Minnesota Twins: How the Rest of the AL Central can become Contenders
Minnesota Twins AL Central Competitor No.1: Cleveland
This is the team whose needle has moved the most over the last week, but unfortunately for them, it’s heading in the wrong direction. Four-time All-Star and Franchise Cornerstone Francisco Lindor was traded to the New York Mets as Cleveland tries to recoup some value with only one year left on his contract.
It’s clear that Cleveland is trying to save money, especially when you compare the 2021 team to the Cleveland teams that ran the AL Central from 2016-18. In just the last year, they have traded star pitchers Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and now Carlos Carrasco, along with Lindor). All-Star hitters like Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana have been cap-based casualties too.
While it’s true that they have still been competitive over the last few years, losing a guy like Lindor is a huge blow to a team looking to still win a lot of baseball games. They are still a pitching factory and will be just fine from the mound, it’s their lineup will suffer.
In 2020, FanGraphs ranked the Cleveland offense at 17th. Even though it wasn’t a career year for Lindor, who had a WAR of 1.9 in 2020, he was still one of their top hitters and leaders of an offense that struggled, especially when he was out of the lineup. In his six year career, Lindor racked up 896 hits, 138 home runs, and has a career OPS of .833, so his presence is huge.
Cleveland isn’t a bad team, but they are a team whose championship window was just slammed shut by the franchise’s ownership. Maybe they still find a way to be competitive in 2021. With the Twins’ window still wide open and the window for the White Sox just opening up though, they find their place as the third best team in the division.
To catch the Twins, they need to pitch lights-out. So lights-out that it can lift up an offense that is really thin outside of Jose Ramirez. Since trading for expensive offense seems unlikely, their only path to competition is Shane Bieber and the rotation carrying this team.
Minnesota Twins AL Central Competitor No. 2: Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers are the better of the lesser teams at the bottom of the Central that are continuing on with their rebuild. There won’t be a lot of change in the Motor City, except for one big one: former Minnesota Twins’ manager Ron Gardenhire has retired due to health reasons, and the organization has replaced him with former Astros boss A.J. Hinch.
Hinch has had a lot of success managing both rebuilding and championship caliber squads in Houston (though it’s now tainted due to the cheating scandal), so bringing him in seems like a really good move. The only question is it whether he can turn things around in Detroit as well and prove that he has some managerial ability and it wasn’t just cheating.
On the player side, all of the losing has had some advantages in the form of high draft picks, including two number one overall selections. Those two selections, Arizona State 3B Spencer Torkelson and Auburn SP Casey Mize, are the key to the Tigers getting back into a competitive situation.
Mize, who made his big league debut in 2020, struggled a bit in his first glimpse of big league action, pitching just over 28 innings in 7 starts and accumulating an ERA of nearly 7. He did strikeout 26 batters, and his potential is massive, so the Tigers have to hope that he can start to develop and get some quality reps against some big league lineups.
For current players, they do have some talent on their roster. Spencer Turnbull was the ace of the Tigers staff in 2020, and while his strikeout rate may have been low, he nearly did the impossible by keeping the ball on the ground in today’s game with a 50% ground ball rate.
In the lineup, Jeimer Candelario (.297/.369/.503), Victor Reyes (.277/.315/.391), and former Twin Jonathan Schoop (.278/.324/.475) are all solid side pieces around budding star Willi Castro (.349/.381/.550) who will have to carry the offense.
Overall, the Detroit Tigers are still a few years away from truly being back in contention. The only way this team gets into contention is another star emerges alongside Castro (maybe Torkelson?) and Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and Spencer Turnbull turn into a dominant trio atop the rotation.
Their future is bright with the prospects they have, and if they convince a few reclamation projects to come aboard that turn around, they could be better than the bottom-feeder they have been. Detroit faces an uphill battle to be a threat in the AL Central in 2021, but if a lot comes together in 2021, and we mean a lot, than the Tigers can turn this bus around.
Minnesota Twins AL Central Competitor No. 3: Kansas City Royals
Lastly, we come down to the Kansas City Royals. Despite having a losing record for the last four seasons, the Royals still seem to be at the very beginning of what is likely to be a long rebuild. Despite winning the World Series just five years ago, no team in the division is in a worse spot.
How did this happen though? Simple. When their championship winning core started to fall apart in 2016, they never traded away assets like Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Danny Duffy before they hit free agency or lost value, meaning they had very little to build around.
To make matters worse, a lot of their first round picks haven’t panned out, and their farm system is just entering the Top 10 despite four really rough seasons. It’s finally turning around now though. With World Series winning manager Ned Yost riding off into the sunset after 2019, they are trying to turn the page with former Cardinals manager Mike Matheny.
Matheny, who was very solid with the Cardinals, has a few pieces that are useful on offense. All-Star Whit Merrifield (.282/.325/.440) and ageless wonder Salvador Perez (.333/.335/.633) are both in place, while Adalberto Mondesi (.256/.294/.416) continues to grow as a player. Jorge Soler’s power is one-dimensional, but he produces incredible numbers.
The biggest issue in Kauffman Stadium is on the mound. The pitching staff is ranked 19th in baseball according to FanGraphs, and while Brad Keller and Brady Singer look really promising, the rest of the rotation and bullpen is absolutely awful.
The chances of the Royals contending is virtually zero. Even if they find some good reclamation projects and add a couple more pitchers, the team would still need Brad Keller to win the Cy Young and for Brady Singer to make a monster step forward AND the offense would need a breakout from an unknown player to keep them competitive.
The Royals should forget competing with the Minnesota Twins for the Central in 2021, and instead try and compete for the number one overall pick in 2022 to bring in more elite young talent to go with Bobby Witt Jr. and Asa Lacy. Trading new acquisition Carlos Santana, Merrifield, Perez, and maybe even Duffy if he finds his form would be a big help. This team has a long way to go.
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