Minnesota Twins: Re-Ranking the 5 Twins with the Best Shot at the HOF

In May of 2020, we ranked the Minnesota Twins with the best chances at the Hall of Fame while we were waiting for the season to start. Now, two of those players are into the Hall and we’re waiting for a lockout to end, so it’s time to revisit who has the best odds.

As excited as we were to see Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat make the Hall, those were two of our Top 3 most likely candidates, so it’s time to introduce a few players currently in possible committee consideration as well as youthful Twins with some real potential.

Who are the Minnesota Twins with the best shot to make the Hall of Fame?

Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew, Bert Blyleven, Kirby Puckett, and now Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat as players wearing Minnesota Twins caps. Dave Winfield, Jack Morris, Steve Carlton, Paul Molitor, and Jim Thome are all in wearing other hats. Who will join them?

Before we get started, one small caveat: David Ortiz is a likely Hall of Famer, but we’re not including him here because he’s clearly going in as a Red Sox player and we’re focusing on Twins. Let’s get going with the honorable mentions.

Hall of Fame Honorable Mentions:

Johan Santana: A seven year peak with two Cy Young awards should have been enough to get Johan Santana consideration beyond 2.4% of a Hall of Fame vote. It’s extremely unlikely, but if Santana lands on a committee ballot, there’s a possibility he could fight his way in (like Gil Hodges did). Chances: 0.5%

Tom Kelly: The Twins former manager holds a special place in Twins’ hearts because he won two World Series titles. That makes his case to the Modern Baseball Committee. Just 23 managers have more than one World Series title, and 14 of them are in the Hall. Could Kelly’s case as the best manager in team history push him through the Veterans Committee? Chances: 0.5%

Minnesota Twins No. 5 Hall of Fame Candidate: Justin Morneau

With Oliva and Kaat in the Hall, the number of former Twins with real chances to make the Hall of Fame slim down dramatically. Kelly and Santana are the pair with the best chance at making it through committee, so we turn our heads to people who are still on the ballot or will be soon.

This list begins with Justin Morneau, the former MVP who is extremely overlooked despite a case for Hall consideration. At Puckett’s Pond, we’ve gone over Morneau’s case already, so we’ll just recap it here.

An MVP, a Batting Champion, a four-time All-Star, and two-time Silver Slugger award winner suggests that he’s at least got an argument. Unfortunately for him, the injuries took their toll, and he wasn’t able to put up elite career numbers outside of his peak. That keeps his chances fairly slim. Chances: 1%

Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton hits a single against the Kansas City Royals. (Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)

Minnesota Twins No. 4 Hall of Fame Candidate: Byron Buxton

What? Byron Buxton? The center fielder who has played less than 500 games over seven years? The career .248 hitter with just a Golden Glove to his name? How could Buxton have a chance? Well, let’s break it down a little bit.

For starters, Buck has already put together a 16.2 WAR by the age of 28. His defense is the best in baseball, and there’s no reason that wouldn’t continue throughout the rest of his career. Then there’s the offense.

Buxton struggled through the first four seasons of his career on offense, but it’s clear he’s finally figured it out over the last three, with his 2021 looking like potential for an incredible future. If Buxton can stay healthy, the Twins just may have another Hall of Famer on their hands.

Yes, with his injury history, it’s not likely, but if he can stay healthy and perform at those numbers, he has the skill set to succeed. Other players have followed this path (David Ortiz and Randy Johnson to name a couple) have taken a late bloomer approach to making the Hall of Fame. If he can have a consistent peak and age gracefully, don’t be surprised if he builds a case. Chances: 1%

Minnesota Twins No. 3 Hall of Fame Candidate: Joe Nathan

Now, let’s get to a candidates with a realistic shot at the Hall of Fame. No. 5 on the list the last time around, Joe Nathan has a pretty accomplished profile for a closer. Nathan is a six-time All-Star that wrapped his career with a 2.87 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, and 976-344 K-BB ratio. That doesn’t even get into his saves.

Nathan finished his career with 377 saves, an incredible number that land him eighth all-time. Those are excellent numbers for a player who only was a full-time closer for nine seasons. Of the seven players ahead of him on the saves list, four are in the Hall, one is up to 46.4% on the Ballot, and one isn’t eligible yet.

Nathan doesn’t have a World Series on his resume, but he had a strong enough career to put him on this list and earn a more serious look at the Hall. He shouldn’t get in his first try, but once Billy Wagner gets in, Nathan should get his phone call.

Minnesota Twins No. 1 Hall of Fame Candidate: Joe Mauer

Well this one was obvious. Just a year after Joe Mauer retired, his number was retired by the Minnesota Twins and for good reason. The 2009 MVP was a three-time batting champ, three-time Gold Glover, five-time Silver Slugger and six-time All-Star.

He ‘s a career .306 hitter with a .388 on-base percentage, 143 homers, and 923 runs batted in. His 939-1,034 BB-K ratio is outstanding for a player this century. He has 2,123 hits and a 124 OPS+. To top all that off he spent most of his career as a catcher, which makes all his stats even more impressive.

There are just nineteen catchers in the Hall of Fame, and his JAWS numbers rank him seventh all-time among catchers behind Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Ivan Rodriguez, Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, and Yogi Berra. All seven are in the hall already.

The only question that’s left is whether the voters will count him as a catcher, where he played almost all of his career and if his loyalty to the Twins (that cost him a title) matters too much. He won’t make it first ballot, but there isn’t a good argument for him to not make it to Cooperstown. Chances: 70%