Minnesota Twins: Ranking the 5 Most Valuable Trade Chips to Move

It’s becoming clearer and clearer as the season wears on that the Minnesota Twins aren’t going to be competitive in 2021. Too many injuries have piled up and truly awful seasons from key members of the team have left this team twelve games under .500. Though Kenta Maeda and Byron Buxton are both on their way back, the team may be too far gone.

With that in mind, it’s time to look at players the team should move. The trade deadline is still a couple months away, but this team needs to think about the future, whether that be 2022 or beyond. With valuable trade assets, the team could be served well by moving players early.

The Minnesota Twins would benefit greatly from moving on from some current members of the roster.

Here’s the thing though: the Twins’ two most valuable assets are Jose Berrios and Byron Buxton. Both players are scheduled to become free agents in 2023 and both have been talked about as potential trade targets for contenders. Both would bring back at least one Top 100 prospect if traded right now.

Here’s the thing though. Neither should be moved. The 2022 season should hold better injury luck, and top prospects like Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach should be holding down starting spots to begin the season. Without any additions or significant subtractions, here’s what the lineup could look like next year:

• C: Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers
• 1B: Alex Kirilloff
• 2B: Luis Arraez/Nick Gordon
• SS: Jorge Polanco
• 3B: Josh Donaldson
• LF: Trevor Larnach
• CF: Byron Buxton
• RF: Max Kepler
• DH: Miguel Sano

That’s a pretty good lineup if Kirilloff, Larnach, and Gordon improve at least a decent amount. I expect the team will add more pieces too, but that doesn’t mean they can’t clear out a little bit of roster clutter right now. To help make it easier, we ranked five most valuable players the team should move, starting with the least valuable.

These players won’t be Berrios or Buxton, and they won’t be players with almost zero value, like Miguel Sano or Willians Astudillo. It’s strictly players a contender could use and the team won’t need in 2022. Let’s get to it.

Minnesota Twins Trade Chip No. 5: J.A. Happ

Return: Low-Level, Lottery Prospect

The signings of J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker have been absolute, unequivocal disasters for the Twins. Brought in to replace Rich Hill and Jake Odorizzi, the pair of pitchers have been embarrassing, getting hammered in most of their starts. Shoemaker should have been designated for assignment a while ago. Happ may still have some value left.

The 38 year-old’s numbers have been ruined by three really bad starts, but his other six starts were really solid. Before his recent rough patch, he had a very good 1.91 ERA and a 16-8 K/BB ratio. That’s good enough to for someone to make an offer.

A playoff contender dealing with injuries that needs a fifth starter for the stretch run could look at Happ and see him as a dirt cheap option that can offer value. If he has a few good starts over the next month, it shouldn’t be hard for the team to find a buyer.

If he doesn’t turn it around, his playoff experience (15 games) gives him more trade value than Shoemaker or Alex Colome. In addition, the Twins can fill his starts with Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Bailey Ober, and Charlie Barnes until the top prospects are ready, offering a chance to see what they’re made of. A deal makes sense.

Minnesota Twins Trade Chip No. 4: Hansel Robles

Return: A pair of mid-level prospects

Now we get to the good stuff. Hansel Robles has been the Twins’ best right-handed reliever in 2021, making his $2 million deal look like the steal of the offseason. His 2.93 ERA (3.40 FIP) and 9.8 K/9 numbers are excellent.

A reliever that cheap with a history of closing in the middle of a great season would be fairly easy to trade away, especially with relievers being among the most commonly traded players at the deadline.

Robles would almost certainly bring back a return similar to Sergio Romo did when the Twins brought him in from the Marlins. Not a top prospect, but a very solid one who has some upside. With his track record and age, he might even be worth more, bringing back a second prospect.

This does raise another question. Should the Twins even trade Robles? While he’s not currently locked up for 2022, he could return to the team that believed in him, likely for a deal in the $5 million range. If he would come back, then he might be worth trying to re-sign, but that could also happen in the offseason. Let him go for some more young talent this year.

Minnesota Twins Trade Chip No. 2: Nelson Cruz

Return: A Top 10 organizational prospect and a mid-level prospect

What? Nelson Cruz, considered one of baseball’s best players, not the most valuable trade chip? If you stop and think about it, it’s definitely not a surprise. As good of a hitter as Cruz has been over his career, as much postseason experience as he’s had, he’s still a designated hitter, limiting his options.

First off, there are only 15 teams in the American League. When you eliminate the teams under .500, you’re left with just eight. When you take out the Yankees (Giancarlo Stanton), Red Sox (J.D. Martinez), Cleveland (Franmil Reyes), and Houston (Yordan Alvarez), you’re left with the Rays, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Oakland.

That’s a very limited group, making it tough to find a buyer. With that being said, Nelson Cruz is slashing .288/.363/.538 with 12 homers and 30 RBI. He’s not quite as good as he was last year, but he’s still one of the three best designated hitters in baseball.

If the Twins do decide to move him, they’d be losing their most consistent clubhouse leader and best hitter, probably for very little compared to his value to the team. They had to make a similar call with Brian Dozier a few years ago too. Sometimes it’s best to make the right move for the future and find more playing time for the youngsters.

In any case, Cruz would still land a Top 10 prospect (from that system, not overall) and a little more as well. If he keeps hitting like he has recently, that value might go higher. The Twins should take advantage of that, rather than lose him for nothing this offseason.

Minnesota Twins Trade Chip No. 1: Michael Pineda

Return: Two Top 10 organizational prospects

The Twins have the rare opportunity of having a very strong pitcher entering free agency while the team appears out of the playoff hunt. Michael Pineda is arguably one of the best rentals available on the market at a position everyone needs: Starting pitcher.

Pineda’s best season in Minnesota came last year, but he has followed up 2021 with a rock-solid 2022, posting a 3.46 ERA (4.29 FIP), 50/14 K/BB ratio, and a 8.7 K/9 rate. No one will confuse that with an ace, but that’s at the very least a Top 3 starter in just about any rotation.

For any team that has dealt with injuries or just needs a starter for the third game of the playoff series, Pineda could be a great rental. It will hurt the Twins to lose their second most productive pitcher, but it will allow for even more arms to see a spot in the rotation.

Pineda has never pitched in a playoff game before, but that won’t mean he can’t and a team in need of starting pitching would gladly scoop him up to have him start meaningful games for them. This will mean the Twins will have the choice of offers.

I wouldn’t expect any elite prospects, as a year of Francisco Lindor didn’t net a single Top-100 prospect, but I would think the Twins could land at least one, possibly two organizational Top-10 prospects, giving the rapidly thinning farm system a needed jolt.