Minnesota Twins: Grading the Twins’ First 5 Picks the 2021 MLB Draft
Minnesota Twins Draft Choice No. 1: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS (NJ)
Round/Pick: Round 1, Pick No. 26
MLB.com Pre-Draft Prospect Rankings: No. 27
Pros: High Upside, Triple-Digit Fastball, Wipeout Slider
Cons: Size and Durability Concerns, Low Floor
With the Twins sitting late in the first round, the team decided to pick a player with some of the best ability of any pitcher in the class in Chase Petty. Petty has a dominant fastball that has touched triple digits multiple times and is seen as one of the best offerings from any high school player.
He also offers a very good slider and while his changeup still needs work, it’s touched 90 MPH. He’s fearless on the mound, and while he goes after hitters well, there do appear to be a few concerns.
His throwing motion causes a little effort, and at only 6’2″, 190 LB, he has a small frame for a pitcher. This, coupled with the lack of a fourth pitch (or strong changeup), raises questions as to whether he will be a starter or a reliever, especially considering he’s only 18.
There are usually concerns about sign-ability with high schoolers, but Petty seems excited to be here and should sign shortly. If he can strengthen his changeup and adjust his motion slightly, this is an A+ pick. If he can’t, he could end up as a bust. Because of that uncertainty, this grade drops slightly. Grade: B.
Minnesota Twins Draft Choice No. 2: Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee HS (WI)
Round/Pick: Compensation Round A, Pick No. 36
MLB.com Pre-Draft Prospect Rankings: No. 62
Pros: Strong Defender, High Contact Switch-Hitter, No Major Holes
Cons: Lack of Elite Skills
After going after a high end player in the first round, the Minnesota Twins opted for a safer choice just 10 picks later in Noah Miller. The brother Owen Miller, the No. 16 prospect in the Cleveland system, the two share similar hitting abilities, but not much else.
Noah is six years younger, and already seems to have better offensive and defensive skills. He’s a very solid hitter from both sides of the plate, and while his power is probably his biggest issue, he still has the potential to be a 15-20 homer type guy if developed properly.
He isn’t the fastest shortstop prospect, but his speed is solid, his arm is good, and his baseball instincts are excellent. If he moved to second, he might have elite defensive potential. He reminds me A LOT of Jorge Polanco.
The only issue with Miller is there isn’t really a lot of A+ skill. His hitting is his most attractive ability, and everything else is good, but nothing really stands out. For a Twins system that needs flashy, that’s not perfect, but given who was available, this is a really solid pick. Grade: B+
Minnesota Twins Draft Choice No. 3: Steve Hajjar, LHP, Michigan
Round/Pick: Round 2, Pick 61
MLB.com Pre-Draft Prospect Rankings: No. 100
Pros: Great Changeup, Good Mix, Projectable Frame
Cons: Inconsistent Fastball
Our first college athlete! The Twins’ picked left-hander Steve Hajjar out of Michigan with the 61st pick of the draft, and he will immediately slot in as the top left-handed prospect in the entire system, which says an equal amount about him as it does the quality of the pitching in the Twins’ system.
Hajjar was very good at Michigan, getting better in year two and using his changeup to mow down batters, leading the Big Ten in strikeouts. He improved his control in year two, but the big issuer with him has been his fastball.
Hajjar’s fastball has touched mid-90s before, and when he has that going for him, he’s really good, but when it sits in the upper 80’s to low 90’s, he’s just not the same pitcher. The Twins believer they can fix that, as Hajjar is only 20 years old and his 6’5″ frame still has some projectability left in it.
You could nitpick about how Joe Rock may have been the better choice at this pick, but the Twins needed to add as much talent as possible and it comes at a position of need. I don’t expect him to race through the system, but with a high floor and a good pitch mix, I think we’ll see him in the majors before anyone else in this draft. Grade: A-.
Minnesota Twins Draft Choice No. 4: Cade Povich, LHP, Nebraska
Round/Pick: Round 3, Pick 98
MLB.com Pre-Draft Prospect Rankings: NR
Pros: Solid Control, Four Pitch Mix
Cons: Average Stuff, Limited Experience
Of the five picks we’ll talk about here, Cade Povich was the biggest surprise. Unranked in MLB.com’s Top 250 Draft Prospects and in Prospects1500.com’s Top 350 and only ranked No. 537 on ProspectLive’s Top 600 prospects, Povich landing in the Top 100 picks was a surprise.
He only pitches out of the stretch, which likely hurt his rankings, but he has a four-pitch mix that he used to join Hajjar on the All-Big 10 team in 2021, going 6-1 with an 88-22 K-BB ratio. His main issue is his stuff.
His fastball sits in the lower 90s, and while he’s 6’3″, there really doesn’t seem to be much projectability left in his frame. He’s a lefty, which is good, but he’s 21 and doesn’t look like he offers much more than as a fill-in starter. Reaching for him in the third round when a little more upside his needed was a bad call. Grade: D+.
Minnesota Twins Draft Choice No. 5: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B, Oklahoma State
Round/Pick: Round 4, Pick 128
MLB.com Pre-Draft Prospect Rankings: 208
Pros: Good Power, Good Arm, Good Production
Cons: Average Contact, Below-Average Defense, Slow Mover
Christian Encarnacion-Strand is the most intriguing prospect that the Twins picked up in these first four rounds. He has a stellar arm, massive power potential, and has lit it up in both Community College and at Oklahoma State.
His swing needs work. A hitch in his swing allows for extra power, but a lot of scouts worry it could be exploited by better pitching. Encarnacion-Strand needs to prove that he can make the adjustments necessary to play in the bigs.
His other issue is his defense. As good as his arm is, he’s not fast, and not very fluid either. That could cause issues when trying to stick at the hot corner, leading to questions about where he could end up, with first base and even catcher suggested.I, however, am higher on him than MLB.com is.
Watching him play, and watching his swing, you can see the issues that scouts have. You can also see the incredible production he puts up in spite of it. The Twins love big power guys, especially at a very thin position. It may have been a bit of a reach, but if they can work out the kinks in the swing, he’s got potential, which is all you can ask for in the fourth round. Grade: B.