Minnesota Twins: Breaking down the Odds of Stars Landing in Minnesota

Minnesota Twins fans want big names to land in the Twin Cities, whether it comes through trade or free agency. We break down the odds for each star.

The MLB offseason is a slow moving beast. From November to the middle of December, very little happened. In the last month, things have exploded. Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Francisco Lindor, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Schwarber, and more have all found new homes. Minnesota Twins fans want to see a name like that land here.

There’s good reason for that hope. The Twins are one of the ten, possibly five best teams in baseball, and they have the ability to bring in elite talent with a stacked farm system and around $20 million in cap space.

The rumor mill has been churning, with names like Trevor Story, Kris Bryant, and a reunion with Jake Odorizzi are all possibilities that have been tossed around, and while we already looked in on which pitchers could end up here, we didn’t bring up other positions, and there’s a lot of talent still available across the board.

The only question is: What is the likelihood that those high-level guys end up in Minnesota? We break down the odds for twelve of the biggest names rumored to be available and whether or not they’ll be wearing a Minnesota uniform in 2021.

To make it easier to follow, we broke it down into four tiers:

• Tier Four: These players aren’t coming to Minnesota. Whether it be money, trade asking point, or chemistry fit, these players would take a minor miracle to end up as a Twin.
• Tier Three: There’s definitely a chance. These players have a lot of other possible fits, but the Twins are poking around. Not impossible.
• Tier Two: These are players who the Twins have checked in on, but it would take a whole lot to bring them here.
• Tier One: These are players that the Twins have either been in contact with or could very easily end up here.

With the tiers underway, Let’s get into it, starting with the least likely.

Tier 4: Minnesota Twins Miracle Players

Trevor Bauer: We start off this list with the best pitcher available on the market and arguably the best player available. The reigning National League Cy Young winner is one of the top targets for any team, regardless of if they’re competing or not.

The issue for Bauer is two-fold: money and organizational situation. While some Twins fans would like to deny it, the Twins simply don’t have the money of a major-market team, and they can’t afford to shell out nearly $40 million on top of their current salary. In addition, Bauer has shown no interest in becoming a Twin. Chance: 5%

J.T. Realmuto: Once again, this is a top notch talent that nearly every team should want on their team. For the Minnesota Twins, Realmuto would be a luxury. The best catcher in baseball would be a huge upgrade over the Mitch Garver-Ryan Jeffers combo. There’s a problem with that though.

He’s completely unnecessary. To bring in Realmuto, the Twins would have to spend close to $30 million dollars on a player that they don’t really need. That doesn’t make a lot of sense, and despite a need, he won’t be playing his home games at Target Field anytime soon. Chance: 5%

D.J. LeMahieu: Noticing a trend here? LeMahieu is the other megastar available on the free agent market. An incredible skill for hitting and a stellar ability to field, LeMahieu has the ability to play first, second, and third base. This allows for him to constantly be on the field.

Both excellent bats to have in the lineup, LeMahieu and Realmuto have something else in common: being a luxury for the Twins. Both players are not necessities, and with LeMahieu’s high price tag, he’s not headed to Minnesota unless something drastically changes. Chances: 7%

Tier 2: Potential Minnesota Twins Trade Targets

Trevor Story: This is the type of rumor that Twins fans have been clamoring for. Despite Jorge Polanco being the starting shortstop in the All-Star game just two years ago, Twins fans seem to want him out the door. Polanco performed better than almost every other Twin in 2020 as well, but I digress. Instead, I’ll focus on the Trevor Story rumor.

First the good, which is significant. Trevor Story is a legitimate star, one of the best hitting shortstops in all of baseball. His speed, power, and ability to hit for contact would make him an extremely valuable piece for any team. He also only has one year left on his current deal, and doesn’t seem keen on returning to Colorado, making him an easier trade target.

The bad is also significant though, which poses a problem. He plays at a hitter friendly park, which raises questions as to if he could do it elsewhere. That contract that makes him easier to acquire, also presents an issue: would he re-sign in Minnesota? Hard to tell. That major issue makes a trade pretty unlikely, but the Twins’ interest makes it possible. Chances: 20%

Marcus Semien: One of the best players available in the free agent market, Marcus Semien poses a lot of risk, as it’s hard to know which version you’re getting. Will it be 2019 Semien, the one finished third in MVP voting and had a WAR of 8.9? Or will it be the 2020 version, who hit just .223 and looked awful on defense?

Semien could be a cheap option, and the team wouldn’t have to give up prospects to get him, making him seem like a nice buy-low option. The only issue is that he looked worse than Polanco did in 2020, so it might be hard to see the Twins signing him if they think they can find better elsewhere. Chances: 20%

Kris Bryant: The one that we all are hoping for. Kris Bryant, just five years removed from an MVP award, is officially on the trading block. The Cubs seem to believe the team needs to rebuild, despite finishing first in their division in 2020, and has already shipped off ace Yu Darvish. From all indications, Bryant will be next.

The All-Star third baseman and outfielder is headed for free agency in 2022, and the Cubs are looking to avoid signing him to an expensive new deal. This could really work to the Twins advantage, as he’d come cheaper, similar to Trevor Story, but it could also be a negative, as trading for Bryant just to see him walk a year later would be very hard to swallow.

The Twins don’t really have a clear cut role for Bryant, who would likely play third, left field, and allow Donaldson to play in the designated hitter spot. Overall, this deal doesn’t make as much sense as a deal for a pitcher would, but the Twins are interested and it adding another bat never hurt anyone. Chances: 30%

Tier 1: Minnesota Twins Top Targets

James Paxton: In order to win in the playoffs, you need top pitching. James Paxton could fit that bill. Paxton has a career 3.58 ERA (3.31 FIP) and an excellent 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings rate (that’s gotten better as his career has progressed). While 2020 was a down year where he had to fight through injuries, he was very good in every single year for the rest of his career.

Paxton has one of the most consistent track records in all of baseball, and with an injury-plagued 2020 season, he could come at a cheaper rate. Paxton would be a stellar No. 2-3 starter, and with a slow-moving market, the Twins should go after this lefty. Chances: 30%

Corey Kluber: When Corey Kluber put together a pitching showcase to show off his arm, 25 teams showed up. The Minnesota Twins were one of them. While the two-time Cy Young award winner hasn’t pitched well since 2018, injuries have played a large part in that, as it’s hard to find a groove when you pitch in eight games over a two year span.

The upside is clear here. Klubot was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball from 2014 to 2018, and the Twins clearly think he could enough left in the tank to be a very good 2-3 starter for the next two years. The only question is if the team gets outbid or Kluber opts to go elsewhere. Chances: 40%

Jake Odorizzi: Pitching is a clear need for the Twins, and Jake Odorizzi would be a familiar face who could give the Twins a big boost. Odorizzi wouldn’t cost too much money, as he had a very rough 2020, but he was an All-Star in 2019, so there’s a lot of value there.

Odorizzi also would be comfortable coming back here, as he didn’t quite seem ready to leave the franchise after their early exit in the 2020 playoffs. I actually expect him to be back in a Twins uniform next year, filling a role in the back of the starting rotation. Chances: 50%