Minnesota Twins: Predicting Season Stats of the Opening Day Lineup
After a seemingly never-ending lockout, many fans feared the Minnesota Twins were heading for a full rebuild. But the acquisitions of Sonny Gray, Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela, along with the massive free agent signing superstar Carlos Correa, means the Twins are ready to fight their way to the top of the American League Central again.
The lineup looks as strong as ever, so I wanted to pause for a second to predict the production of every Minnesota Twins Opening Day Starter projected by FanGraphs. In this article, we’ll be looking at past performances and projections to determine the triple slash of all starters expected for Opening Day, starting with catcher and fist base.
Catcher
Gary Sanchez will be splitting time with the defensive-centered Ryan Jeffers, but Sanchez is currently slotted in on Fangraphs as the Opening Day starter. He arrived in Minnesota along with Gio Urshela (more on him later) in exchange for newly-acquired Isiah Kiner-Falefa and dumping Josh Donaldson’s contract.
With Mitch Garver gone, Sanchez takes the role as the masher behind the dish. The last two seasons have not been kind to Gary Sanchez. After smashing 34 home runs in only 106 games in 2019, the former Yankee’s numbers slipped, slashing a lowly .187/.291/.406 over the past two seasons.
But there’s a lot to like about Sanchez. Despite the rough 2021, he still hit around league average (99 OPS+). He continues to hammer the ball (89th percentile in max exit velocity and 86th percentile in barrel percentage) while finding his way on base plenty (85th percentile in walk rate), according to Baseball Savant.
As for his offensive output in 2022, Twins fans can expect numbers similar to Miguel Sano: lots of home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Focusing on hitting by being the DH frequently and being removed from the hostile crowds of Yankee Stadium should result in an uptick in numbers.
Prediction: .240/.331/.514
First Base
Speaking of Miguel Sano, the hulking power hitter looks to improve on his up-and-down 2021 season. Looking at Sano’s Baseball Savant page reveals a rollercoaster of a hitter. He’s elite in exit velocity and barrel percentage, while dismal in all contact categories.
The Twins are hoping Sano can recreate his 2019 campaign of 34 home runs and a .923 OPS. The last two years, his power numbers have slipped while his strikeout numbers remain gaudy. He struck out almost half the time in 2020 while leading MLB with 90 K’s in only 53 games.
A repeat of 2021 seems more likely than the juiced-ball highs of 2019. The Twins will deal with his strikeouts and defense in exchange for another 30 homer season and plenty of walks.
Prediction: .220/.310/.476
Second Base
In a year in which it seemed like all the Minnesota Twins regressed, Jorge Polanco had a career year. He set personal bests in slugging (.503) and home runs (33). Thankfully, Platinum Glove winner Carlos Correa will take over the burden of playing shortstop for Polanco, who will stay at his true position of second base.
Polanco played poorly in the shortened 2020 season, but his track record since 2019 gives plenty of confidence he’ll continue to rake. There’s no reason Polanco can’t have an OPS north of .800 and more than 20 home runs.
It helps that he’s been healthy. Polanco hasn’t missed more than 10 games per season since 2018. Projections on Baseball Reference and FanGraphs predict a regression, but he’s still in his prime entering his age-28 season, and a low BABIP (.282) suggests he can improve his numbers.
Prediction: .290/.350/.511
Third Base
The other piece in the Donaldson trade, Gio Urshela, is ready to make a new home in Minnesota. Make no mistake; Urshela is not as good as Donaldson. But he is younger and cheaper, and he’ll be able to hold his own towards the bottom of the lineup.
It isn’t unreasonable to think that Urshela can be one of the most productive hitters on the Twins. From 2019-2020, Urshela raked, slashing 310/.359/.523 for an .881 OPS. His numbers slipped drastically in 2021, hitting slightly below league average with a .720 OPS.
I don’t think Urshela is as as good as his 2019-2020 numbers, but he’s certainly capable of improving on 2021. Urshela’s best quality is his contact ability, so expect a high average with lots of doubles.
Prediction: .271/.318/.453
Shortstop
Here he is: the man no one saw coming. No more place holders at shortstop. The Minnesota Twins handed out a record-breaking contract to pick up superstar Carlos Correa.
Finishing fifth in MVP voting last season, Correa has been a stud ever since being drafted first overall by the Houston Astros. 2021 was his most complete season to date. He racked up 7.2 bWAR by playing platinum glove defense and smashing 26 homers with a 131 OPS+.
The thing with Correa (like another superstar on this list) is health. Only twice has he played for an entire season, but he always performs well when he’s on the field. It’s a guarantee he’ll play great defense and likely he’ll post an OPS north of .800.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Correa had another great year, opted out, and left for even more money. It would be worth it, seeing what Correa can do in Minnesota.
Prediction: .276/.355/.491
Designated Hitter
Right now, FanGraphs lists Luis Arraez as the DH. In 2021, he was more of a super utility player, and he’ll likely take on that role again this year. Arraez proved that his Rod Carew-like high contact approach was sustainable over 121 games last season.
Arraez might as well be Sano’s polar opposite. He lacks any sort of power, but makes up for it with high batting averages and never striking out. He’s a perfect player to mix in with the high power bats that make up most of the Minnesota Twins lineup.
Expect Arraez to consistently coax singles into gaps and just be a general pest to opposing pitchers. It’s doubtful that he’ll be winning a batting title, but a third .300 season seems possible.
Prediction: .301/.366/.384
Left Field
Alex Kirilloff has been a top 10 Twins Prospect since 2017, according to MLB.com. It’s no wonder, as the first round pick hit well at every level in the minor leagues. In his rookie 2021 season, Kirilloff showed the makings of a solid outfielder. In 231 plate appearances, the 23-year-old hit about league average (98 OPS+), showcasing decent pop with 8 home runs despite injuries.
What makes Kirilloff so exciting is that there’s so much room for growth after a promising rookie campaign. He hit the ball on the ground far too often, 48.8% of the time. However, he hit the ball hard 43.9% of the time. Fixing his launch angle to hit the ball in the air more will make Kirilloff one of the most potent bats in the lineup.
His biggest issue, however, may be his plate discipline. He walked only 6.1% of the time in 2021, but his ability to put the ball in play (22.5% strikeout percentage) gives confidence that he’ll make contact enough to counteract that. Baseball Reference projects him for an OPS around .738, but FanGraphs likes him at .775. I’m more inclined to agree with the latter.
Prediction: .260/.315/.462
Center Field
Fresh contract in hand, the Minnesota Twins hope Byron Buxton can finally stay healthy for an entire season. The only time he played more than 100 games (2017), he finished 18th in MVP voting. That was back when Buxton couldn’t even hit. Now he’s a completely different player.
Since 2019, Buxton has slashed .277/.321/.576 for a 137 OPS+. The former defensive-wizard speed-threat has become a masher. In 2021, Buxton was incredible. He hit over .300, had an OPS at 1.005, and had 10 DRS. Unfortunately, he played in just 60 games. If he had continued that pace over a 162 season, he would have had a WAR well over 10 and won the MVP unanimously.
It’s unlikely that Buxton would have continued that monstrous production over an entire season, so his 2019-2020 performances are closer to what we can expect. Minnesota Twins fans will take anything, as long as he remains on the field.
Prediction: .259/..301/.541
Right Field
In the juiced ball year of 2019, Max Kepler looked like a star in the making. The German hit 36 bombs that year with a .855 OPS. Since then, Kepler’s number have slipped. He’s struggled with a dip in power and very low batting averages. But Kepler’s defense (95th percentile in OAA in 2021) make him worth playing everyday.
The thing with Kepler at the plate is that he doesn’t do anything badly, but he also isn’t elite in any category. He’s above average in every category ranging from exit velocity to barrel percentage to strikeout percentage.
That being said, Kepler fought a excruciatingly low BABIP last season (.225), so there’s hope for a bounce-back. He’ll spend time towards the bottom of the order, and he’ll be able to drive in runs.
Prediction: .230/.311/.435
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