Minnesota Twins: Three Reasons why Max Kepler will dominate again in 2020
Max Kepler’s breakout season was one of the biggest reasons the Minnesota Twins won their division last season. Will he be able to keep up that success?
Max Kepler put together his best season as a member of the Minnesota Twins last year, posting a .255 average, an .855 OPS, 36 homers, and 90 RBIs, all career highs on offense. His defense was elite as well, as he was the only Twin (minimum 20 innings) to have a fielding percentage of 1.000, meaning he didn’t make a single error throughout the year. These numbers, while excellent, were better than the stats posted in previous seasons. Kepler had never hit over 20 homers, had never reached 70 RBIs, or slashed anything close to his .252/.336/.519 line. This breakout has led to a lot of questions leading up to the Twins season opener in late March, questions such as:
-“Will he fall back to his old numbers?”
-“Was it a one year boost because of the new coaching staff?”
-“Will his number drop without (hitting coach) James Rowson and (bench coach) Derek Shelton?”
While these doubts are easy to develop here in Minnesota, where fans have watched many a player give Minnesotans hope, just to be let down (in a devastating fashion), it may not be time for pessimism yet. Max Kepler’s production offers three main reasons for hope in the 2021 season, so before any more worrying can take place, let’s get into it.
Reason #1: Kepler’s Consistent Defensive Excellence
Kepler has always been a strong defensive outfielder. His first three years in the league, Kepler consistently offered excellent defense in right field and was a solid defender in center as well. He consistently finished with a positive Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), which indicates how many runs a player saved , while improving his fielding percentage every season. He worked hard throughout the seasons to remain an everyday player. But over the past two seasons, he got even better. And there are stats to back it up.
In 2018, Kepler’s UZR rating shot up to 10.8, an increase of over 8 points from the year before. This meant that Kepler saved 10.8 more runs than the average fielder. Kepler ranked third in the statistic among MLB outfielders, falling behind Mookie Betts and Jacoby Jones. Kepler became an elite defensive force in the game, leading the league in range with 9.7 (per RngR (Range Runs), a stat that tracks how good fielders are at getting to balls in their vicinity. His development track took the next step in 2019. A season after his defensive breakout, Kepler somehow got better. He upped his fielding percentage to a perfect 1.000, and increased his other defensive metrics. Kepler went on to finish second in UZR with a mark of 12.7, behind only Harrison Bader’s 12.9. His RngR led the league once again topped the MLB with a mark of 10.7. Every single one of his defensive number improved after an already dominant 2018, which is nearly impossible to complete.
Now that’s a lot of stats, but the most important thing to take from that is this: Max Kepler is really, REALLY good at defense. He passes the eye test, and the stats show he’s even better than he looks. Not only that, but he’s been getting better every season since he reached the majors full-time. That’s an important sign that the improvements he has made aren’t going anywhere any time soon.
Reason #2: Max Kepler is a Left-handed Clutch Hero
Max Kepler also has significant advantage that most hitters don’t have. He’s left-handed in the batter’s box. A large majority of batters hit from the other side of the box, and this gives an advantage to right-handed pitchers. However, those same right-handers make up close to 70% of the league, giving lefties an advantage. Throughout Kepler’s career, he has used this to his advantage and been far more successful against right-handed pitching:
.242/.328/.466 against Right-Handed Pitchers.
.227/.295/.385 against Left-Handed Pitchers.
This is a huge difference, and with the MLB moving to it’s new three batter minimum rule for the 2020 season, it means Kepler will have more opportunities than ever before to face right-handers. This also helps the Minnesota Twins in big situations, as Kepler will receive more favorable matchups.
In 2019, Kepler was downright dominant with men in scoring position, batting .309, 71 points higher than his batting average without baserunners to knock home. He only struck out 13 times over 116 plate appearances (11.6%), while plating 48 RBIs. He got even better with multiple runners on base, runners specifically on third, or with two outs, consistently getting hits and keeping innings going. He became an important part of the team leading walk-off victories and knocking home valuable runs. He was the always there when the team needed him most.
This has been a trend for Kepler. He has continued to improve at the clutch aspect of the game, and it has made him even more valuable to the Twins, and with this being continued improvement, it looks to hold up in 2020.
Reason #3: The Analytics Back Kepler Up
A lot of baseball purists don’t trust analytics, but time and again, analytics prove to be correct. Batting Average on balls in play, or BABIP, helps determine how much luck a player has when hitting. If a batter has a higher batting average than his BABIP, he’s getting lucky with some help from bad defense. If a batter has a lower BA than his BABIP, then they are a little unlucky. Kepler’s BABIP has been within ten points of his batting average throughout his entire career. His numbers are always extremely close to the projected by the Sabermetric stats. In 2019, that was especially the case.
Kepler greatly improved his wOBA (weighted on-base average) and xwOBA (expected wOBA), with numbers similar to Matt Chapman and Gleyber Torres. The Minnesota Twins as a team improved significantly in these categories, showing the improvement made as a team and how the improvement is maintainable. Finally, Kepler’s rate of 10.1% walk rate and 16.6% strikeout rate stayed at a similar rate as they were in 2018, proving he worked at maintaining improvements from the previous years in addition to making new improvements going forward.
Bottom Line:
Max Kepler made hug steps forward as a key member of the Minnesota Twins last season. He improved the launch angle of his swing, worked smarter on defense, and improved his game when his team needed him most. All signs point to this success rolling over into 2020.