Neither option is especially likely, but after the soul-crushing departure of Correa, a guy can dream.

Minnesota Twins Offseason Option No. 3: Let the young talent take the lead and start planning for 2024

When the offseason started, this wasn’t an option in anyone’s mind. The fans and baseball writers alike expected the Twins to be active in the free agent market, bring home a big fish, and compete again in 2023. Instead, this third (and pretty unlikely) option does the opposite.

In this scenario, the front office, realizing it has missed nearly all the top options, strikes out again on Rodon and Dansby while other options sign elsewhere. Realizing the roster is loaded with young potential, they dash the hopes for 2023 and began to tear down.

Max Kepler, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda are dealt to contenders, followed shortly by Jorge Polanco and Kyle Garlick. Christian Vázquez, Jose Miranda, Luis Arraez, Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, and Trevor Larnach are joined by lone holdover Byron Buxton in a lineup that patiently awaits Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, and Royce Lewis.

Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland and Cole Sands get the lion’s share of the starts while the team adds someone like Michael Wacha is added to eat innings. Caleb Thielbar is dealt, as the bullpen continues to add new pieces.

The team has enough young talent to look like a Wild Card team for a while before falling apart and bowing out of the playoff race. The Pohlads opt for a clean sweep, firing Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Rocco Baldelli, for someone who will actually spend money to aid a talented young roster for 2024.

Of course, it’s likely that we don’t see this option or the spending option, with a medium approach lulling fans to sleep. Either way, the franchise missed a golden opportunity this year, and whatever comes next will only feel like a consolation prize.