Minnesota Twins: Four Questions to Answer during Spring Training
Who plays left field for the Minnesota Twins in 2021?
For the past four years, Eddie Rosario has started at least 70% of Minnesota Twins games in left field, offering fun offense, mediocre defense, and terrible base-running. With his arbitration number rising to high for the Twins to want to meet, the team let him head to Cleveland, leaving some fun memories and a large hole in the lineup.
Now, the team has to decide what to do to fill that hole. After passing on the free agent market, the team can look at options within the club to fill the spot (which was likely always the plan, given the team’s numerous options).
The easy answer here is Alex Kirilloff. Kirilloff is the Twins’ top outfield prospect and the seventh-best outfield prospect in all of baseball. He’s MLB ready, and both the organization and their fans are VERY ready to see what he can do when given some MLB exposure. He even made his playoff debut in the Wild Card Series, dropping a single.
There’s only one holdup here: service time. If the Twins hold him down in the minors for a chunk of the season, they can prevent him from becoming a free agent until 2028, rather than 2027. If they keep him down at the start of the year, they also can preserve one of his options. It’s not a great move for 2020, but it would make sense for the long-term.
If they did opt to hold Kirilloff out for a month or so, a different Twin would get a chance to shine. Jake Cave has been the fourth outfielder for the Twins for the past three years, and while he doesn’t exactly inspire, he wouldn’t actively hurt the team. Luis Arraez is displaced at second and could make an appearance, but he would be best served as the team’s tenth man.
That leaves Brent Rooker. Rooker is 26 now, and despite having played in just seven major league games, has the highest upside of any of these options. We’ve talked a lot about what his year could look like in 2021, but if the team decides it’s not time for Kirilloff yet, Rooker is the smart move.
Prediction: The Minnesota Twins do the smart thing, starting Kirilloff from the gate and keeping Cave and Rooker as fourth and fifth outfielders.
Who will close for the Minnesota Twins in 2021?
This is a similar question to the last one, but the difference is that the incumbent is still on the roster. Taylor Rogers has been the Twins’ primary closer for the past two years, with Trevor May and Sergio Romo stealing a few opportunities here and there. That could change this year.
Rogers has always been best suited for an eighth inning role, one where he can avoid pitching back-to-backs and get more rest, keeping him effective. That’s not what you want out of your closer. You need someone who can get outs consistently every night.
Enter Hansel Robles and Alex Colomé. While neither one is the right guy to be an unquestioned closer, both pitchers could help out Rogers and make things easier on the Twins’ bullpen. Robles was dominant as a closer in 2019 and Colomé was elite in 2020.
I wouldn’t trust any of these three every single night, but using all three to get outs could wind up being extremely effective for the Twins. All three pitchers have different strengths, and if Robles bounces back, then all three could be effective in different ways.
For the most part Rocco Baldelli and Wes Johnson do an excellent job with their relievers, so a three-headed moster could work for this team and make life easier on Rogers. I think Spring Training allows them to experiment and find out that this is the right move.
Prediction: Colome and Rogers earn a bulk of the saves together, while Robles vultures one here and there to help ease the load of closing duties.
Who is the Minnesota Twins’ fifth starter in 2021?
When you let Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, and Rich Hill walk in the same season, you’re letting 25% of your team’s starts from the year before leave with them. The team has to find a way to replace all those innings.
The first move the team made was adding J.A. Happ on a one-year deal, while he’s not an a-list addition, he brings reliability and solid performance, essentially holding a roster spot for Jordan Balazovic or Jhoan Duran in 2022. It’s a good deal.
The issue is that there wasn’t a second one. The Twins didn’t add a guy to pitch fourth in the rotation, and while there was some hope that the team might bring back Odorizzi, the addition of Colome and Odorizzi’s high asking price make that seem very unlikely.
This means that once again, we’re looking at an option from within. Similar to left field, I like to believe this is another placeholder situation. Balazovic and Duran are the clear future at this position barring a trade, and thus far it seems like the Twins aren’t inclined to trade either one.
The Twins have several options that will be at Spring Training and looking to win this spot. Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, and Bailey Ober will all be given a shot to win this job, especially if no one new is brought in.
Smeltzer and Thorpe have the most upside, but it seems very unlikely that either will meet their potential in 2021 (or beyond) given recent performance. And while Bailey Ober is a fun thought, that’s not the rookie you want in your rotation when competing for the playoffs. That leaves Dobnak.
Dobnak started off his Twins career very hot, giving up only seven runs in his first 13 games. Unfortunately, he gave up 19 runs in the next nine games, sending him down to the minors and out of the Twins rotation.
Opposing teams seemed to figure him out, which is never a good sign. If he is given the chance to start again, he would need to change up his pitching style greatly to make it work. I don’t really see him holding the spot for long.
Lastly, the Twins like bullpen games. 10% of the games from 2020 came from the bullpen, and with the way the team built their 40-Man roster, they’re expecting the bullpen to have a big year yet again.
Prediction: Randy Dobnak is used as a primary long reliever for the bullpen games until a prospect or a trade arrival steps in for the Minnesota Twins.
How do the new players fit onto this Minnesota Twins roster?
This is the question that will almost certainly be answered in Spring Training. How will new faces like Simmons, Colomé, Robles, and Happ mesh with the current team and up-and-coming prospects like Kirilloff and Rooker? How will the new positions work for Arraez and Polanco? Does the team continue to gel like they have?
It seems like the Simmons signing will work out well. Polanco and Arraez were consulted throughout the process, so it would be a surprise if there was a real issue there. I’m sure that through injuries and/or lineup tinkering, all three will get plenty of innings.
Happ is a veteran guy, one who has been around the league a while and fit in nicely on each roster he’s been on, and though he’s younger, that’s how Colomé is too. Robles was a bit of a hot head when he was younger, but he’s always been well-liked by his teammates and will likely be well-liked here too.
As for the younger guys, none of the Twins’ prospects have really been noted to have any issues as far as character goes, and they know things are going to go. The Twins have worked hard to build a solid locker room with good chemistry and it looks like all of their recent additions will still fit into that.
It would be extremely surprising to see any issues flare up on this roster, as the Twins build a roster the way they always have: draft and develop good solid players, make small, high-upside free agent moves and focus on team chemistry. That’s how small market teams win titles.
This team made really good additions this offseason. Chemistry was thought about through all this, and Spring Training will show if all of these moves work out. This time will be especially key for the starting nine, considering how important the middle infield situation is. I do believe that in the end, it will work out well.
Prediction: The Minnesota Twins’ team chemistry takes a season (and Spring Training) to bond together, but come divisional race time, this team will be set.
Next. Minnesota Twins: PECOTA Projects the Twins take home AL Central. dark