Minnesota Twins: With the season circling the drain, what comes next?

Well it was fun while it lasted. The Minnesota Twins have slumped to 69-70, two games behind the Chicago White Sox, and four and half games behind the Cleveland Guardians. With 24 games to go (including five against the Guardians), the Twins playoff chances have dropped from unlikely to near-miracle status. With the team likely done, there are a few ways to look at the season:

1. Glass Half-Full: There were a lot of positive takeaways. The Twins are four wins away from clearing their 2021 win total (they’ll clear far past it). They have developed some good pieces from the future (Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, and Jhoan Duran look like stars). After an abysmal 2021, the team looked like a contender for most of the season.
2. Glass Half-Empty: This team blew it. They led the division for most of the year, but they’ve collapsed epically and once-promising deadline additions look like trash. Fire Rocco, Falvine, and start jettisoning players.
3. Somewhere in the Middle: While they made strides and appear to have some good pieces, an upgrade over 2021 isn’t good enough. This team should have played better. While the sky isn’t falling, the team has its work cut out for them. This is where I am.

After an up-and-down 2022, the Minnesota Twins have some moves to make before a key 2023 season.

The team has flopped in the second half, and this means it’s time to clear up who will remain here and who will be the first to shown the door. This Minnesota Twins team, the most injured in baseball, has a lot of talent, but definitely needs to clean up the depth and the margins. Here are four things to look for as the season rolls to a close.

Minnesota Twins End of Season Checklist Item No. 1: Make it Clear to Everyone (Fans, Coaches, Front Office) that 2023 is Playoff Success or Bust.

I have long been a supporter of Rocco Baldelli and this front office. Both have lead this team to a lot of success in 2019 and 2020 while making some moves I’ve really liked, but it’s truly time to either put up results or be ousted.

Paul Molitor poorly managed his squad in 2018 and deserved to be let go, and while Rocco has earned two division titles, and has been one of the winningest managers in team history, he’s had a really tough year in 2022.

His front office hasn’t provided him with a great staff, but his lineup micromanagement hasn’t resulted in wins and his bullpen usage hasn’t resulted in the same success the Rays have had. He’s now been manager for four years, and without a playoff win to his name, 2023 needs to be the make or break season for Baldelli.

It’s the same for the front office. Derek Falvine and Thad Levine have done a very solid job of developing some good offensive talent, but they were hired to develop pitching and thus far we haven’t really seen it Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland are the best starters they’ve produced, and none of them are even No. 3 starters at this point. That’s not enough.

They’ve made a few good moves like signing Carlos Correa and trading for Kenta Maeda, but most of their free agency moves and trade deadline moves have been either mediocre or downright disasters. Both the front office and manager will get a break with the injury issues, but this is the last break they should get.

Ownership needs to make it clear ahead of the offseason that 2023 is it. If the Twins don’t win at least a playoff series and look like a real contender, both Falvine and Rocco need to go. With so many pieces, something needs to happen.

I understand it’s hard to sign big name free agents, but after adding Josh Donaldson and Correa, they’ve proved they can. Their seats should be scorching next year, and it they don’t win come playoff time, it’s time to clean house.

Minnesota Twins End of Season Checklist Item No. 2: Start cleaning out the trash on the Roster.

If the team is going to make some noise next season, they have a lot to do as the season winds down. The Twins have a very solid base roster for 2023, but that doesn’t mean there’s a lot that’s got to go.

The rotation will be lead by a healthy quartet of Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Joe Ryan. Those are two high-end No. 2 starters (Mahle and Gray), a very good No. 3 (Maeda), and a good No. 4 (Ryan). They’re followed up by Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Josh Winder, and eventually Chris Paddack.

That’s great depth, and despite not having a true ace, that’s a rotation that could get you to at least 90 wins next year. If you add an ace like Carlos Rodon, that’s an untouchable staff, but first, you need to clear out some junk.

Aaron Sanchez, Dylan Bundy, Devin Smeltzer, and Chris Archer will all need to be released or DFA’d as soon as possible. While Bundy, Smeltzer, and Archer have been decent in stretches, no team that’s in contention should see these players pitch as much as they have or even be on the roster. They have to go.

In the bullpen, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar are three high-quality arms that need to be built around. Jorge Lopez and Jorge Alcala will be back, so hopefully both look good to go next season. That’s five relievers, and assuming two of Ober, Varland, and Winder are your long relievers, there’s not a lot of room left for others.

Jovani Moran and Cole Sands have looked good in stints, so before any other additions, that clears up who needs to be gone by next season. Danny Coulombe, Cody Stashak, Austin Davis, Trevor Megill, and most importantly Emilio Pagan gave to go.

Megill looked good in spurts, but the Twins can upgrade. He’s not a good reliever. Austin Davis should never have been in a Twins uniform anyway. I like both Coulombe and Stashak, but both can’t stay healthy or produce consistently. If they can find a way to remain in AAA, that would be ideal. That leaves Pagan.

I’ve already talked ad nauseum about Pagan, but he clearly has to be gone from this team. He has great stuff, but if he can’t locate it, it’s not worth it to continually forcing the issue. He should be designated for assignment the second the season ends. That would clear up the arms after this season ends.

Minnesota Twins End of Season Checklist Item No. 3: Make the Tough Decisions on the Bats

On offense, there’s a clear distinction who stays and goes. Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis form a monstrous lineup when everyone is healthy. Ryan Jeffers, Nick Gordon, Kyle Garlick, and Max Kepler, make a very strong bench. Matt Wallner will be added to that group next year (more on him later). But what about the rest?

Billy Hamilton, Sandy Leon, and Caleb Hamilton will all be gone very quickly, with Hamilton possibly remaining as organizational depth. Jake Cave, like him or not deserves to return on an MiLB deal, but shouldn’t be on the MLB roster. Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, and Gilberto Celestino should be back in AAA, but are decent organizational depth.

Miguel Sano and Gary Sanchez should also be out the door, which leaves Gio Urshela and Carlos Correa as the only uncertainties. Everyone should want Correa back, as his torrid September has made him indispensable. If he opts to leave, the Twins will have 35+ million to spend on a shortstop and pitching upgrades. Either way, the Twins are in a good spot.

Gio Urshela is a bigger question. Urshela is under contract for 2023, and trading him wouldn’t net a large return, but the Twins can only carry thirteen fielders. Here’s my current roster prediction for 2023:

Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, (FA Addition-Omar Narvaez)

Infielders (6): Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa (or FA Addition), Nick Gordon, Jose Miranda, Alex Kirilloff

Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, Kyle Garlick, Matt Wallner

That doesn’t leave a spot for Gio Urshela. The Twins need more outfielders, as the group is injury prone. The infield will likely get Royce Lewis back during mid-May, and that means Urshela’s playing time is even thinner. It makes the most sense to try and move him, especially with several prospects who could come up with more versatility and potential. Speaking of potential…