Breaking down the Minnesota Twins’ AL Central Rivals: Detroit Tigers
Puckett’s Pond’s series on the Minnesota Twins’ American League Central rivals continues with the Detroit Tigers, baseball’s worst team in 2019.
With baseball still postponed, the Minnesota Twins’ push to win the AL Central will have to wait. With that in mind, Puckett’s Pond will break down the other teams in the AL Central, and how they stack up against the Twins.
After checking out the Chicago White Sox on Friday, we’re taking a look at the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers struggled mightily last season, finishing with their second-worst record in team history at a rotten 47-114, nine and a half games behind the Miami Marlins, the league’s second worst team.
Though the team had a decent offseason, it won’t turn the club around in one year. We compared the offseason, pitching, lineup, bench, and intangibles against the Twins before predicting the record for each team. Spoiler alert: The Tigers still aren’t great.
Minnesota Twins offseason vs. Detroit Tigers offseason
The Minnesota Twins had the best offseason the team has put together in recent memory. Signing Alex Avila, Rich Hill, Homer Bailey and Tyler Clippard, while re-signing Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Sergio Romo would qualify as a huge win for most teams.
The Twins weren’t content and are looking to push their title window wide open, signing 3-Time All-Star and 2015 MVP Josh Donaldson and trading for reliable starter Kenta Maeda. Very few teams had an offseason like the Twins, and that includes the Tigers.
The Tigers made some good signings over the offseason, bringing in sluggers (and former Twins) C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop, who each had over twenty homers last season. They also brought in Austin Romine, Hector Santiago, Cameron Maybin, and Ivan Nova while resigning Jordy Mercer.
Now none of the new Tigers are stars (there are two total All-Star performances between all seven players), but for a rebuilding team, the Tigers brought in some good tradable pieces. However, the Twins still easily take this one. Advantage Twins.
Minnesota Twins Intangibles vs. Detroit Tigers Intangibles
Intangibles cover things like the fan base, management, and chemistry. These are three areas where the Twins have a massive advantage over the Tigers. The Twins have the reigning Manager of the Year in Rocco Baldelli, a thriving fan base, and a team chemistry from ownership to the players that everyone is in on.
The Tigers usually have a solid fan base, but with the team in the middle of a massive rebuild and finishing a third straight season (likely headed for four) of at least ninety-eight losses, the fans haven’t been coming. Every single player knows they could be traded or released at any second, making chemistry hard to build.
Finally, management has struggled to rebuild the farm system and manager Ron Gardenhire (formerly with the Twins) has struggled to lead a productive team. In terms of direction, the Twins are flying upwards, and the Tigers have hit rock bottom. Advantage: Twins.
Minnesota Twins Rotation vs. Detroit Tigers Rotation
While the Twins’ rotation greatly improved over the offseason with Kenta Maeda and Homer Bailey serving as upgrades over Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez, the Tigers’ rotation got a little better with Ivan Nova offering a little more stability. This isn’t a very close competition, but let’s get into it anyway.
Twins:
- Jose Berrios: 14-8, 3.68 ERA, 195 K, All-Star
- Jake Odorizzi: 15-7, 3.51 ERA, 178 K, All-Star
- Kenta Maeda: 10-8, 4.04 ERA, 169 K
- Randy Dobnak: 2-1, 1.59 ERA, 23 K
- Homer Bailey: 13-9, 4.57 ERA, 149 K
- Michael Pineda: 11-5, 4.01 ERA, 140 K (39 Games Remaining on his Suspension)
Tigers:
- Matthew Boyd: 9-12, 4.56 ERA, 238 K
- Jordan Zimmerman: 1-13, 6.91 ERA, 82 K
- Spencer Turnbull: 3-17, 4.61 ERA, 146 K
- Ivan Nova: 11-12, 4.72 ERA, 114 K
- Daniel Norris: 3-13, 4.49 ERA, 125 K
The Twins never got the rest of Spring Training to decide their rotation, but in this competition it doesn’t really matter. Homer Bailey, the Twin’s fifth starter, pitched better than all but one of the Tigers starters, with Matthew Boyd as the only exception. Minnesota finally has a rotation that goes five starters deep.
The Tigers defense and offense are both bad, but that doesn’t give an excuse for the stats that the Tigers rolled out last year. Boyd is a very good pitcher (238 strikeouts is excellent), and although Turnbull and Norris are youngish and former second-round picks, neither has shown much.
The only way that the Tigers outperform the Twins is if Boyd improves and limits homers (likely), Turnbull and Norris live up to their draft pedigree (unlikely), Ivan Nova pitches like he’s in Pittsburgh (very unlikely), and Jordan Zimmerman lives up to his $110 million dollar contract and pitches like it’s 2014 to avoid his contract being the biggest bust ever (nope). Yikes.
Cheer up Tiger fans, Casey Mize and Matt Manning should be here soon. Advantage: Twins
Minnesota Twins Bullpen vs. Detroit Tigers Bullpen
If you were looking for the Tigers to finally gain an advantage, keep looking. As we’ve talked about before, Minnesota has built a deep bullpen and farm system of relievers that it knows how to use. Detroit has not. Let’s get going.
Twins:
- Trevor May: 64.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 79 K, 3 SV
- Tyler Duffey: 57.1 IP, 2.50 ERA, 82 K
- Sergio Romo: 60.1 IP, 3.43 ERA, 60 K, 20 SV
- Tyler Clippard: 62 IP, 2.90 ERA, 64 K
- Cody Stashak: 25 IP, 3.24 ERA, 25 K
- Zack Littell: 37.0 IP, 2.68 ERA, 32 K
- Closer-Taylor Rogers: 69 IP, 2.61 ERA, 90 K, 30 SV
Tigers:
- Buck Farmer: 67.2 IP, 3.72 ERA, 73 K
- Gregory Soto: 57.2 IP, 5.77 ERA, 45 K
- Jose Cisnero: 35.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 40 K
- David McKay: 19.1 IP, 5.59 ERA, 29 K
- Bryan Garcia: 6.2 IP, 12.15 ERA, 7 K
- Hector Santiago: 33.2 IP, 6.68 ERA, 40 K
- Closer-Joe Jimenez: 59.2 IP, 4.37 ERA, 82 K, 9 SV
The Minnesota Twins bullpen is deep and has six players that could help get the ball to the closer without a lot of damage. The Detroit Tigers have one. Buck Farmer is a solid pitcher, but similar to Matthew Boyd, he doesn’t have a lot of help.
Soto, McKay, Garcia, and Jimenez are all under twenty-six, while Farmer (28) and Jose Cisnero (30) aren’t exactly old. This is a young bullpen that could improve, but it isn’t a lockdown group that will help carry this team. Yet again, the Twins take this one. Advantage: Twins.
Minnesota Twins Lineup vs. Detroit Tigers Lineup
The Tigers lineup looks nothing like the lineup that led them to a World Series just eight years ago. Former Triple Crown Winner and future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera is the only holdover from that team and a shell of his former self. However, both teams bring a stronger lineup into 2020.
Twins:
- C-Mitch Garver: .273 BA, 31 HR, 67 RBI, Silver Slugger
- 1B-Miguel Sano: .247 BA, 34 HR, 79 RBI
- 2B-Luis Arraez: .334 BA, 4 HR, 28 RBI
- SS-Jorge Polanco: .295 BA, 22 HR, 79 RBI, All-Star
- 3B-Josh Donaldson: .259 BA, 37 HR, 94 RBI
- LF-Eddie Rosario: .276 BA, 32 HR, 109 RBI
- CF-Byron Buxton: .262 BA, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 14 SB
- RF-Max Kepler: .252 BA, 36 HR, 90 RBI
- DH-Nelson Cruz: .311 BA, 41 HR, 108 RBI
Tigers
- C-Austin Romine: .281 BA, 8 HR, 31 RBI
- 1B-C.J. Cron: .253 BA, 25 HR, 78 RBI
- 2B-Jonathan Schoop: .256 BA, 23 HR, 59 RBI
- SS-Niko Goodrum: .248 BA, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 12 SB
- 3B-Jeimer Candelario: .203 BA, 8 HR, 32 RBI
- LF-Cameron Maybin: .285 BA, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 9 SB
- CF-Jacoby Jones: .235 BA, 11 HR, 26 RBI, 7 SB
- RF-Christin Stewart: .233 BA, 10 HR, 40 RBI
- DH-Miguel Cabrera: .282 BA, 12 HR, 59 RBI
Having another team’s castoff (C.J. Cron) immediately come in and be your team’s best hitter isn’t a great look for the franchise, but that’s where the Tigers are now. Miggy’s stats are excellent for a 36-year-old role player, but the former MVP was the best hitter on this team, and that hurts.
Detroit is a young team, and getting Stewart involved is a good way to get a top prospect more innings. Cron and Schoop will offer some power and Romine and Maybin will be solid at getting on base, but this lineup won’t compete much.
The team that let both Cron and Schoop walk for nothing, the Twins are in pretty great shape lineup-wise. All nine hitters are capable of putting the ball in play and hitting it hard. The reigning American League Central Champs take this one. Advantage: Twins.
Minnesota Twins Bench vs. Detroit Tigers Bench
Both the Twins and the Tigers have solid benches, with the Tigers having a deep outfield. That being said, most of the Twins bench players would compete for a starting job in Detroit, so this is isn’t a very fair competition.
Twins:
- C-Alex Avila: .207 BA, 9 HR, 24 RBI
- IF-Ehire Adrianza: .272 BA, 5 HR, 22 RBI
- IF/OF-Marwin Gonzalez: .264 BA, 15 HR, 55 RBI
- IF/OF-Willians Astudillo: .268 BA, 4 HR, 21 RBI
- OF-Jake Cave: .258 BA, 8 HR, 25 RBI
Tigers:
- C-Eric Haase: .063 BA, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- C-Grayson Greiner: .202 BA, 5 HR, 19 RBI
- IF-Jordy Mercer: .270 BA, 9 HR, 22 RBI
- IF/OF-Harold Castro: 291 BA, 5 HR, 38 RBI
- OF-Victor Reyes: .304 BA, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 9 SB
The bench battle ends the same way as the other comparisons went. In the Twins favor. With Marwin Gonzalez as the utility guy and Avila and Astudillo as strong secondary options behind the plate, the Tigers can’t hold up. Advantage: Twins.
Record Prediction:
The Twins will have a bit of a regression this season, dropping about six wins from last season, but the Tigers will have a better season than last year, with about a thirteen game improvement.
Minnesota Twins: 95-67
Detroit Tigers: 60-102
A special thank you to the Co-Experts of Motor City Bengals, the Detroit Tigers FanSided site for providing the Detroit Tigers projection!
Next. Breaking down the Minnesota Twins’ AL Central Rivals: Chicago White Sox. dark