Minnesota Twins: 3 Reasons why Jorge Alcala could be in for a big 2021

Reason No.1 for Jorge Alcala’s Minnesota Twins Breakout Year: An Outstanding Pitch Mix

His really steady pitch mix doesn’t hurt either. Last season, Alcala heavily featured only two pitches: a fastball and a slider, with the two combining for 91.1% of the 403 pitches he threw last season. He did offer a third option at times, throwing his decent changeup 8.9% of the time.

The slider is Alcala’s main put-away pitch. He generated an xBA of just .192 on the pitch, and a 38.9% whiff percentage. He featured it more heavily to right-handed batters, throwing it 111 times against righties, compared to 69 times to left-handed hitters.

The heater was his most-thrown pitch, but not by much (187 fastballs, 180 sliders). Alcala features a big fastball, and averaged 96.9 mph with it in 2020. He is known as a real flamethrower, and has reached triple digits with the pitch in the past.

Batters did absolutely destroy his fastball though, hitting .333 with an xSLG of .497 off the pitch. He also allowed an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph off his No. 1, which is dangerously high for any pitch.

Despite the changeup not being a go-to pitch, it was typically to left-handed hitters, and with great effect. Southpaws were just 1/8 off the changeup, with 3 strikeouts. This is a small sample size, particularly when referencing the changeup, but nobody can deny how strong Alcala looked during the 2020 campaign.

Reason No. 2 for Jorge Alcala’s Minnesota Twins Breakout Year: Opportunity Arises

As previously mentioned, the Twins will enter the 2021 season missing several key contributors from their 2020 bullpen. Trevor May had an ERA of 3.18 across the last 2 seasons, with 117 strikeouts in just 87 & 2/3 innings and is now out the door. Matt Wisler is gone as well, following a year where he allowed just 3 earned runs in 25 and 1/3 innings.

They aren’t the only key bullpen members to hit free agency. Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard combined to record a 3.32 ERA during the 2020 campaign. While a reunion isn’t completely out of the question, it doesn’t seem likely that their innings need to be replaced somewhere.

While the Twins did sign Alex Colomé on Wednesday night and Hansel Robles earlier in the offseason, the new vacancies open up roles for young pitchers like Alcala to step up, because he fits in this bullpen well.

The team has a few options for closer, with Taylor Rogers serving as closer for a majority of 2020, but he was unable to replicate his success from 2019. The addition of Colomé makes it likely he and Rogers will split closing duties in 2021 while Tyler Duffey will continue to serve as a primary late-inning setup option.

Where does this leave Alcala? Well, it depends on a few things. If the Twins bring in another established veteran (like Clippard) he will likely take precedence over Alcala in terms of the bullpen hierarchy.

Another factor is Robles. The Dominican-born right-hander struggled mightily in 2020, but was extremely reliable for the Angels from 2018-2019 (2.64 ERA, 25 saves in 30 opportunities). If Robles can bounce back as well, then Alcala will suddenly find himself a bit lower on the bullpen totem pole. That doesn’t mean he will lack opportunities though.

Out of Alcala’s 16 appearances last year, 6 of them were in the 6th inning or earlier. In addition, many of his late-inning appearances came in low-leverage situations, with Minnesota either ahead or behind by a decent amount. This could be mean that he will not see as many innings as other relievers, but that simply isn’t the case.

Wisler and Clippard were the only Twins relievers who threw more innings than Alcala last season, as both Alcala and Tyler Duffey tied for third most on the team, with each throwing 24 innings in 2020.

One of the main reasons for this is Alcala’s ability to throw multiple innings. He went more than one inning in 9 of his 16 appearances, and figures to be a reliable longer relief option for the time being.

This may be best for Alcala’s development, as well. The Twins won’t be forced to throw a relatively inexperienced pitcher into a lot of high-leverage situations, but will still be able to find him reliable work in the mid-to-late stages of games. Alcala will still have plenty of opportunities in 2021. But how does he take the next step forward?

Reason No. 3 for Jorge Alcala’s Minnesota Twins Breakout Year:: Secondary Stuff, Primary Results

Alcala’s secondary pitches will be the main key to his success. As I mentioned earlier, batters had relative success against his fastball last season. If Alcala can rely more on his slider and changeup, it could make the fastball much more effective.

Now, to be clear, his slider has already been very impressive. Alcala recorded a run value of -7 with the pitch in 2020 (if you’re unfamiliar with run value, it’s a bit like golf, in the sense that the lower the number, the better the pitch). His RV/100 (run value per 100 pitches) was -2.9, which ties him for 27th in baseball among sliders.

The emergence of the changeup could be a gargantuan difference-maker for Alcala. If the small sample size from 2020 is any indication, the pitch may not need much improvement for it to continue to dominate.

Alcala’s changeup recorded a run value of -2, despite the fact that he threw it just 36 times during the season. This was not enough to qualify for the RV/100 leaderboard, but if it had, it would have been tied for 16th amongst all pitches in the entire league (a -4.3 RV/100 would be tied with Adam Kolarek’s sinker, Zach Plesac’s slider, and Genesis Cabrera’s curveball).

Now, the fact that it was used less often could have actually contributed to its success, as most batters never got consistent looks at Alcala’s changeup. But while it may be unrealistic to expect a more consistently-thrown changeup to be as effective, more off-speed usage will still help play up his lively fastball.

This brings me to my final point. The Twins are expected to be in a tight division race this year with the rival White Sox. While much of the offseason focus has been on new additions like Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Colomé, and the re-signing of Nelson Cruz, the progression of Jorge Alcala could be a major factor in Minnesota’s success.

If one thing is certain, it’s that Alcala’s stuff is legit. In 2021, he has a chance to solidify himself as a top reliever for this team.