Minnesota Twins: 3 Potential Trade Ideas for the Reds’ Tyler Mahle

The Minnesota Twins are looking more and more like a playoff team, thanks in large part to a weak division and a soft schedule in the month of May. The lineup has kept going through injuries, and the bullpen and rotation have also moved through challenges.

Now that the team is getting healthier, it’s time to consider some early season trade options for some of the team’s biggest needs, namely, starting pitching. As good as Joe Ryan has been, Bailey Ober and Sonny Gray have been injured, Chris Paddack is likely done for the year, and Dylan Bundy, Josh Winder, and Chris Archer have been up and down. The team needs a starter.

When looking for a trade partner, we have to look at teams that have committed to tanking and have strong pitching available, so why not reach back out to the team that they’ve already made a deal with this year: the Cincinnati Reds. While they can’t afford Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle is a good option for the Twins to go after.

What could a potential Tyler Mahle trade look like for the Minnesota Twins?

At first glance, Mahle is a confusing trade target. Mahle currently has a 2-4 record, a 5.89 ERA, and a 1.473 WHIP. Why would the Twins want to add a guy like that? Well, there are multiple reasons.

For starters, Mahle is a very reliable pitcher. He leads all of baseball in starts made over the past two years with 41, and he’s pitched 216.2 innings over that span (5.1 IP per start). The Twins’ young rotation could use that stability, and he has the rest of 2022 and 2023 under team control.

His underlying numbers suggest he’s due for a positive regression. He currently boasts a 3.45 FIP, a 9.8 K/9 rate, and his fastball is still moving well. In addition, he’s been very, very good over the last two years:

• 43 G (42 GS), 15-8 W-L, 3.72 ERA (3.82 FIP), 270-85 K-BB, 1.217 WHIP

Now the Twins have a really good clubhouse environment, and they’ve been trying to continue building their team with that in mind, but if they see Mahle as good fit, a deal could get done. Here are three trades the Twins could try and make.

Minnesota Twins Tyler Mahle Trade Package No. 1: RHP Tyler Mahle for prospects RHP Brayan Medina, RHP Ronny Henriquez, and SS Keoni Cavaco

To land Tyler Mahle, the Twins probably aren’t going to give up Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Josh Winder or any prospects that are close to the majors, and the Reds probably aren’t going to land a top prospect unless Mahle turns things around.

In the meantime, the Twins could send a pair or a package of prospects to try and land Mahle. In order to get Sonny Gray, it took Chase Petty, and the Twins got a relief prospect to boot. For this deal, the Twins send over some upside to make a deal work.

Medina is currently the Minnesota Twins’ No. 13 prospect on MLB. com. He’s got some control issues, but he has the stuff needed to become a starter, with three potentially strong pitches. He’s only in the Dominican Summer League right now, but he’s the high upside arm a starter is looking for.

Henriquez on the other hand is a Triple-A arm, one with excellent velocity and should be ready to make it to the MLB by the end of 2023. There are some concerns about Henriquez’s ability to remain a starter, but the Reds don’t have a ton of arms that are near the MLB level.

For the last part of the deal, the Twins add in Keoni Cavaco, their first round pick from 2019. Cavaco still has a lot of potentially productive tools, but he’s produced a career slash line of .211/.265/.291 over his first three years. He could use a fresh start, and the Reds would add a 20-year-old who still has some upside. This is a clear win for both sides.

Minnesota Twins Tyler Mahle Trade Package No. 2: RHP Tyler Mahle and LHP Justin Wilson for RHP Dylan Bundy and prospects SS/OF Austin Martin and RHP Casey Legumina

Once the Twins add Mahle, that will bring them up to seven starters: Ryan, Ober, Gray, Bundy, Archer, Winder, and Mahle. In this deal, the Twins move one of those guys plus a top prospect in order to make the deal work.

For starters, this is the only deal where the Twins acquire an extra piece, adding on left-handed reliever Justin Wilson. Wilson was one of the better relievers in baseball from 2015-2020, but an off year in 2021 lead him to sign with the Reds. In 2022 though, he pitched extremely well before an elbow injury shut him down last month.

Adding a potentially very good lefty reliever in addition to Mahle costs the Twins Bundy, who has been overall solid, but is the clear worst starter of the group (and would eat innings for the Reds), the Twins’ No. 29 prospect in Casey Legumina, and their No. 2 prospect in Austin Martin.

Martin draws a lot of walks and does a good job of getting on base, limits strikeouts, and has great speed. He also has struggled with a lack of power, hitting for high average, and finding a true defensive home (because it probably isn’t shortstop).

He’s still got tremendous upside, but he’s 23, and the Minnesota Twins are stacked at the positions he can play (2B/CF) because of his limited arm. This gives the Reds one of the top prospects they’d be able to land for Mahle.