Minnesota Twins: Offseason Blueprint to Move Back into Contention
Minnesota Twins Step No. 1: Move on from Several Players that have to Go
The Minnesota Twins had an absolutely dreadful offseason last year, with just about every signing ending up as a tremendous bust. Luckily for the team, most of these guys were already moved at the deadline or sooner (See ya never, Matt Shoemaker, J.A. Happ, and Hansel Robles).
There are a couple still on the roster, and there time should be limited here too. Andrelton Simmons put together the worst season by a Twins shortstop since Danny Santana in 2015 and despite a lack of a succession plan will be gone sooner rather than later.
In the outfield, Kyle Garlick, Tzu-Wei Lin, and Rob Refsnyder should all be cleared out rather quickly. Brent Rooker probably gets one more year, but Jake Cave should finally get the boot he deserves as well. Nick Gordon and Max Kepler are capable enough that they can play center field, and with Gilberto Celestino just about done in Triple-AAA, Cave shouldn’t be on next year’s roster if they want to compete.
Willians Astudillo is also likely done here. Some people will be sad to see him go, but his limited versatility (primarily only a first and third baseman) combined with continually declining numbers mean that it’s time to move on from the aptly-nicknamed Turtle.
On the pitching side, Kyle Barraclough, Nick Vincent, Andrew Albers, and a few more minor-league pitchers will be released. There will be some more movement in the bullpen, but we’ll get to that later. There’s only one really tough call the Twins have to make: Alex Colomé.
Colomé started off the season as one of the worst pitchers in baseball history, but he rebounded to post a solid 4.15 ERA (4.23 FIP). His strikeout numbers didn’t change much and his walk numbers actually improved, so there is an argument to bring him back.
With that being said though, the Twins could save $4.25 million by buying him out a year early. There are several more pressing needs elsewhere and because cash at a premium, the Twins should cut their losses. The bullpen is surprisingly stable, so losing Colomé won’t hurt too much.
The last player to look at moving here is Josh Donaldson. Donaldson was productive in 2021, posting an .827 OPS and 26 homers, but he certainly wasn’t worth $22 million. Unfortunately, trading him won’t bring back much value and the Twins would still have to pay a huge chunk of his salary. It doesn’t make sense to trade him just yet.
Minnesota Twins Step No. 2: Extend a Couple Key Contributors
With several players out of the way and a clearer picture of the team’s needs, the Minnesota Twins can move to re-sign several key contributors from the 2021 season that are either free agents or nearing free agency.
The first name is a rather obvious one. Giving Byron Buxton a new deal should be priority number one in the offseason. Despite injuries, Buxton provides more value when he plays than any Twins player since Joe Mauer, and with his defense and power, it might even be more so over a full season.
Over the past three seasons, Buck’s value has been proven time and time again, and when he’s in the lineup, the Twins are significantly better than without him. To trade him away or let him walk in free agency would be a disaster that would set the team back years. If he’s asking for anything under $20 million per year (even before incentives), he’s earned it.
In free agency, Michael Pineda is the Twins’ only pending free agent who should be brought back. For a team in desperate need of starting pitching, bringing back the 32-year-old who is one of the Twins’ longest tenured players is just a smart move.
He’s remarkably consistent, stays fairly healthy, and wouldn’t cost much more than the $9.33 million AAV that the Twins have paid him over the past two years. Offering him a new, 2 year, $20 million dollar deal would mean the Twins wouldn’t be giving up too much and they’d have a very solid back of the rotation (Pineda, Ryan, Ober) while not sacrificing future space for future studs.
The last thing that the Twins should work on is extensions for Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey. Both pitchers are entering their final years of arbitration, and while neither are closers, both are regarded as two of the best setup men in the league. If the Twins want to contend in 2022 and beyond, extending both would be a solid move for security.
Minnesota Twins Step No. 3: Call Up Jose Miranda and Possibly Others
Now that we’ve cleared some roster junk away and made our plans a little clearer, it’s time that we look at players we could move to the major league level. With the new CBA possibly offering changes to service time, there’s a potential for players to be called up earlier.
The first player to be called up should be Jose Miranda. Miranda has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues and with what plenty of time in Spring Training coming his way, Miranda will have the shot to be a key contributor in 2022.
Miranda best fits at third base, with Polanco at second base and a new signee at short, which asks the question: where does Josh Donaldson go? Designated hitter. Keeping Donaldson allows the Twins to rotate Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Donaldson, Sano, and Kirilloff through the infield and designated hitter roles.
Now you might be saying in your head: “Why not trade Donaldson and let Miranda play full time with Arraez spelling him?” This is a good idea in theory, but Twins fans need to be realistic about depth. The Twins thought they had enough outfield depth last year to trade LaMonte Wade Jr. and release Eddie Rosario. How’d that work out?
What if Miranda isn’t quite ready? What if the injury bug bites again for Sano, Kirilloff, Arraez, or even Donaldson? Simply put, there will be more than enough at-bats for the seven infielders and Nick Gordon can help out as needed. Calling Miranda up allows the Twins to focus on pitching and a new shortstop while making this infield as deep as it can be.
Trevor Larnach also needs to get the call. Behind Starling Marte, Kris Bryant, and Nick Castellanos, there isn’t a lot of talent in the corner outfielder market and the Twins aren’t likely to spend there with so many needs elsewhere. Despite a trying season, he needs to be given another spot as the guy in left, with Rooker and/or Cave backing him up.
On the pitching side, Jovani Moran should be kept in the majors despite a slow start to his major league debut, but with the starting pitching prospects not ready for Opening Day (let’s see how Spring Training goes), there isn’t anyone else the Twins must bring up.
Minnesota Twins Step No. 4: Hitters to Sign
We’ll make this one quicker because the Twins really don’t have that many positions in the field they need to address. Provided Buxton is re-signed and Larnach is recalled, the outfield is set with Buxton, Kepler, and Larnach being backed up by Brent Rooker, Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, and Jake Cave.
The infield is also mostly set in stone. If the Twins don’t trade away their key players, a lineup consisting of a combination of Garver, Jeffers, Sano, Kirilloff, Polanco, Arraez, Donaldson, and Miranda will mash. The only issue is the group needs a shortstop.
As we already mentioned, Simmons was a disaster and will be gone. The question for the Twins isn’t an easy one: sign a one-year stopgap to hold the position for Royce Lewis/Austin Martin or sign a big name to a big deal. I’m a strong supporter of the second option.
There’s no guarantee that Lewis OR Martin can stay at shortstop long term. Defensive questions have been raised about both players sticking at the position and they have offensive question marks as well. If you add an elite shortstop, you’re setting yourself up for more surefire success.
If Lewis and/or Martin become the players we thought they could be, then we have a star shortstop and two other great talents. The Twins could easily drop about $45 million on Buxton and a shortstop and have one of baseball’s best lineups and still spend $50 million on pitching.
They’d be roughly at a payroll of $150 million at that point, $30 million more than now. That’s not a huge jump considering the fact that the Pohlads have shown a willingness to spend if contending (ranked 10th, 9th, 11th in Payroll from 2010-2012). It would also put the Twins in the 9th-12th range league-wide, which is a doable number.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, who to add? Carlos Correa is at the top of the market, and despite reported interest, he’s likely going to fetch upwards of $30 million a year. Instead, Marcus Semien has earned himself a $20 million payday and seems to be a shade behind Correa, Corey Seager, and Trevor Story. Bringing him in after interest last year would solidify the offense and make this lineup a true threat.
Minnesota Twins Step No. 5: Bring in Two New Starters
Anyone with eyes knows that the Minnesota Twins need pitching after a disastrous 2021 experience. Signing J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker was an epic failure and Kenta Maeda’s injury means the team will need three starters to join Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in a beleaguered rotation. We’ve already added Pineda back, so that means two more spots to fill.
To start, lets clear out the guys who won’t be in Minnesota in 2021. Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, and Robbie Ray will command a boatload, making them unlikely. Marcus Stroman and Clayton Kershaw don’t want to leave their current situations. Carlos Rodon will rejoin the White Sox. This thins out the crop.
Guys like Anthony DeSclafini, Steven Matz, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, and Zack Greinke are all available, so the Twins should add two of them on short term deals until the top prospects are ready. The starting pitching market isn’t as deep as it will be in 2023, so the Twins should hold off on handing out long term deals to this class, especially with their pitching prospect depth.
The Minnesota Twins are confident that a few more of their pitching prospects at the top of the system will turn into rotation arms, meaning it’s more than likely we won’t be seeing superstars added to the rotation. With that said, DeSclafini and Matz would form a rock solid rotation for 2022.
What does this new look Minnesota Twins roster look like?
Well, with all of the moves that we’ve made, here’s what our way-to-early new 26-man roster looks like:
Batters (14 Players)
- C: Mitch Garver
- 1B: Miguel Sano
- 2B: Jorge Polanco
- SS: Marcus Semien (3 years, $75 Million)
- 3B: Jose Miranda
- LF: Trevor Larnach
- CF: Byron Buxton
- RF: Max Kepler
- DH: Josh Donaldson
- Bench: Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, and Jake Cave (or Brent Rooker)
Pitchers (12 Players)
- SP Anthony DeSclafini (2 years, $30 million)
- SP Steven Matz (1 years, $15 million)
- SP Michael Pineda (2 years, $25 million)
- SP Bailey Ober
- SP Joe Ryan
- RP Tyler Duffey
- RP Jon Gant
- RP Jorge Alcala
- RP Caleb Thielbar
- RP Cody Stashak
- RP Jovani Moran
- CP Taylor Rogers
Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, Danny Coulombe, Juan Minaya, and more could make the bullpen mix a little murkier, but this lineup can carry any team, especially one with a solid rotation that offers a lot of flexibility for the future. We’ll see how everything plays out for real this winter.
Next. Minnesota Twins: My 2021 season-ending emotions. dark