Minnesota Twins: 3 Reasons not to Overreact to the team’s Slow Start
Reason for Optimism for the Minnesota Twins No. 1: Positive Numbers
The Minnesota Twins offense finished last year with a positive run differential of 54 runs, meaning they scored 54 more runs than their opponents. This year, they are still sitting at a differential of +6, meaning that despite losing more games than they’ve won, they’re outscoring their competition.
In addition to this, the Twins’ Pythagorean Winning Percentage is solid. The team is supposed to be 8-6 right now, which while not great, is better than where they currently sit. The team should correct it’s path sooner rather than later.
How do they do that? Relying on the team bouncing back. The bullpen has given up 35 runs in 50.1 innings, while Alex Colome, Caleb Thielbar, Cody Stashak, and Hansel Robles all have ERAs over 5.00 while Randy Dobnak actually has an ERA that’s almost 12.
The offense also will bounce back. While some players have had really good starts to the year, others have not. Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, and Jake Cave are all hitting under .205. That won’t last all year.
Despite how bad a lot of the individual player’s numbers are currently, they will for sure bounce back the rest of the year. And on top of that, the team’s underlying numbers aren’t terrible. This team will bounce back.
Reason for Optimism for the Minnesota Twins No. 2: Starting Pitching
The Minnesota Twins’ starting pitching has been excellent in 2021, with a combined ERA of 3.24 over the team’s first fourteen starts. The top of the rotation has looked especially good. Kenta Maeda (3.07 ERA/3.09 FIP), Jose Berrios (3.38 ERA/2.16 FIP), and Michael Pineda (1.00 ERA/3.21 FIP) have been as good as hoped for in their first nine starts.
The back of the rotation has been solid a Matt Shoemaker, J.A. Happ, and Lewis Thorpe have been solid in their first five starts too, combining for a 3.80 ERA and almost 8 strikeouts per nine innings. That’s excellent production from the back end to work with elite production at the top.
If the Twins want to stay competitive, the rotation has to keep playing at this pace while the aforementioned bullpen and offensive slow starters catch up. They’ve showed every sign thus far that they can do that. Their previous performances suggest that as well.
In 2020, these pitchers had similar numbers. Maeda was the runner-up for the Cy Young, Pineda had a 2.22 FIP after his suspension, and Berrios had the worst season of the career, but still put together a 4.00 ERA and almost ten strikeouts per nine innings.
Happ had a 3.47 ERA with a 4.57 FIP in 2020, similar to his 3.12 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 2021, so it’s reasonable to expect he could continue. Shoemaker was injured for most of 2019 and 2020, but when he’s healthy he’s solid. This rotation can help carry the team through the dry spells of the early season.
Reason for Optimism for the Minnesota Twins No. 3: Hot Bats
As we mentioned earlier, the Twins have several hitters that aren’t hitting well. Garver and Jeffers are disappointing behind the plate, Polanco hasn’t hit anywhere near what he should, Jake Cave needs to stop taking at-bats, and Miguel Sano has been awful despite improved work in the field.
That doesn’t mean the lineup has been all bad. Luis Arraez has been his normal high-average, clutch self and deserves more credit than he gets. Kyle Garlick has been a pleasant surprise, and deserves FAR more innings than Jake Cave. That’s just the start.
Andrelton Simmons has been excellent so far, hitting .355 before he went down with COVID-19, which is excellent added offense for someone who was brought in for his defense. Nelson Cruz picked up where he left off with a 1.157 OPS and four homers. None of the players has been as successful as Byron Buxton.
Buxton is second in slugging percentage and OPS, third in the MLB in WAR, fifth in homers, eighth in doubles, ninth in total bases, all while sporting one of the best batting averages in the MLB. Buxton’s success has been absolutely excellent, and belongs in the early MVP conversation.
The offense is ranked in the top four in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and fifth in runs. If the bullpen could get it together, the team will get it back on track. I don’t think it’s time to lose hope yet.