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Do the Minnesota Twins have enough starting pitching?

By Chris Schad

ST. PETERSBURG, FL - MAY 31: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins acknowledges the crowd after being removed in the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on May 31, 2019 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - MAY 31: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins acknowledges the crowd after being removed in the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on May 31, 2019 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images) /
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OAKLAND, CA – JULY 02: Jake Odorizzi #12 of the Minnesota Twins pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the bottom of the first inning of a Major League Baseball game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on July 2, 2019 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA – JULY 02: Jake Odorizzi #12 of the Minnesota Twins pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the bottom of the first inning of a Major League Baseball game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on July 2, 2019 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

Jake Odorizzi

Why he’ll succeed in 2020: In the first year of Wes Johnson’s tenure with the Twins, he had several reclamation projects he could hang his hat on. With Martin Perez and Kyle Gibson both fading in the second half however, the biggest improvement in the starting rotation came on Odorizzi’s right arm.

In 2019, Odorizzi went from inconsistent starter to dominant ace in the first half holding an ERA under 2.00 (1.92 to be exact) through his first 13 starts. At the heart of it was a change mechanically, as Odorizzi completely ditched his slider (21.0% usage rate in 2018 with .323 WOBA) to use his cutter significantly more (2.4% in ’18 to 18.5% in ’19 with .281 WOBA).

With his cutter gaining just under four inches from 2018 to 2019, he was able to keep hitters off guard and logged a career-high 10.1 K/9 rate that led to his first All-Star selection. With the strongest start of any Twins starter in the ALDS (5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 5 K in Game 3), it’s the type of performance Minnesota was hoping for by bringing him back on a $17.8 million qualifying offer.

Why that’s not a given: Odorizzi was great in the first half of the season, but much like his cutter counterpart Perez, teams seemed to figure him out after the first couple of months.

The month of July was a glaring example of this as Odorizzi couldn’t seem to get out of the ruts he avoided in the first three months. In five starts, Odorizzi only lasted 23 innings and was blasted to the tune of a 7.43 ERA. The good news is this was the lone month where Odorizzi struggled, but it also saw him revert to a five-to-six inning pitcher for the rest of the season.

The reality is that the Twins aren’t going to see Odorizzi duplicate his month of May (4-0, 0.94 ERA) again, but if he can be somewhere in the middle, he’d be a reliable third or fourth starter in this rotation.

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