Minnesota Twins: 3 Ways to Fix the Starting Rotation in 2021

The Minnesota Twins are now 32 games in the 162-game season, roughly 20% of the way through the season. If they were to continue on this pace, the team would only win about 60.75 games, which is a truly abysmal number for a team that was expected to be a World Series contender.

Now, the Twins have run into some bad luck. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Andrelton Simmons, Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, Kyle Garlick, Caleb Thielbar, and Alex Kirilloff have all missed time with injuries or otherwise. On top of this, their team has been extremely ineffective and defensively terrible.

At this point, we’re looking for ways to fix this. There are so many different aspects that need fixing on this team, so we’ll start with the easiest one to fix: The starting rotation. Out of the rotation, bullpen, lineup, and bench, no group is as strong as the rotation is or requires the least to fix it.

The rotation isn’t the main problem for the Minnesota Twins, but it’s not perfect.

Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, and J.A. Happ aren’t the problem, with all three pitchers posting ERA numbers under 3.50. Berrios has put together the best season of his career so far, posting a career-low ERA and the best strikeout numbers of his career.

Pineda’s FIP isn’t the best of his career, but his strikeout numbers are right on pace with his career numbers and his ERA is excellent. Happ’s 1.91 ERA is a little bit of a mirage, but you can’t say he’s doing a bad job as a fourth starter.

For Matt Shoemaker and Kenta Maeda, neither pitcher has come close to living up to their potential and because of this, the rotation hasn’t been as good as it could be. We take a look at how this rotation can turn things around before the end of the season.

Minnesota Twins Rotation Solution No. 1: Fix Kenta Maeda’s Control

The first step to fixing the Twins’ rotation has to be curing whatever ails their ace pitcher, and if you have watched Maeda pitch in 2021, it’s not too difficult to see what is going wrong with the pitcher who dominated just a year before.

Kenta Maeda came over to the Twins through a trade last season and immediately lit it up. Maeda posted a 6-1 record with a 2.70 ERA, an 80-10 K-BB ratio, a 3.00 FIP, and a league-leading 0.750 WHIP, all of which combined to help him finish second in Cy Young voting.

While it’s easy to expect some regression after a shortened season that went that well, no one expected what has happened this year. An ugly 5.02 ERA, a WHIP that has doubled what it was a year ago, and a K/9 rate that has shaved two full strikeouts off its total? Yikes.

Something has to be done, because the Twins need Maeda to be at least at his career average level, a pitcher who strikes out just under 10 batters per nine innings, has an ERA under 3.90, and has extremely low WHIP numbers. How can Kenta get back to that level? The answer is simple: bring the control back.

Maeda started the year off with three starts that at first glance looked good, but two out of three weren’t up to his standards. Here were his lines for each start:

• 88 Pitches, 57 Strikes, 4.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB
• 75 Pitches, 52 Strikes, 6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
• 86 Pitches, 56 Strikes, 4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB

There are a few things to notice here, starting with the second start. A six inning quality start with only one walk allowed, six strikeouts, and seventy-percent of the pitches going for strikes is very solid. With that being said, the seven hits were definitely an indicator that things weren’t going perfectly.

The other two starts aren’t good. Over 85 pitches in under 5 innings combined with 6 or 7 hits? That’s not good. It’s passable, but not ace level at all. His five strikeouts over those innings were solid as well.

Things got worse over his next two starts:

• 51 Pitches, 37 Strikes, 3 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 K, 0 BB
• 75 Pitches, 50 Strikes, 5.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 3 K, 0 BB

Those aren’t good starts. Even in his most recent start (5.1 IP,  2 H, 0 R, 8 K, 2 BB), Maeda still threw 94 pitches and labored through the start. He’s missing his spots far more than he did last year.

Maeda has to turn his control issues around in order for this rotation to succeed and I’m willing to bet he does that, as he’s just too good of a pitcher to not pull it together. I just hope that he does it sooner rather than later.

Minnesota Twins Rotation Solution No. 3: Trade for a Pitcher

With just one spot in the rotation that really needs to be filled, the Twins can look to add one starter and be comfortable with their rotation. While we’ve already suggested a call-up, but trading for a starter would make a lot of sense as well.

The Minnesota Twins have three starters coming out from under contract this offseason, with Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and the aforementioned Shoemaker all hitting free agency. The Twins could stand to benefit from adding someone with a little bit more longevity.

Matthew Boyd (who has two years left on his deal after 2021) and Danny Duffy (one year left after 2021) both are two of the top names available on the market, but would likely need a king’s ransom to be moved from a divisional rival, taking them off the list for the Twins.

One potentially available option could be a face the Twins are very familiar with: former first-round pick Kyle Gibson. Gibson has been incredible through his first seven starts, with a 2.70 ERA and 35 strikeouts. The Rangers have no use for a pitcher with those numbers, meaning he might be had for the right price.

If the Twins can’t get him or another longer-term starter, the team could look for expiring deals. Johnny Cueto, Tyler Anderson, and Jon Gray are pitchers on expiring contracts who may be moved as well. Nationals ace Max Scherzer is another potential option, but probably would cost too much for a one year rental.

Anderson in particular would be a fun replacement, as he would keep a space open if the Twins are saving it for a particular prospect, and the Pittsburgh Pirates would likely give him up for a mid-level prospect, which the Twins have a lot of.

Hopefully the Twins can make a small moves like these to patch up the rotation and turn the 2021 season around.