Minnesota Twins: Finding the Falvine Duo’s Batting Average as GM

The Minnesota Twins’ brain trust of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine has been at the helm for nearly five years. What’s their batting average in that span?

The Milwaukee Brewers’ FanSided website, Reviewing the Brew, recently took a look at the Brewers’ president of baseball operation David Stearns’ batting average as a GM, breaking down his success in his job. The Detroit Tigers’ FanSided website followed the same formula for Al Avila. I think it’s time for us to do the same for the Falvine Duo of the Minnesota Twins.

Each of other teams has one person who is primarily in charge of the personnel moves for their team, but it’s a little different in Minnesota. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine work together on almost everything, so we give them a batting average.

We’ll use the same formula the previous articles have, looking at each free agent signing, trade, and waiver claims and determining if each move was a hit, an out (a miss), or a walk (a draw). If it’s a draw, just like a real walk, it doesn’t count for or against Falvine’s GM batting average.

This will be an interesting process, and I think it might be even higher than I think it is. We’ll start this off with Waiver Claims, as we need to get through those first before we head to trades and then free agent signings where a good chunk of their batting average will be decided. Let’s get into it.

Minnesota Twins Waiver Claims and Rule 5 Picks of the Falvine Era

October 2016-March 2017

• Twins claimed RHP Miguel Diaz off waivers from Milwaukee Brewers (Draw)
• Twins claimed SS Ehire Adrianza off waivers from Milwaukee Brewers. (Hit)

The Falvine Duo was only hired in October of 2016, so they didn’t  make a lot of moves before their first season began. Miguel Diaz was traded away almost immediately, so that one is just a draw. The Adrianza claim brought us one of our most consistent utility players in recent memory, so that’s an easy hit.

April 2017-March 2018

• Twins claimed LHP Adam Wilk off waivers from New York Mets. (Miss)
• Twins claimed RHP Chris Heston off waivers from Los Angeles Dodgers. (Miss)
• Twins claimed RHP Tyler Kinley off waivers from Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. (Miss)
• Twins claimed DH Kennys Vargas off waivers from Cincinnati Reds. (Miss)

Wilk, Heston, and Kinley pitched in four combined games after coming over via waiver claim or Rule 5 Pick. Vargas was claimed by the Reds earlier in the month, but was returned and never played a major league after that.

April 2018-March 2019

• Twins claimed RHP David Hale off waivers from New York Yankees. (Miss)
• Twins claimed 1B Taylor Motter off waivers from Seattle Mariners. (Miss)
• Twins claimed RF Johnny Field off waivers from Cleveland Indians. (Hit)
• Twins claimed RHP Oliver Drake off waivers from Toronto Blue Jays. (Hit)
• Twins claimed CF Michael Reed off waivers from Atlanta Braves. (Miss)
• Twins claimed 1B C.J. Cron off waivers from Tampa Bay Rays. (Hit)

In this year, the Twins went a solid .500 with their waiver claims. Motter, Reed, and Hale didn’t play or weren’t good during their short tenures in Minnesota, so they were easy misses. Field and Drake both were solid depth pieces (good for waiver claims), and Cron hit 25 home runs. Not too shabby.

April 2019-September 2020

• Twins claimed RHP Matt Wisler off waivers from Seattle Mariners (Hit)

Over two seasons, the Twins only made one waiver claim, bringing in Matt Wisler from the Mariners. Despite him being let go as a waiver claim, Wisler was a very good move to make for the team for one year.

Batting Average for Falvine on Minnesota Twins Waiver Claims: .417

The Falvine duo has gone through five hits, seven misses, and one draw on waiver claims over their tenure in charge. While having under 42% of your waiver claims be successful doesn’t seem like much, that’s an excellent rate on low-talent wild cards.

Minnesota Twins Free Agent Signings of the Falvine Era Pt. 1

October 2016-March 2017

• Minnesota Twins signed free agent C Jason Castro. (Miss)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent RHP Matt Belisle. (Hit)

Jason Castro was a solid signing for the Twins, but at the price of $8 million per year, you’re hoping to get a pretty good starting catcher. Castro was just a good rotational defensive catcher. Belisle cost $2.05 million, expensive for an inning-eater, but he did his job well, with a 4.03 ERA and some of the best strikeout numbers of his career.

April 2017-March 2018

• Twins signed free agent RHP Bartolo Colon to a minor league contract. (Miss)
• Twins signed free agent RHP Randy Dobnak to a minor league contract. (Hit)
• Twins signed free agent C Willians Astudillo to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. (Hit)
• Twins signed free agent RHP Michael Pineda. (Hit)
• Twins signed free agent RHP Fernando Rodney. (Hit)
• Twins signed free agent LHP Zach Duke. (Hit)
• Twins signed free agent RHP Addison Reed. (Miss)
• Twins signed free agent RHP Matt Magill to a minor league contract. (Miss)
• Twins signed free agent RHP Ryne Harper to a minor league contract. (Hit)
• Twins signed free agent RHP Anibal Sanchez. (Miss)
• Twins signed free agent SS Erick Aybar to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. (Miss)
• Twins signed free agent 1B Logan Morrison. (Miss)
• Twins signed free agent RHP Lance Lynn. (Miss)

What a list of deals. There are a lot of pitchers, so we’ll start with them and open with the misses that really didn’t work out. Addison Reed and Matt Magill each pitched a large chunk of games for the Twins for one season, but neither was effective. Reed was especially disappointing, given that he cost a whopping $16.75 million over two years.

Annibal Sanchez, Lance Lynn, and Bartolo Colon all have been very good pitchers during their careers, but all three weren’t any good in Minnesota, with Sanchez even being released a month after he signed, playing zero games here.

To finish out the misses, Aybar couldn’t even make the big league roster and while Logan Morrison was cheap, he was a truly terrible signing that offered very little for the team. That said, Falvine did make some good moves here.

Randy Dobnak, Michael Pineda, and Willians Astudillo made solid impacts on the team that have continued til today. Zach Duke was very good in his one year here, and Rodney was exceptional before being traded for a Top 20 prospect. That’s a huge hit. Ditto for Ryne Harper, who had a positive impact and helped earn a prospect when he was traded away.

Batting Average for Falvine on Minnesota Twins Free Agency 2016-2018: .467

It seems the Minnesota Twins are even better in Free Agency than they were in waiver claims. The Twins hit on seven of their 15 signings from their 2016-2018 groups, a pretty solid batting average. Again, that’s hitting on less than 50%, but still a solid number for a Major League team.

Minnesota Twins Free Agent Signings of the Falvine Era Pt. 2

April 2018-March 2019

• Minnesota Twins signed free agent RHP Matt Belisle. (Miss)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent 2B Jonathan Schoop. (Hit)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent RHP Mike Morin to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. (Hit)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent DH Nelson Cruz. (Hit)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent RHP Blake Parker. (Miss)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent LHP Martin Perez. (Miss)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent 3B Marwin Gonzalez. (Miss)

April 2019-September 2020

• Minnesota Twins signed free agent RHP Cody Allen to a minor league contract. (Miss)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent C Alex Avila. (Miss)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent RHP Tyler Clippard. (Hit)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent RHP Homer Bailey. (Miss)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent LHP Rich Hill. (Hit)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent 3B Josh Donaldson. (Hit)
• Minnesota Twins signed free agent RHP Jhoulys Chacin to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. (Miss)

No we’re starting to see some more misses. Matt Belisle was washed up when they brought him in, Blake Parker flopped as the closer, Martin Perez started hot but absolutely imploded, and Marwin Gonzalez never came close to expectations.

Cody Allen disappointed, Homer Bailey missed almost all season, and the Jhoulys Chacin signing wasn’t successful at all. Alex Avila also wasn’t great. It definitely hasn’t been all bad over the past two years.

On the flip side, Jonathan Schoop and Mike Morin made positive impacts in their one season here, Tyler Clippard and Rich Hill were very useful pieces, and while Josh Donaldson hasn’t been as healthy as hoped, he played his position well when on the field. That doesn’t even include Nelson Cruz, whose signing was a grand slam success.

Batting Average for Falvine on Minnesota Twins Free Agency 2018-2020 .429

The Twins’ front office regime is hitting on just below 43% of their players that they’ve signed over the last couple of years. While that still would be considered a good batting average, it’s a very disappointing percentage for free agents. Hopefully they can boost it up this offseason

Minnesota Twins Free Agent Trades of the Falvine Era Pt. 1

October 2016-March 2017

• Minnesota Twins traded RHP Miguel Diaz to San Diego Padres for RHP Justin Haley. (Draw)
• Minnesota Twins traded RHP Pat Light to Pittsburgh Pirates for Player To Be Named Later. (Draw)

April 2017-March 2018

• Twins traded LF Danny Santana to Atlanta Braves for cash and LHP Kevin Chapman. (Miss)
• Twins traded LHP Jason Wheeler to Los Angeles Dodgers for cash. (Draw)
• Twins traded RHP Huascar Ynoa to Atlanta Braves for C Anthony Recker and LHP Jaime Garcia. (Miss)
• Twins traded RHP Nick Tepesch to Toronto Blue Jays for cash (Draw)
• Twins traded C John Ryan Murphy to Arizona Diamondbacks for LHP Gabriel Moya. (Hit)
• Twins traded LHP Jaime Garcia to New York Yankees for LHP Dietrich Enns and RHP Zack Littell. (Hit)
• Twins traded RHP Brandon Kintzler to Washington Nationals for Future Considerations (international bonus money) and LHP Tyler Watson (Miss)
• Twins traded Future Considerations to Seattle Mariners for C David Banuelos (Draw)
• Twins traded Future Considerations to Los Angeles Angels for LF Jacob Pearson (Draw)
• Twins traded SS Jermaine Palacios to Tampa Bay Rays for RHP Jake Odorizzi (Hit)
• Twins traded RHP Luis Gil to New York Yankees for CF Jake Cave. (Hit)

What a year of trades. There were several really good trades, a couple truly awful ones, and lots of meh in between. We’ll start with the worst of the bunch.

The trade sending Danny Santana away wasn’t great, as anytime you send away a usable player for a pitcher who never made it back to the big leagues isn’t great. Shipping away a pitching prospect with upside away (Ynoa) for a mediocre pitcher you only get one start out of? Even worse.

Trades sending out Jason Wheeler and Nick Tepesch for cash and bringing in for David Banuelos and Jacob Pearson for virtually nothing even out as draws, and the Brandon Kintzler trade can’t fully be evaluated right now, but they should have gotten more. The Gabriel Moya deal offered a little more upside.

The biggest two wins of these trades were for guys named Jake. The Jake Odorizzi Deal was a huge success, as Palacios has fizzled in High-A while Odorizzi was an All-Star and has been a great starter. Luis Gil is also stuck in High-A while Cave has turned into a useful backup.

Batting Average for Falvine on Minnesota Twins Trades in 2016-2018: .571

How about that. The Falvine duo is stellar when it comes to trades, and  they show it here. Hitting on over 57% of their trades is a truly really good number, and coming away with some key pieces for a couple of division winners is a good deal.

Minnesota Twins Free Agent Trades of the Falvine Era Pt. 2

April 2018-March 2019

• Twins traded RHP Phil Hughes and Future Considerations to San Diego Padres for C Janigson Villalobos. (Draw)
• Twins traded RHP Myles Jaye to Cleveland Indians for cash. (Draw)
• Twins traded cash to Tampa Bay Rays for LF Jeremy Hazelbaker. (Draw)
• Twins traded RHP Ryan Pressly to Houston Astros for CF Gilberto Celestino and RHP Jorge Alcala. (Hit)
• Twins traded SS Eduardo Escobar to Arizona Diamondbacks for RF Ernie De La Trinidad, RF Gabriel Maciel and RHP Jhoan Duran. (Draw)
• Twins traded RHP Lance Lynn and cash to New York Yankees for 1B Tyler Austin and RHP Luis Rijo. (Draw)
• Twins traded LHP Zach Duke and cash to Seattle Mariners for RHP Chase De Jong and 1B Ryan Costello. (Draw)
• Twins traded 2B Brian Dozier to Los Angeles Dodgers for 2B Logan Forsythe, OF Luke Raley and LHP Devin Smeltzer. (Draw)
• Twins traded RHP Fernando Rodney to Oakland Athletics for RHP Dakota Chalmers. (Draw)
• Twins traded C Bobby Wilson to Chicago Cubs for C Chris Gimenez and Player To Be Named Later. (Draw)
• Twins traded RHP Nick Anderson to Miami Marlins for 3B Brian Schales. (Miss)
• Twins traded RHP John Curtiss to Los Angeles Angels for SS Daniel Ozoria. (Miss)
• Twins traded CF Zack Granite to Texas Rangers for cash and RHP Xavier Moore. (Draw)
• Twins traded RHP Xavier Moore to Baltimore Orioles for Future Considerations. (Draw)
• Twins traded CF Michael Reed to San Francisco Giants for OF John Andreoli. (Draw)

April 2019-September 2020

• Twins traded 1B Tyler Austin to San Francisco Giants for LF Malique Ziegler. (Draw)
• Twins traded 2B Adam Rosales to Cleveland Indians for cash. (Draw)
• Twins traded 1B Lewin Diaz to Miami Marlins for RHP Sergio Romo, RHP Chris Vallimont and Player To Be Named Later. (Hit)
• Twins traded RF Jaylin Davis, RHP Kai-Wei Teng and RHP Prelander Berroa to San Fransisco Giants for RHP Sam Dyson. (Miss)
• Twins traded RHP Ryne Harper to Washington Nationals for RHP Hunter McMahon. (Draw)
• Twins traded RHP Brusdar Graterol, RF Luke Raley and Future Considerations to Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Kenta Maeda, C Jair Camargo and cash. (Hit)

Here’s the only issue with trades this new: it’s impossible to tell if they were successful or not. For the Lynn, Escobar, Duke, and Dozier deals, the prospects haven’t quite panned out, but the Twins didn’t lose any elite talent, so they stick as a draws.

For misses, the Twins missed big on Nick Anderson and John Curtiss, as both played key roles in the Rays in their American League championship run, while Dyson was a disaster. They gave up decent players for nothing in all three deals.

On the flip side, they’ve also have hit on some big deals over the last year and half. The Ryan Pressly deal saw them give up one of the best relievers in baseball, but they did bring back a potential future closer and a high upside. The Romo deal sent out a young high-upside prospect and got a prospect and a good reliever in return.

This doesn’t even mention the Kenta Maeda deal. Maeda turned into a Cy Young runner-up in his one year in Minnesota, and while the Dodgers did get a high-end reliever, this is clearly a win-win deal for both teams, so I gave them a hit.

Batting Average for Falvine on Minnesota Twins Trades in 2018-2020: .500

After sorting through all of the draws, the Falvine partnership finishes up with a .500 batting average in trades for this time period, going 3-6. Once again, trades clearly have been the high point of their tenure. Now it’s time to wrap up with the final average.