Minnesota Twins: 3 Ways to Fix the Starting Rotation in 2021

The Minnesota Twins are now 32 games in the 162-game season, roughly 20% of the way through the season. If they were to continue on this pace, the team would only win about 60.75 games, which is a truly abysmal number for a team that was expected to be a World Series contender.

Now, the Twins have run into some bad luck. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Andrelton Simmons, Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, Kyle Garlick, Caleb Thielbar, and Alex Kirilloff have all missed time with injuries or otherwise. On top of this, their team has been extremely ineffective and defensively terrible.

At this point, we’re looking for ways to fix this. There are so many different aspects that need fixing on this team, so we’ll start with the easiest one to fix: The starting rotation. Out of the rotation, bullpen, lineup, and bench, no group is as strong as the rotation is or requires the least to fix it.

The rotation isn’t the main problem for the Minnesota Twins, but it’s not perfect.

Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, and J.A. Happ aren’t the problem, with all three pitchers posting ERA numbers under 3.50. Berrios has put together the best season of his career so far, posting a career-low ERA and the best strikeout numbers of his career.

Pineda’s FIP isn’t the best of his career, but his strikeout numbers are right on pace with his career numbers and his ERA is excellent. Happ’s 1.91 ERA is a little bit of a mirage, but you can’t say he’s doing a bad job as a fourth starter.

For Matt Shoemaker and Kenta Maeda, neither pitcher has come close to living up to their potential and because of this, the rotation hasn’t been as good as it could be. We take a look at how this rotation can turn things around before the end of the season.

Minnesota Twins Rotation Solution No. 1: Fix Kenta Maeda’s Control

The first step to fixing the Twins’ rotation has to be curing whatever ails their ace pitcher, and if you have watched Maeda pitch in 2021, it’s not too difficult to see what is going wrong with the pitcher who dominated just a year before.

Kenta Maeda came over to the Twins through a trade last season and immediately lit it up. Maeda posted a 6-1 record with a 2.70 ERA, an 80-10 K-BB ratio, a 3.00 FIP, and a league-leading 0.750 WHIP, all of which combined to help him finish second in Cy Young voting.

While it’s easy to expect some regression after a shortened season that went that well, no one expected what has happened this year. An ugly 5.02 ERA, a WHIP that has doubled what it was a year ago, and a K/9 rate that has shaved two full strikeouts off its total? Yikes.

Something has to be done, because the Twins need Maeda to be at least at his career average level, a pitcher who strikes out just under 10 batters per nine innings, has an ERA under 3.90, and has extremely low WHIP numbers. How can Kenta get back to that level? The answer is simple: bring the control back.

Maeda started the year off with three starts that at first glance looked good, but two out of three weren’t up to his standards. Here were his lines for each start:

• 88 Pitches, 57 Strikes, 4.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB
• 75 Pitches, 52 Strikes, 6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
• 86 Pitches, 56 Strikes, 4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

There are a few things to notice here, starting with the second start. A six inning quality start with only one walk allowed, six strikeouts, and seventy-percent of the pitches going for strikes is very solid. With that being said, the seven hits were definitely an indicator that things weren’t going perfectly.

The other two starts aren’t good. Over 85 pitches in under 5 innings combined with 6 or 7 hits? That’s not good. It’s passable, but not ace level at all. His five strikeouts over those innings were solid as well.

Things got worse over his next two starts:

• 51 Pitches, 37 Strikes, 3 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 K, 0 BB
• 75 Pitches, 50 Strikes, 5.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 3 K, 0 BB

Those aren’t good starts. Even in his most recent start (5.1 IP,  2 H, 0 R, 8 K, 2 BB), Maeda still threw 94 pitches and labored through the start. He’s missing his spots far more than he did last year.

Maeda has to turn his control issues around in order for this rotation to succeed and I’m willing to bet he does that, as he’s just too good of a pitcher to not pull it together. I just hope that he does it sooner rather than later.

Minnesota Twins Rotation Solution No. 2: Call up Lewis Thorpe Permanently

If Kenta gets his control out of the way, then that leaves just one spot in turmoil: Matt Shoemaker’s spot. Shoemaker has been a disaster since signing a one year, $2 million contract in the offseason, posting a 6.43 ERA and a 6.17 FIP with a career-low 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings.

At this point, it may be time to move on and cut losses. Designating Shoemaker for assignment is not a huge loss either, as he hasn’t been a very successful pitcher recently. Shoemaker has had a brutal past five years, only allowing an ERA below 4.50 once in that span.

The Twins can immediately make the situation better by calling up Lewis Thorpe permanently as the fifth starter. While he may not be the best pitcher available long-term, calling him up would be a great way to see if the changes he’s made will stick.

Through his first three appearances this year, Thorpe has a 4.50 ERA and 2.70 FIP, suggesting that with better defense, his ERA would be even better. His strikeout numbers are low, but his walks/nine innings rate of 1.8 would be one of the best on the team.

The Twins need to see what they have in Thorpe, and having a second left-handed starter in the rotation would be great. The former No. 13 prospect in the system last year, Thorpe had a brutal 2020. Calling him up could give him the ability to prove that he can be the starter the Twins had envisioned him to be, and he can only do that if he takes Shoemaker’s spot.